Simulation based inference for exoplanet characterization

With the advent of new ground and space-based instruments that image exoplanets and record their spectra across a broader wavelength range and at higher spectral resolutions, complex atmospheric models are becoming crucial for a thorough characterization. This includes a detailed description of the clouds and their physics. However, since the microphysics of the clouds is not observable, this makes characterization challenging due to the presence of latent parameters which makes the likelihood intractable and restricts characterization to either simplistic models of clouds, or time consuming approximations of the likelihood function. As the parameter space expands, this framework is bound to reach its limits. Hence in this work, we suggest leveraging a novel deep learning approach called Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE). NPE is a simulation based inference (SBI) algorithm that directly estimates the posterior, hence sidestepping the need to compute the likelihood. Once trained, the network provides an estimate for the posterior distribution of any given observation. The key factor in this approach is that the density estimator is amortized, meaning that, once trained, the inference itself does not require simulations and can be repeated several times with different observations, hence saving a lot of time.Simulation-based Inference for exoplanet characterizatio

Neural posterior estimation for exoplanetary atmospheric retrieval

Retrieving the physical parameters from spectroscopic observations of exoplanets is key to understanding their atmospheric properties. Exoplanetary atmospheric retrievals are usually based on approximate Bayesian inference and rely on sampling-based approaches to compute parameter posterior distributions. Accurate or repeated retrievals, however, can result in very long computation times due to the sequential nature of sampling-based algorithms. We aim to amortize exoplanetary atmospheric retrieval using neural posterior estimation (NPE), a simulation-based inference algorithm based on variational inference and normalizing flows. In this way, we aim (i) to strongly reduce inference time, (ii) to scale inference to complex simulation models with many nuisance parameters or intractable likelihood functions, and (iii) to enable the statistical validation of the inference results. We evaluate NPE on a radiative transfer model for exoplanet spectra petitRADTRANS, including the effects of scattering and clouds. We train a neural autoregressive flow to quickly estimate posteriors and compare against retrievals computed with MultiNest. NPE produces accurate posterior approximations while reducing inference time down to a few seconds. We demonstrate the computational faithfulness of our posterior approximations using inference diagnostics including posterior predictive checks and coverage, taking advantage of the quasi-instantaneous inference time of NPE. Our analysis confirms the reliability of the approximate posteriors produced by NPE. The accuracy and reliability of the inference results produced by NPE establishes it as a promising approach for atmospheric retrievals. Amortization of the posterior inference makes repeated inference on several observations computationally inexpensive since it does not require on-the-fly simulations, making the retrieval efficient, scalable, and testable.Comment: The paper has been submitted to AandA after a final revisio

The JWST Early Release Science Program for Direct Observations of Exoplanetary Systems: Best Practices for Data Collection in Cycle 2 and Beyond

We present a set of recommended best practices for JWST data collection for members of the community focussed on the direct imaging and spectroscopy of exoplanetary systems. These findings and recommendations are based on the early analysis of the JWST Early Release Science Program 1386, "High-Contrast Imaging of Exoplanets and Exoplanetary Systems with JWST." Our goal is for this information to be useful for observers in preparation of JWST proposals for Cycle 2 and beyond. In addition to compiling a set of best practices from our ERS program, in a few cases we also draw on the expertise gained within the instrument commissioning programs, as well as include a handful of data processing best practices. We anticipate that this document will be regularly updated and resubmitted to arXiv.org to ensure that we have distributed our knowledge of best-practices for data collection as widely and efficiently as possible.Comment: Not yet submitted for publication. Intended only to be a community resource for JWST Cycle 2 proposal

The JWST Early Release Science Program for Direct Observations of Exoplanetary Systems IV: NIRISS Aperture Masking Interferometry Performance and Lessons Learned

We present a performance analysis for the aperture masking interferometry (AMI) mode on board the James Webb Space Telescope Near Infrared Imager and Slitless Spectrograph (JWST/NIRISS). Thanks to self-calibrating observables, AMI accesses inner working angles down to and even within the classical diffraction limit. The scientific potential of this mode has recently been demonstrated by the Early Release Science (ERS) 1386 program with a deep search for close-in companions in the HIP 65426 exoplanetary system. As part of ERS 1386, we use the same dataset to explore the random, static, and calibration errors of NIRISS AMI observables. We compare the observed noise properties and achievable contrast to theoretical predictions. We explore possible sources of calibration errors, and show that differences in charge migration between the observations of HIP 65426 and point-spread function calibration stars can account for the achieved contrast curves. Lastly, we use self-calibration tests to demonstrate that with adequate calibration, NIRISS AMI can reach contrast levels of $\sim9-10$ mag. These tests lead us to observation planning recommendations and strongly motivate future studies aimed at producing sophisticated calibration strategies taking these systematic effects into account. This will unlock the unprecedented capabilities of JWST/NIRISS AMI, with sensitivity to significantly colder, lower mass exoplanets than ground-based setups at orbital separations inaccessible to JWST coronagraphy.Comment: 20 pages, 12 figures, submitted to AAS Journal

The JWST Early Release Science Program for Direct Observations of Exoplanetary Systems II: A 1 to 20 Micron Spectrum of the Planetary-Mass Companion VHS 1256-1257 b

We present the highest fidelity spectrum to date of a planetary-mass object. VHS 1256 b is a $<$20 M$_\mathrm{Jup}$ widely separated ($\sim$8\arcsec, a = 150 au), young, planetary-mass companion that shares photometric colors and spectroscopic features with the directly imaged exoplanets HR 8799 c, d, and e. As an L-to-T transition object, VHS 1256 b exists along the region of the color-magnitude diagram where substellar atmospheres transition from cloudy to clear. We observed VHS 1256~b with \textit{JWST}'s NIRSpec IFU and MIRI MRS modes for coverage from 1 $\mu$m to 20 $\mu$m at resolutions of $\sim$1,000 - 3,700. Water, methane, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, sodium, and potassium are observed in several portions of the \textit{JWST} spectrum based on comparisons from template brown dwarf spectra, molecular opacities, and atmospheric models. The spectral shape of VHS 1256 b is influenced by disequilibrium chemistry and clouds. We directly detect silicate clouds, the first such detection reported for a planetary-mass companion.Comment: Accepted ApJL Iterations of spectra reduced by the ERS team are hosted at this link: https://github.com/bemiles/JWST_VHS1256b_Reduction/tree/main/reduced_spectr

The \textit{JWST} Early Release Science Program for Direct Observations of Exoplanetary Systems III: Aperture Masking Interferometric Observations of the star HIP\,65426 at 3.8 μm\boldsymbol{3.8\,\rm{\mu m}}

We present aperture masking interferometry (AMI) observations of the star HIP 65426 at $3.8\,\rm{\mu m}$ as a part of the \textit{JWST} Direct Imaging Early Release Science (ERS) program obtained using the Near Infrared Imager and Slitless Spectrograph (NIRISS) instrument. This mode provides access to very small inner working angles (even separations slightly below the Michelson limit of ${}0.5\lambda/D$ for an interferometer), which are inaccessible with the classical inner working angles of the \textit{JWST} coronagraphs. When combined with \textit{JWST}'s unprecedented infrared sensitivity, this mode has the potential to probe a new portion of parameter space across a wide array of astronomical observations. Using this mode, we are able to achieve a contrast of $\Delta m_{F380M}{\sim }7.8$\,mag relative to the host star at a separation of {\sim}0.07\arcsec but detect no additional companions interior to the known companion HIP\,65426\,b. Our observations thus rule out companions more massive than 10{-}12\,\rm{M\textsubscript{Jup}} at separations ${\sim}10{-}20\,\rm{au}$ from HIP\,65426, a region out of reach of ground or space-based coronagraphic imaging. These observations confirm that the AMI mode on \textit{JWST} is sensitive to planetary mass companions orbiting at the water frost line, even for more distant stars at $\sim$100\,pc. This result will allow the planning and successful execution of future observations to probe the inner regions of nearby stellar systems, opening essentially unexplored parameter space.Comment: 15 pages, 9 figures, submitted to ApJ Letter

The JWST Early Release Science Program for the Direct Imaging and Spectroscopy of Exoplanetary Systems

The direct characterization of exoplanetary systems with high-contrast imaging is among the highest priorities for the broader exoplanet community. As large space missions will be necessary for detecting and characterizing exo-Earth twins, developing the techniques and technology for direct imaging of exoplanets is a driving focus for the community. For the first time, JWST will directly observe extrasolar planets at mid-infrared wavelengths beyond 5 μm, deliver detailed spectroscopy revealing much more precise chemical abundances and atmospheric conditions, and provide sensitivity to analogs of our solar system ice-giant planets at wide orbital separations, an entirely new class of exoplanet. However, in order to maximize the scientific output over the lifetime of the mission, an exquisite understanding of the instrumental performance of JWST is needed as early in the mission as possible. In this paper, we describe our 55 hr Early Release Science Program that will utilize all four JWST instruments to extend the characterization of planetary-mass companions to ∼15 μm as well as image a circumstellar disk in the mid-infrared with unprecedented sensitivity. Our program will also assess the performance of the observatory in the key modes expected to be commonly used for exoplanet direct imaging and spectroscopy, optimize data calibration and processing, and generate representative data sets that will enable a broad user base to effectively plan for general observing programs in future Cycles

The JWST Early-release Science Program for Direct Observations of Exoplanetary Systems II: A 1 to 20 μ m Spectrum of the Planetary-mass Companion VHS 1256–1257 b

We present the highest fidelity spectrum to date of a planetary-mass object. VHS 1256 b is a MJup widely separated (∼8″, a = 150 au), young, planetary-mass companion that shares photometric colors and spectroscopic features with the directly imaged exoplanets HR 8799c, d, and e. As an L-to-T transition object, VHS 1256 b exists along the region of the color–magnitude diagram where substellar atmospheres transition from cloudy to clear. We observed VHS 1256 b with JWST's NIRSpec IFU and MIRI MRS modes for coverage from 1 to 20 μm at resolutions of ∼1000–3700. Water, methane, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, sodium, and potassium are observed in several portions of the JWST spectrum based on comparisons from template brown dwarf spectra, molecular opacities, and atmospheric models. The spectral shape of VHS 1256 b is influenced by disequilibrium chemistry and clouds. We directly detect silicate clouds, the first such detection reported for a planetary-mass companion

The JWST Early Release Science Program for Direct Observations of Exoplanetary Systems. IV. NIRISS Aperture Masking Interferometry Performance and Lessons Learned

We present a performance analysis for the aperture masking interferometry (AMI) mode on board the James Webb Space Telescope Near Infrared Imager and Slitless Spectrograph (JWST/NIRISS). Thanks to self-calibrating observables, AMI accesses inner working angles down to and even within the classical diffraction limit. The scientific potential of this mode has recently been demonstrated by the Early Release Science (ERS) 1386 program with a deep search for close-in companions in the HIP 65426 exoplanetary system. As part of ERS 1386, we use the same data set to explore the random, static, and calibration errors of NIRISS AMI observables. We compare the observed noise properties and achievable contrast to theoretical predictions. We explore possible sources of calibration errors and show that differences in charge migration between the observations of HIP 65426 and point-spread function calibration stars can account for the achieved contrast curves. Lastly, we use self-calibration tests to demonstrate that with adequate calibration NIRISS F380M AMI can reach contrast levels of ∼9–10 mag at ≳λ/D. These tests lead us to observation planning recommendations and strongly motivate future studies aimed at producing sophisticated calibration strategies taking these systematic effects into account. This will unlock the unprecedented capabilities of JWST/NIRISS AMI, with sensitivity to significantly colder, lower-mass exoplanets than lower-contrast ground-based AMI setups, at orbital separations inaccessible to JWST coronagraphy

The JWST Early Release Science Program for Direct Observations of Exoplanetary Systems. V. Do Self-consistent Atmospheric Models Represent JWST Spectra? A Showcase with VHS 1256–1257 b

The unprecedented medium-resolution (R λ ∼ 1500–3500) near- and mid-infrared (1–18 μm) spectrum provided by JWST for the young (140 ± 20 Myr) low-mass (12–20 MJup) L–T transition (L7) companion VHS 1256 b gives access to a catalog of molecular absorptions. In this study, we present a comprehensive analysis of this data set utilizing a forward-modeling approach applying our Bayesian framework, ForMoSA. We explore five distinct atmospheric models to assess their performance in estimating key atmospheric parameters: Teff, log(g), [M/H], C/O, γ, f sed, and R. Our findings reveal that each parameter’s estimate is significantly influenced by factors such as the wavelength range considered and the model chosen for the fit. This is attributed to systematic errors in the models and their challenges in accurately replicating the complex atmospheric structure of VHS 1256 b, notably the complexity of its clouds and dust distribution. To propagate the impact of these systematic uncertainties on our atmospheric property estimates, we introduce innovative fitting methodologies based on independent fits performed on different spectral windows. We finally derived a Teff consistent with the spectral type of the target, considering its young age, which is confirmed by our estimate of log(g). Despite the exceptional data quality, attaining robust estimates for chemical abundances [M/H] and C/O, often employed as indicators of formation history, remains challenging. Nevertheless, the pioneering case of JWST’s data for VHS 1256 b has paved the way for future acquisitions of substellar spectra that will be systematically analyzed to directly compare the properties of these objects and correct the systematics in the models