Time series analysis and forecasting of the number of canine rabies confirmed cases in Thailand based on national-level surveillance data

IntroductionRabies, a deadly zoonotic viral disease, accounts for over 50,000 fatalities globally each year. This disease predominantly plagues developing nations, with Thailand being no exception. In the current global landscape, concerted efforts are being mobilized to curb human mortalities attributed to animal-transmitted rabies. For strategic allocation and optimization of resources, sophisticated and accurate forecasting of rabies incidents is imperative. This research aims to determine temporal patterns, and seasonal fluctuations, and project the incidence of canine rabies throughout Thailand, using various time series techniques.MethodsMonthly total laboratory-confirmed rabies cases data from January 2013 to December 2022 (full dataset) were split into the training dataset (January 2013 to December 2021) and the test dataset (January to December 2022). Time series models including Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), Neural Network Autoregression (NNAR), Error Trend Seasonality (ETS), the Trigonometric Exponential Smoothing State-Space Model with Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (TBATS), and Seasonal and Trend Decomposition using Loess (STL) were used to analyze the training dataset and the full dataset. The forecast values obtained from the time series models applied to the training dataset were compared with the actual values from the test dataset to determine their predictive performance. Furthermore, the forecast projections from January 2023 to December 2025 were generated from models applied to the full dataset.ResultsThe findings revealed a total of 4,678 confirmed canine rabies cases during the study duration, with apparent seasonality in the data. Among the models tested with the test dataset, TBATS exhibited superior predictive accuracy, closely trailed by the SARIMA model. Based on the full dataset, TBATS projections suggest an annual average of approximately 285 canine rabies cases for the years 2023 to 2025, translating to a monthly average of 23 cases (range: 18–30). In contrast, SARIMA projections averaged 277 cases annually (range: 208–214).DiscussionThis research offers a new perspective on disease forecasting through advanced time series methodologies. The results should be taken into consideration when planning and conducting rabies surveillance, prevention, and control activities

Incidence of short-term complications after sterilization between pre-operative antibiotic versus pre- and post-operative antibiotic administration in female cats

A sterilization program is implied to control the cat population and set up as national rabies control activities. In Thailand, a few studies have been conducted on postoperative complications and undesired incidents after massive sterilization. This study determined the incidence of short-term sterilization complications in cats with or without postoperative antibiotic administration and the risk of short-term surgical complications. The investigators conducted a clinical trial study. Female cats (n=492) who participated in Chiang Mai municipal birth control activity were assessed and recorded those complications between with and without postoperative antibiotics. The risk factors were analyzed using risk ratios (RR) with a 95% confidence level. Twenty-five cats (5.08%) showed short-term complications in the study. The incidence of short-term complications was not significantly different between cats with postoperative antibiotics (4.92%) and without postoperative antibiotics (5.24%). Cats with external parasites had 2.35 times a short-term complication (RR=1.05-5.27;95%Cl). Duration in captive area, this factor showed that prolong of a cat kept in cage or indoor area play role as a protective factor which less than 2-day in a cage or indoor as the baseline, the risk ratios were 0.38 in 5-day and 0.18 in 7-day, respectively. In conclusion, cat sterilization without post-operative antibiotic administration could be performed under ordinary operation with an aseptic concept

Trend and seasonality analysis of milk production from dairy cooperatives in Chiang Mai

Analysis of trend and seasonality for production data is essential for establishing planning and strategy for future marketing. The aims of this study were 1) to determine the trend and seasonality of milk production and 2) to compare the quantity of milk among dairy cooperatives in Chiang Mai. Monthly milk production data from 7 dairy cooperatives and a company collected during 2016-2020 were analyzed for trend and seasonality using time series methods. Overall milk productions in 2019 was compared among dairy cooperative using a general linear mixed model. Results showed that most of the dairy cooperatives showed an increasing trend for milk production. The milk productions from all dairy cooperatives had a similar seasonality pattern as the highest milk production was found in the period of March to May. Among dairy cooperative, Chaiprakarn was the top rank in milk production (2581.73±50.46 tons/month). This study provided essential information for dairy cooperative boards, government sectors, private sectors, and other stakeholders to plan and manage the amount of milk in the future

The current state of biosecurity and welfare of ornamental fish population in pet fish stores in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand

Aquaculture has undergone extensive development in recent decades due to its use as a source of protein for human consumption, as models for scientific research, and as pets. The purpose of this study was to survey ornamental fish stores in Chiang Mai province, Thailand to identify practices which affect life quality and welfare of pet fish including general management, biosecurity management, and knowledge about fish disease and drug usage of ornamental fish store owners. The results show that most pet fish stores have poor husbandry in terms of fish health based on the observed incidence of skin erosion and fin rot (92.86%) and white spots on the skin (78.57%) in store fish. Moreover, treatment of these health conditions were performed by experienced people working in the stores without consulting a veterinarian. The top three drugs used for treatment included malachite green oxalate, trichlorfon, and formalin. Interestingly, oxytetracycline and chlortetracycline were also used frequently to treat fish disease. Despite a lack of formal training in fish management, fish health, and drug usage in ornamental fish, the knowledge of owners about fish disease and antibacterial agent usage was determined to be of an intermediate level based on testing. The information gained from this study can be used in future studies to identify stressors that affect pet fish welfare and to investigate biosecurity and ornamental fish welfare in the other sectors of the ornamental fish trade supply chain

Management factors affecting physical health and welfare of tourist camp elephants in Thailand

Background Variation in management across elephant camps likely has differential effects on the well-being of elephants. Methods This study calculated body condition, foot health and skin wound scores (WSs) for 122 elephants from 15 elephant camps in Chiang Mai province, and examined relationships to management factors using a multi-variable modeling approach. Results The majority of elephants had high body condition scores (BCS) indicative of being overweight or obese, mild foot problems, but few visible wounds. Females had higher BCSs than males, as did elephants provided a water source at night. Increasing age was associated with higher foot and WSs. Higher WSs were observed in about a quarter of the cases where mahouts carried a hook. Wounds related to saddle riding were rare. Elephants that rested on sand floors at night had a decreased risk of high WSs compared to elephants that rested on compact dirt floors. Discussion Findings emphasize the need for elephant camps to adjust management activities that negatively affect body condition (e.g., feeding too many sweet treats), foot health (e.g., hard substrates) and wounding (e.g., misuse of equipment) to improve health and welfare of this population

Individual and flock immunity responses of naïve ducks on smallholder farms after vaccination with H5N1 Avian Influenza vaccine: a study in a province of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

In Vietnam, vaccination has played a crucial role in the national strategy for the prevention and control of H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). This study aimed to evaluate antibody responses of immunologically naïve domestic ducks to H5N1 avian influenza vaccine currently used in the national mass vaccination program of Vietnam. Blood samples of 166 ducks reared on smallholder farms were individually collected at three sampling time points, namely, right before vaccination, 21 days after primary vaccination, and 21 days after booster vaccination. Vaccine-induced antibody titers of duck sera were measured by the hemagglutination inhibition assay. Temporal differences in mean antibody titers were analyzed using the generalized least-squares method. No sampled ducks showed anti-H5 seropositivity pre-vaccination. The geometric mean titer (GMT) of the vaccinated ducks was 5.30 after primary vaccination, with 80% of the vaccinated ducks showing seropositivity. This result indicates that the immunity of duck flocks met the targets of the national poultry H5N1 HPAI mass vaccination program. GMT and seropositive rates of the ducks were 6.48 and 96.3%, respectively, after booster vaccination, which were significantly higher than those after primary vaccination. Flock-level seroprotection rate significantly increased from 68% to 84.7%, whereas variability in GMT titers decreased from 34.87% to 26.3%. This study provided important information on humoral immune responses of ducks to the currently used H5N1 vaccine under field conditions. Our findings may help guide veterinary authorities in planning effective vaccine protocols for the prevention and control of H5N1 in the target poultry population

Antimicrobial resistance characteristics of Extended Spectrum Beta Lactamase (ESBL)- producing Escherichia coli from dairy farms in the Sleman district of Yogyakarta province, Indonesia

Extended Spectrum Beta Lactamase (ESBL)-producing Escherichia coli (E. coli) infections are a global health challenge resulting from human contact with infected animals and contaminated farm environments. This study aims to identify antimicrobial resistance patterns of ESBL-producing E. coli isolated from dairy farms in the Sleman District of Yogyakarta Province, Indonesia. Ninety-three dairy farms with a history of antibiotic use in the previous 6 months were identified. Samples were collected from 6 different sources (feces, milk, wastewater, animal drinking water, feed and rinses of workers’ hands) on each farm during August through November 2020. These samples were cultured with conventional microbiological methods for the isolation of ESBL-producing E. coli. ESBL-producing E. coli was identified in one or more of the sources in 54% (50/93) of the dairy farms sampled. Fecal samples were the most commonly positive (25%) while wastewater, animal drinking water feed, milk and hand rinses were positive at 16%, 10%, 5%, 4% and 3% respectively. Colonies from each positive sample were screened for antibiotic susceptibility test using the Vitek-2 system. Resistance to trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole, tetracycline and gentamicin were found in 74%, 63% and 48% of the isolates, respectively. Multidrug resistant (MDR) was identified in 50% (63/127) of the isolates. In conclusion, ESBL-producing E. coli appears widespread in dairy farms using antibiotics and antimicrobial resistance among these bacteria is common in this study area. Further study of the risk of human transmission from contaminated cattle and their environments could benefit the national antimicrobial resistance strategic plans

The first study on the impact of lumpy skin disease outbreaks on monthly milk production on dairy farms in Khon Kaen, Thailand

Background and Aim: Outbreaks of lumpy skin disease (LSD) have resulted in substantial economic losses to the dairy industry in Thailand. This study aimed to determine the influence of LSD outbreaks on monthly milk production levels. Materials and Methods: Milk production for dairy farms located in Khon Kaen Province, Thailand, belonging to the Khon Kaen Dairy Cooperative, was affected by LSD outbreaks from May to August of 2021. The resulting data were analyzed using general linear mixed models. Results: It was estimated that the LSD outbreak caused economic losses totaling 2,413,000 Thai Baht (68,943 USD) over the outbreak period. The monthly farm milk production level in May differed from the levels in June and August. Dairy farmers experienced losses between 8.23 and 9.96 tons of milk each month, which equated to between 4180 and 14,440 Thai Baht (119.43 and 412.57 USD) in monthly income. Conclusion: This study demonstrated that LSD outbreaks on dairy farms resulted in significant farm milk production losses. Our findings will increase awareness among authorities and stakeholders in the dairy industry of Thailand, as well as to assist in the prevention of future LSD outbreaks and minimize the negative impacts of LSD

Monitoring of white striping and wooden breast cases and impacts on quality of breast meat collected from commercial broilers ()

Objective This study aimed at investigating white striping (WS) and wooden breast (WB) cases in breast meat collected from commercial broilers. Methods A total of 183 breast samples were collected from male Ross 308 broilers slaughtered at the age of 6 weeks (n = 100) and 7 weeks (n = 83). The breasts were subjected to meat defect inspection, meat quality determination and histology evaluation. Results Of 183, 4 breasts from 6-week-old broilers were classified as non-defective while the others exhibited the WS lesion. Among the 6-week-old birds, the defective samples from the medium size birds (carcass weight ≤2.5 kg) showed mild to moderate WS degree with no altered meat quality. Some of the breasts from the 6-week-old birds with carcass weight above 2.5 kg exhibited WB in accompanied with the WS condition. Besides of a reduction of protein content, increases in collagen matter and pH values in the defective samples (p<0.05), no other impaired quality indices were detected within this group. All 7-week-old broilers yielded carcasses weighing above 2.5 kg and showed abnormal characteristics with progressive severity. The breasts affected with severe WS and WB showed the greatest cook loss, hardness, springiness and chewiness (p<0.05). Development of WB induced significantly increased drip loss in the samples (p<0.05). Histology indicated necrotic events in the defective myofibers. Based on logistic regression, increasing percent breast weight by one unit enhanced the chance of WS and WB development with advanced severity by 50.9% and 61.0%, respectively. Delayed slaughter age from 6 to 7 weeks increased the likelihood of obtaining increased WS severity by 56.3%. Conclusion Cases of WS and WB defects in Southeast Asia have been revealed. Despite few cases of the severe WS and WB, such abnormal conditions significantly impaired technological properties and nutritional quality of broiler breasts

Seasonal patterns of oxidative stress markers in captive Asian elephants in Thailand and relationships to elephant endotheliotropic herpesvirus shedding

IntroductionOxidative stress refers to an imbalance between oxidant and antioxidant activity and accumulation of reactive oxygen species, which can have detrimental effects on animal health. Annual fluctuations in oxidative stress status can occur, increasing disease susceptibility during certain time periods. However, a full understanding of factors related to oxidative stress in Asian elephants and how to mitigate the negative consequences is lacking.MethodsThis study measured six serum oxidative stress markers [reactive oxygen species (ROS), malondialdehyde (MDA), 8-hydroxydeoxyguanosine (8-OHdG), albumin, glutathione peroxidase (GPx), and catalase] and two stress markers [serum cortisol and fecal glucocorticoid metabolites (fGCM)] in 23 captive Asian elephants in Thailand over a 12 months period to examine relationships with age and season.ResultsSeasonal variations were observed, with several markers exhibiting significantly higher concentrations in the summer (ROS, MDA, 8-OHdG, albumin) and lower values during the rainy/winter seasons (MDA, 8-OHdG, albumin, catalase). By contrast, GPx was the only marker to be highest during the rainy season. For the stress markers, higher fGCM concentrations were noted during the rainy season, which contrasts with earlier studies showing more activity in the winter (tourist season). Positive correlations were found between the temperature-humidity index and ROS, GPx, and fGCM, while a negative correlation was observed with serum albumin. Elephant endotheliotropic herpesvirus (EEHV) shedding events were associated with higher concentrations of ROS and MDA. A moderate negative correlation was observed between 8-OHdG and the PCR threshold cycle of EEHV shedding (Ct), indicating DNA damage may be involved in EEHV shedding in elephants.DiscussionResults revealed significant age and seasonal effects on several oxidative stress markers, indicating those factors should be considered in study design and data interpretation. There also may be physiological adaptations in oxidative stress conditions in relation to environmental changes that could impact health outcomes