Manual de Planificação de Evacuação por Tsunami

Este manual tem como objectivo prestar informação detalhada e acessível, bem como uma metodologia abrangente de criação de planos para a evacuação de populações devido a tsunami. Desta forma, fica facultado aos decisores integrados nas comunidades ou outros actores semelhantes um guia detalhado sobre como implementar um plano de evacuação totalmente desenvolvido em três etapas: elaboração da primeira instância válida de plano de evacuação, revisão a médio prazo e revisão e integração a longo prazo. A determinação do risco de tsunami e todas as implicações subsequentes relativas ao plano de evacuação são baseadas no conhecimento da altura de onda de tsunami expectável e no tempo de chegada previsível da primeira onda devastadora. O primeiro parâmetro permite calcular a área em risco e o segundo fornece indicações sobre o tempo disponível para a concretização da evacuação. A evacuação deve ser feita numa determinada rede de estradas ou caminhos. Neste contexto, se necessário, a metodologia prevê a inclusão de rotas de fuga adicionais a serem construídas e/ou locais seguros, de modo a produzir um plano de evacuação totalmente funcional que preencha os requisitos básicos. Os locais seguros (abrigos) são locais situados a elevada altitude, em terreno natural ou em construções artificiais, incluindo edifícios com altura superior a três pisos. A metodologia descreve ainda o modo de implementar o plano de evacuação através da marcação das rotas de fuga identificadas e dos abrigos reais, bem como o modo de disseminar a informação à população afectada. No âmbito da revisão a médio prazo, o plano de evacuação deve ser mantido de forma constante, garantindo as medidas de autoridade apropriadas. A revisão a longo prazo, de um ponto de vista final, mantém o acompanhamento de toda a informação necessária para cumprir apropriadamente o plano de evacuação: integração com sistemas de aviso prévio existentes, com outros planos de emergência e a verificação de obrigações legais. Numa perspectiva idealista, o plano de evacuação deve ser revisto conjuntamente com a população afectada, de modo a garantir a máxima aceitação possível. Neste contexto, se necessário, deverão ser feitas adaptações para garantir o bom funcionamento de todo o plano, no contexto do seu desempenho maximizado. O manual apresenta igualmente os resultados obtidos a partir de entrevistas realizadas com pessoas potencialmente afectadas (em Setúbal), terminando com as dificuldades e limitações que podem surgir durante a geração de planos de evacuação. Este trabalho foi realizado no âmbito do projecto europeu co-financiado FP6 SCHEMA (SCenarios for Hazard-induced Emergencies MAnagement, www.schemeproject.org). O anexo contém uma descrição dos propósitos e objectivos alcançados do projecto, juntamente com a lista de parceiros.JRC.DG.G.7-Traceability and vulnerability assessmen

Handbook of Tsunami Evacuation Planning - SCHEMA (Scenarios for Hazard-induced Emergencies Management), Project n° 030963, Specific Targeted Research Project, Space Priority

This handbook is dedicated to provide thorough and hands-on information in order to produce fully-comprehensive methodology of tsunami evacuation plan generation. Hence community-employed decision makers or similar stakeholders are supplied with a detailed guideline to implement a fully-fledged evacuation plan within three stages : set-up of valid first instance of evacuation plan, mid-term revision, and long-term revision and integration. Local tsunami risk assessment and all subsequent implications on evacuation planning are based on (1) knowing the to-be-expected tsunami wave height, and (2) the to-be-expected arrival time of the first devastating tsunami wave. The first parameter helps to calculate the area at risk ; the second parameter gives an indication of how fast the evacuation has to take place. Consequently, the evacuation plan instance must guarantee that a certain number of affected persons has to be brought onto safe areas within a given time limit. Safe areas (shelters) are higher located places, either on natural ground, or on artificially built-up constructions including building higher than three stores. Evacuation has to take place on a given network of suitable roads or paths. In this context, if necessary, the methodology foresees also the inclusion of additionally to be built escape routes and/or safe places in order to produce a fully working evacuation plan that fulfills the basic requirements. The methodology also explains how to implement a valid instance of evacuation plan by marking the identified escape routes and shelters in reality, and how to disseminate all information to the affected population. Within a mid-term review the evacuation plan has to be maintained constantly and appropriate authority-own measures have to be guaranteed. The long-term review, finally, keeps track of all other information needed to run the evacuation plan properly : integration with early-warning systems, integration with other emergency plans, checking of legal obligations. In addition, the whole evacuation plan must be reviewed together with the affected population and a maximum of acceptance be obtained. In this contaxt, and if necessary, adaptations should be made in order to guarantee the well-functioning of the whole plan within its best performance.JRC.DG.G.7-Traceability and vulnerability assessmen

Meat, eggs, dairy products, and risk of breast cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort

Background: A Western diet is associated with breast cancer risk. Objective: We investigated the relation of meat, egg, and dairy product consumption with breast cancer risk by using data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Design: Between 1992 and 2003, information on diet was collected from 319,826 women. Disease hazard ratios were estimated with multivariate Cox proportional hazard models. Results: Breast cancer cases (n = 7119) were observed during 8.8 y (median) of follow-up. No consistent association was found between breast cancer risk and the consumption of any of the food groups under study, when analyzed by both categorical and continuous exposure variable models. High processed meat consumption was associated with a modest increase in breast cancer risk in the categorical model (hazard ratio: 1.10; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.20; highest compared with lowest quintile: P for trend = 0.07). Subgroup analyses suggested an association with butter consumption, limited to premenopausal women (hazard ratio: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.53; highest compared with lowest quintile: P for trend = 0.21). Between-country heterogeneity was found for red meat (Q statistic = 18.03; P = 0.05) and was significantly explained (P = 0.023) by the proportion of meat cooked at high temperature. Conclusions: We have not consistently identified intakes of meat, eggs, or dairy products as risk factors for breast cancer. Future studies should investigate the possible role of high-temperature cooking in the relation of red meat intake with breast cancer risk. Am J Clin Nutr 2009;90:602-12

A Generic Framework for Tsunami Evacuation Planning

The paper describes how a fully valid tsunami evacuation plan is generated, implemented and maintained in three stages. As such an end-to-end framework of interlinked tasks and procedures is proposed which, at the end, is applicable by any stakeholder involved independently whether this stakeholder has appropriate calculation tools available or not. The evacuation plan itself is based on two input parameters: tsunami wave height and arrival time which should be the output of scientific simulations which, in turn, simulate realistic scenarios applicable at any shoreline location. The simulation had been tested at several test sites throughout the Mediterranean Sea.JRC.G.7-Digital Citizen Securit

Projection of Forest Fire Danger due to Climate Change in the French Mediterranean Region

Fire occurrence and behaviour in Mediterranean-type ecosystems strongly depend on the air temperature and wind conditions, the amount of fuel load and the drought conditions that drastically increase flammability, particularly during the summer period. In order to study the fire danger due to climate change for these ecosystems, the meteorologically based Fire Weather Index (FWI) can be used. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, which is part of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS), has been validated and recognized worldwide as one of the most trusted and important indicators for meteorological fire danger mapping. A number of FWI system components (Fire Weather Index, Drought Code, Initial Spread Index and Fire Severity Rating) were estimated and analysed in the current study for the Mediterranean area of France. Daily raster-based data-sets for the fire seasons (1st May–31st October) of a historic and a future time period were created for the study area based on representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, outputs of CNRM-SMHI and MPI-SMHI climate models. GIS spatial analyses were applied on the series of the derived daily raster maps in order to provide a number of output maps for the study area. The results portray various levels of changes in fire danger, in the near future, according to the examined indices. Number of days with high and very high FWI values were found to be doubled compared to the historical period, in particular in areas of the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (PACA) region and Corsica. The areas with high Initial Spread Index and Seasonal Spread Index values increased as well, forming compact zones of high fire danger in the southern part of the study area, while the Drought Code index did not show remarkable changes. The current study on the evolution of spatial and temporal distribution of forest fire danger due to climate change can provide important knowledge to the decision support process for prevention and management policies of forest fires both at a national and EU level

Assessing the Effects of Forest Fires on Interconnected Critical Infrastructures under Climate Change. Evidence from South France

The present work introduces a case study on the climate resilience of interconnected critical infrastructures to forest fires, that was performed within the framework on H2020 EU-CIRCLE project (GA 653824). It was conducted in South France, one of the most touristic European regions, and also one of the regions at the highest forest fire risk that is projected to be amplified under future climate conditions. The case study has been implemented through a co-creation framework with local stakeholders, which is critical in moving beyond physical damages to the infrastructures, introducing the elements of infrastructure business continuity and societal resilience. Future forest fires extremes are anticipated to impact the interconnections of electricity and transportation networks that could further cascade to communities throughout South France. The work highlighted the benefits of enhancing co-operation between academia, emergency responders, and infrastructure operators as a critical element in enhancing resilience through increased awareness of climate impacts, new generated knowledge on fire extremes and better cooperation between involved agencies

Assessing the Effects of Forest Fires on Interconnected Critical Infrastructures under Climate Change. Evidence from South France

The present work introduces a case study on the climate resilience of interconnected critical infrastructures to forest fires, that was performed within the framework on H2020 EU-CIRCLE project (GA 653824). It was conducted in South France, one of the most touristic European regions, and also one of the regions at the highest forest fire risk that is projected to be amplified under future climate conditions. The case study has been implemented through a co-creation framework with local stakeholders, which is critical in moving beyond physical damages to the infrastructures, introducing the elements of infrastructure business continuity and societal resilience. Future forest fires extremes are anticipated to impact the interconnections of electricity and transportation networks that could further cascade to communities throughout South France. The work highlighted the benefits of enhancing co-operation between academia, emergency responders, and infrastructure operators as a critical element in enhancing resilience through increased awareness of climate impacts, new generated knowledge on fire extremes and better cooperation between involved agencies

Erratum to: Guidelines for the use and interpretation of assays for monitoring autophagy (3rd edition) (Autophagy, 12, 1, 1-222, 10.1080/15548627.2015.1100356

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