Future projections of biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe with two integrated assessment models

Projections of future changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) are of increasing importance to inform policy and decision-making on options for conservation and sustainable use of BES. Scenario-based modelling is a powerful tool to assess these future changes. This study assesses the consequences for BES in Europe under four socio-environmental scenarios designed from a BES perspective. We evaluated these scenarios using two integrated assessment models (IMAGE-GLOBIO and CLIMSAVE IAP, respectively). Our results showed that (i) climate and land use change will continue to pose significant threats to biodiversity and some ecosystem services, even in the most optimistic scenario; (ii) none of the four scenarios achieved overall preservation of BES in Europe; and (iii) targeted policies (e.g. on climate change, biodiversity conservation and sustainable land management) and behavioural change (e.g. reducing meat consumption, water-saving behaviour) reduced the magnitude of BES loss. These findings stress the necessity of more ambitious policies and actions if BES in Europe are to be safeguarded. We further found that the multi-modelling approach was critical to account for complementary BES dimensions and highlighted different sources of uncertainties (e.g. related to land use allocation, driving forces behind BES changes, trade assumptions), which facilitated nuanced and contextualised insights with respect to possible BES futures

Combining policy analyses, exploratory scenarios, and integrated modelling to assess land use policy options

Scenario-based approaches provide decision makers with accessible storylines of potential future changes. The parameterisation of such storylines as input variables for integrated assessment models allows using models as a test bed for assessing the effects of alternative land use policy options in different scenarios. However, the potential of this kind of policy-screening analysis can be further improved by assessing the institutional compatibility of the policy options under review. The aim of this paper is to explore the added value of combining institutions-oriented policy analyses with scenario-modelling approaches for improved assessments of EU land use policy options. We describe an expert-based, stepwise process to combine four scenario storylines and two integrated assessment model approaches (CLIMSAVE & IMAGE-GLOBIO) with a procedure for institutional compatibility assessment. Among the subsidies we assessed were those for technology-driven intensification of agricultural production, which would contribute to decreasing demand for cropland across a range of scenarios. In regionalised policy designs, they also contribute to ecological effectiveness, and higher costs of governing. Subsidies to promote biomass production can have negative effects on ecosystems including land conversion, conversion of grassland into cropland as well as conversion of natural forests into managed forests. These effects can to some extent be mitigated by careful policy design which considers the institutional context and features cross-sectoral coordination. An integrated Ecosystem Services Framework policy could accommodate regionalised policy designs and cross-sectoral coordination, however, it can operate only under specific circumstances and needs particular efforts. Rural development approaches are another alternative which feature expansion of cropland by means of a large-scale, bottom-up transformation based on voluntary changes in behaviour, flexibility, participation, and local and regional collaboration. Apart from a vast number of interdisciplinary lessons learned, we also gained insights from the science-policy interface. A weak EU appeared as a plausible scenario from a scientific perspective, given the current political environment. However, it appreaded to be unacceptable at EU level policy making. We decided to maintain scientific independence and looked at policy options also in the context of a weak EU yielding environmentally beneficial opportunities for regional decision making at the expense of relevance of our scenarios to EU level policy makers

New EU-scale environmental scenarios until 2050 – scenario process and initial scenario applications

Understanding uncertainties and risks can be considered to be the main motivation behind environmental scenario studies to assess potential economic, environmental, social or technical developments and their expected consequences for society and environment. The scenario study presented in this paper was designed to contribute to the question of how natural capital and ecosystem services may evolve in Europe under different socio-environmental conditions. The study was conducted as part of OpenNESS, an on-going EU FP7 research project. We present the iterative participatory scenario process, the storylines and drivers, examples for regional applications, as well as initial feedback from stakeholders. In a participatory iterative approach four scenarios were developed for the period to 2050, involving regional and EU-level users and stakeholders. Subsequently, scenarios were successfully contextualised and applied in regional place-based studies under widely differing socio-environmental conditions. Regional teams used different approaches to adapt storylines and drivers to the regional contexts. In an internal evaluation process among regional stakeholders some participants expressed concerns about the scenario method. Suggestions are made how to overcome these limitations. However, most participants approved the scenario method, especially in terms of provoking discussions, and confirmed the usefulness and applicability of the approach

Opportunity Maps for Sustainable Use of Natural Capital

The Dutch government has the ambition to make its policies more “nature-inclusive”. Nature-inclusive policy recognises the wide range of services provided by ecosystems and biodiversity, aiming for sustainable use of these services. Hence, an important objective of the Dutch government is to more explicitly address these benefits and the effects of interventions on natural capital in decision-making processes. Our study contributes to this objective by identifying areas with opportunities for sustainable use of natural capital. It helps policymakers and other stakeholders to focus their policies and to set priorities.We developed a method for making opportunity maps that identify potential areas to use natural capital in a sustainable way. This method was applied to three cases: sustainable food production, flood safety improvement, and sustainable drinking water productio

Opportunity Maps for Sustainable Use of Natural Capital

The Dutch government has the ambition to make its policies more “nature-inclusive”. Nature-inclusive policy recognises the wide range of services provided by ecosystems and biodiversity, aiming for sustainable use of these services. Hence, an important objective of the Dutch government is to more explicitly address these benefits and the effects of interventions on natural capital in decision-making processes. Our study contributes to this objective by identifying areas with opportunities for sustainable use of natural capital. It helps policymakers and other stakeholders to focus their policies and to set priorities.We developed a method for making opportunity maps that identify potential areas to use natural capital in a sustainable way. This method was applied to three cases: sustainable food production, flood safety improvement, and sustainable drinking water productio

A review of studies assessing ecosystem services provided by urban green and blue infrastructure

Urban green and blue infrastructure (GBI) and associated ecosystem services (ES) are increasingly recognized for their potential to address urban sustainability challenges. This has resulted in an increase in studies quantifying ES in cities. In this review, we analysed 850 peer-reviewed publications to characterize urban ES assessment in terms of geographical location, urban GBI type and methodological aspects (e.g. ES indicators). The analyses covered six ES: local temperature regulation, stormwater regulation, waste treatment, air quality regulation, pollination, and recreation and aesthetic appreciation. The majority of ES assessments focused on local temperature regulation (36%) and recreation and aesthetic appreciation (23%) and assessments were often conducted within unspecified green space (30%) and parks (26%). A common method to assess GBI performance was the comparison of ES delivery along a gradient of vegetation cover (24%). Moreover, assessments used a wide variety of ES indicators. Most assessments quantified ecosystem properties (59%), while a minority assessed actual benefits to people, recognized values or societal demands. To advance insights in the effectiveness of GBI, we recommend increased research attention towards i) increasing the coverage of less studied ES, GBI types and geographical regions, ii) quantifying actual benefits of GBI by comparing ES supply and societal demand, and iii) comparing effectiveness across different GBI types and in relation to grey infrastructure

New EU-scale environmental scenarios until 2050 – scenario process and initial scenario applications

Understanding uncertainties and risks can be considered to be the main motivation behind environmental scenario studies to assess potential economic, environmental, social or technical developments and their expected consequences for society and environment. The scenario study presented in this paper was designed to contribute to the question of how natural capital and ecosystem services may evolve in Europe under different socio-environmental conditions. The study was conducted as part of OpenNESS, an on-going EU FP7 research project. We present the iterative participatory scenario process, the storylines and drivers, examples for regional applications, as well as initial feedback from stakeholders. In a participatory iterative approach four scenarios were developed for the period until 2050, involving regional and EU-level users and stakeholders. Subsequently, scenarios were successfully contextualised and applied in regional place-based studies under widely differing socio-environmental conditions. Regional teams used different approaches to adapt storylines and drivers to the regional contexts. In an internal evaluation process among regional stakeholders some participants expressed concerns about the scenario method. Suggestions are made how to overcome these limitations. However, most participants approved the scenario method, especially in terms of provoking discussions, and confirmed the usefulness and applicability of the approach.JRC.D.3-Land Resource

European nature in the plural : finding common ground for a next policy agenda

European landscapes contain a rich natural diversity that is cherished by many citizens. Protection of this diversity is laid down in policy strategies on European and national levels. Nevertheless, a recent review of the EU Biodiversity Strategy showed that additional efforts are needed to achieve the targets for 2020. Even more effort is required to realise the 2050 vision – which is to protect, value and restore EU biodiversity and the ecosystem services it provides. People consider ‘nature’ to constitute landscapes, ecosystems and biodiversity. Recent reviews and trend analyses have shown there to be three overall challenges for the coming decades, with respect to nature conservation: ensuring sufficient space and favourable conditions for nature, improving nature considerations in economic sectors, and encouraging people’s engagement in naturerelated efforts. For this study, we explored four ‘perspectives’ on nature in 2050, with the aim to inform a future agenda for nature policies beyond 2020. The rationale behind working with perspectives is that broadening the concept of nature may lead to greater citizen and business engagement in efforts that would benefit nature. The perspectives on nature cover a range of guiding values about nature protection and describe what people perceive to be nature: In Strengthening Cultural Identity, people feel connected with nature and landscape, and consider this an integral part of their local and regional communities and essential to a fulfilling life. In Allowing Nature to Find its Way, people feel strongly about the great intrinsic value of natural processes and species, and they define nature by its dynamic processes and believe it should be left to its own devices. In Going with the Economic Flow, nature must suit people’s lifestyles, and businesses and individual citizens take the initiative in nature development. In Working with Nature, people try to work with natural processes and strive for an optimal, long-term delivery of ecosystem services, for the benefit of both society and the economy