The Influence of Alcohol Warning Labels on Consumers’ Choices of Wine and Beer

This study aims to analyse the influence of alternative formats of health warnings on French and Italian Millennial consumers’ choices of beer and wine. Two Discrete Choice Experiments were built for wine and beer and two Latent Class choice models were applied in order to verify the existence of different consumer profiles. Results show that young consumers’ choices for wine and beer are influenced by framing, design and visibility of warnings. In both countries, the acceptance of warnings is higher for beer than for wine and in both cases consumers show higher utility for a logo on the front label: on the neck with a neutral message in the case of beer; on the front, without a message for wine. Latent Class choice models highlight the existence of different consumers’ groups with different levels of warning influencing their choices. In order to apply policies conducting to health benefits, our results suggest the need to focus on young individuals to communicate the risks of alcohol abuse through targeted messages and, more generally, to make them aware of the potential negative effects of excessive consumption of both wine and beer

Constant amplitude and post-overload fatigue crack growth behavior in PM aluminum alloy AA 8009

A recently developed, rapidly solidified, powder metallurgy, dispersion strengthened aluminum alloy, AA 8009, was fatigue tested at room temperature in lab air. Constant amplitude/constant delta kappa and single spike overload conditions were examined. High fatigue crack growth rates and low crack closure levels compared to typical ingot metallurgy aluminum alloys were observed. It was proposed that minimal crack roughness, crack path deflection, and limited slip reversibility, resulting from ultra-fine microstructure, were responsible for the relatively poor da/dN-delta kappa performance of AA 8009 as compared to that of typical IM aluminum alloys

A Bayesian approach to the follow-up of candidate gravitational wave signals

Ground-based gravitational wave laser interferometers (LIGO, GEO-600, Virgo and Tama-300) have now reached high sensitivity and duty cycle. We present a Bayesian evidence-based approach to the search for gravitational waves, in particular aimed at the followup of candidate events generated by the analysis pipeline. We introduce and demonstrate an efficient method to compute the evidence and odds ratio between different models, and illustrate this approach using the specific case of the gravitational wave signal generated during the inspiral phase of binary systems, modelled at the leading quadrupole Newtonian order, in synthetic noise. We show that the method is effective in detecting signals at the detection threshold and it is robust against (some types of) instrumental artefacts. The computational efficiency of this method makes it scalable to the analysis of all the triggers generated by the analysis pipelines to search for coalescing binaries in surveys with ground-based interferometers, and to a whole variety of signal waveforms, characterised by a larger number of parameters.Comment: 9 page

Bayesian coherent analysis of in-spiral gravitational wave signals with a detector network

The present operation of the ground-based network of gravitational-wave laser interferometers in "enhanced" configuration brings the search for gravitational waves into a regime where detection is highly plausible. The development of techniques that allow us to discriminate a signal of astrophysical origin from instrumental artefacts in the interferometer data and to extract the full range of information are some of the primary goals of the current work. Here we report the details of a Bayesian approach to the problem of inference for gravitational wave observations using a network of instruments, for the computation of the Bayes factor between two hypotheses and the evaluation of the marginalised posterior density functions of the unknown model parameters. The numerical algorithm to tackle the notoriously difficult problem of the evaluation of large multi-dimensional integrals is based on a technique known as Nested Sampling, which provides an attractive alternative to more traditional Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We discuss the details of the implementation of this algorithm and its performance against a Gaussian model of the background noise, considering the specific case of the signal produced by the in-spiral of binary systems of black holes and/or neutron stars, although the method is completely general and can be applied to other classes of sources. We also demonstrate the utility of this approach by introducing a new coherence test to distinguish between the presence of a coherent signal of astrophysical origin in the data of multiple instruments and the presence of incoherent accidental artefacts, and the effects on the estimation of the source parameters as a function of the number of instruments in the network.Comment: 22 page

Ambulatory surgery for perianal Crohn’s disease. Study of feasibility

Background. One-third of Crohn’s disease (CD) patients present perianal fistula. The gold standard in the diagnosis and treatment of symptomatic perianal disease (PAD) in CD is the exploration of the anal canal and distal rectum under anesthesia (EUA). This procedure is mainly conducted as a day case surgery. Unfortunately, it is not always possible to proceed within the ideal timing and any delay may well represent a relevant clinical issue. The aim of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of outpatient treatment of symptomatic perianal fistulas in CD patients. Methods. All CD patients under regular follow-up at our inflammatory bowel disease referral center, presenting with symptomatic perianal fistulas, were offered surgical consultation. The data of patients were prospectively collected for three years (February 2014 to February 2017) for the purpose of the study. All clinical information, including previous EUA and/or records from MRI and endoscopic ultrasound, was included. Outpatient anal canal and distal rectum exploration and treatment (OE) were undertaken during the specialist surgical consultation. Fistulas were classified according to Parks’s classification; the type of outpatient treatment and compliance of patients were recorded. Pain was assessed by VAS at the time of the procedure and during the first control. Patients were followed up in the surgical clinic in relation to the study. Results. Ninety-two CD patients with symptomatic perianal fistulas had surgical consultation during the study period. OE was offered to all but 18 patients who fulfilled the exclusion criteria or had an extremely severe disease; six patients refused the OE (8.11%). Of the 68 patients undergoing OE, eleven (16.18%) had previous surgery for perianal disease. The OE was accomplished in sixty-one patients (89.71%), while in 7 patients, it was abandoned for scarce compliance. Nine patients (14.75%) underwent drainage of perianal abscess; in 3 of them, it was possible to probe the fistula tract, find the internal orifice, and pass a loose seton. Overall, setonage was performed in 50 patients (81.97%). Rectovaginal setons were placed in 3 patients and more than one seton (up to 3) in 6 cases. Fistulotomy was performed in 4 simple subcutaneous fistulous tracts. Concordance with the preoperative findings was found in 54 out of 61 patients. EUA was scheduled at the time of OE for the 7 patients who did not complete the procedure. All sixty-one patients who had the OE were followed up for a minimum of 12 months. Conclusions. This preliminary study indicates that OE in CD patients with symptomatic perianal fistulas is safe and feasible in a high-volume referral center. It might provide several benefits, including patients’ logistics, reduce or remove patients’ symptoms and discomfort, allow for a timely start of medical therapy, and avoid further complications

Consumers’ reactions to nutrition and ingredient labelling for wine – A cross-country discrete choice experiment

The purpose of this study is to examine consumers' reactions to the introduction of nutrition and ingredient labelling for wine, a product that is so far still exempt from mandatory nutrition and ingredient labelling. It also analyses the effect of positive and negative information about the use of ingredients in wine on consumers' choice. Representative samples for wine consumers from three distinctly different countries representing old and new wine markets (Australia, n = 745; Germany, n = 716; Italy, n = 715) completed a discrete choice experiment (DCE) with graphically simulated wine back labels. For each country, respondents were randomly allocated to a reference group and two different treatment conditions where they received newspaper-like information (positive, negative) before making choices. Results for the reference condition show that consumers across all three countries have a significant positive utility for detailed nutrition information. Instead, ingredient information only receives a positive utility in Italy, whereas German and Australian respondents do not receive utility from ingredient labelling. When consumers in the treatment group are confronted with negative media information the attribute importance of ingredients significantly increases across all three countries, clean labelled products without ingredients are preferred, and a significantly higher share of consumers in Germany and Italy prefer not to buy any wine. The treatment effect of positive media information on consumers’ wine choice is lower than that of negative information. The results of the study have implications for the pending new regulation of wine labelling and for communication strategies of the wine industry that should actively inform consumers about the necessity of ingredients in wine production

Studying stellar binary systems with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna using Delayed Rejection Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

Bayesian analysis of LISA data sets based on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods has been shown to be a challenging problem, in part due to the complicated structure of the likelihood function consisting of several isolated local maxima that dramatically reduces the efficiency of the sampling techniques. Here we introduce a new fully Markovian algorithm, a Delayed Rejection Metropolis-Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo method, to efficiently explore these kind of structures and we demonstrate its performance on selected LISA data sets containing a known number of stellar-mass binary signals embedded in Gaussian stationary noise.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures, accepted in CQG (GWDAW-13 proceedings

Detecting extreme mass ratio inspiral events in LISA data using the Hierarchical Algorithm for Clusters and Ridges (HACR)

One of the most exciting prospects for the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is the detection of gravitational waves from the inspirals of stellar-mass compact objects into supermassive black holes. Detection of these sources is an extremely challenging computational problem due to the large parameter space and low amplitude of the signals. However, recent work has suggested that the nearest extreme mass ratio inspiral (EMRI) events will be sufficiently loud that they might be detected using computationally cheap, template-free techniques, such as a time-frequency analysis. In this paper, we examine a particular time-frequency algorithm, the Hierarchical Algorithm for Clusters and Ridges (HACR). This algorithm searches for clusters in a power map and uses the properties of those clusters to identify signals in the data. We find that HACR applied to the raw spectrogram performs poorly, but when the data is binned during the construction of the spectrogram, the algorithm can detect typical EMRI events at distances of up to $\sim2.6$Gpc. This is a little further than the simple Excess Power method that has been considered previously. We discuss the HACR algorithm, including tuning for single and multiple sources, and illustrate its performance for detection of typical EMRI events, and other likely LISA sources, such as white dwarf binaries and supermassive black hole mergers. We also discuss how HACR cluster properties could be used for parameter extraction.Comment: 21 pages, 11 figures, submitted to Class. Quantum Gravity. Modified and shortened in light of referee's comments. Updated results consider tuning over all three HACR thresholds, and show 10-15% improvement in detection rat