Dairy Price commodity in Italy: volatility and forecast after milk quotas

The EU dairy industry is facing an unprecedented change since the removal of milk quotas has exposes the sector to the world competition with strongly organized multinational traders. The basic question of this paper is if the milk quota expiration will have any impact on market equilibria and decisions of agents operating at various market levels. This paper has been preceded by two other papers discussing various issues about dairy market in Italy: market asymmetries and consequences for price transmission and presence of oligopoly competition and consequences for price setting. The present analysis uses the time series analysis of weekly dairy prices to test the market behavior before and after quota regime. Volatility was tested with simple CV, SD indexes and more complexes Arch-Garch models including the breaks and changes in market regime correlated to policy adjustments. Results suggest a moderate change in volatility; our explanation is the Italian dairy sector was for long time protected from world market competition and a consistent amount of raw milk processed for cheese production was managed by the coop organization that transferred to the dairy farms the margins realized at other market levels. The future scenario is more pessimistic in absence of any protection: some structural changes needed to face the world competition could have been postponed in this protected market with the OCM. The expected growth of milk supply after quota will determine a decline in the raw milk price becoming closer to the marginal costs of the most efficient dairy farms in the world. This will cause the exit of a great number of dairy farms, the restructuring of the dairy industry and more concentration at retail level

Price Transmission in Vertical Dairy Chains: The Italian Case

At a theoretic level, price transmission does not provide a clear signal of competitiveness as many conditions may induce stickiness and even asymmetry in the speed of adjustment to positive and negative changes. While evidence from past EU studies for the dairy sector is mixed, several studies have found evidence of asymmetry in particular countries. However, none to our knowledge have considered evidence for Italy. We examine price dynamics within the chain and test for presence of asymmetry in the transmission of price changes along the chain. Using a parametric test of asymmetry in a multivariate VECM, we find strong evidence of symmetry in co-movement. To explore whether these results are robust with respect to nonlinearity we estimate threshold VECM models and also find strong evidence to reject asymmetry except for the transmission between raw milk and wholesale butter prices. While inference with respect to competitiveness of markets cannot be inferred from evidence of asymmetry, findings of symmetry confirm that the market organization and performance is not controlling price change to be asymmetric

Language, Ethnical Identity and Consumer Behavior: A Cross-Cultural Study of Marketing Communication in the Region FVG

In the multiethnic EU contest, the European Institutions encourage all citizens to be multilingual by learning at least two languages in addition to their mother tongue, including the local languages to maintain alive their cultural backgrounds and preserve their ethnic identity. The objective of this study is to verify whether the local language used in marketing communication strategies could significantly affect the consumers’ preferences for food product and their decisions. The theoretical framework is given by the consumer motivational approach that enlarges the traditional consumer theory including other determinants of consumers decisions as the language and ethnicity; the empirical analysis is performed with the multivariate conjoint analysis to evaluate the influence of the cross cultural influence in consumer’s choice. A number of students from the university of Udin have been interviewed with a questionnaire focusing on preferences for a simulated packed sandwich product distributed by vendor machine inside the University space to test the influence of local language. The results suggest some reactions to the messages reported by package in different languages depending on the level of language knowledge and suggest their use for potential demand segmentation to generate niche markets. These results can be generalized to the many regional markets in the EU where the identity construct evocated by the local language can be used in market communication strategies to increase the local food demand and customization

Check the Dairy Chain efficiency in Italy

This research is an application of the econometric price series to the analysis of dairy chain efficiency in Italy. At a theoretic level, the price transmission and asymmetry in the speed of adjustment to positive and negative price changes is supported by the Industrial Organization, multi market equilibrium, food chain theories. However this does not provide a clear signal of competitiveness as many conditions may induce stickiness (curvature of demand, local cost and externalities, long term contracts,. While evidences from past EU studies about the dairy sector are mixed, several studies have demonstrated the evidence of price asymmetries in different market contests. The aim of this research is to examine the price dynamics along the dairy chain and offer some empirical evidences about the cointegration and asymmetric price transmission at different market levels. The parametric test of asymmetry in a multivariate VECM (vector error correction term), suggests symmetry in co-movement. To explore in deeper whether these results are robust with respect to nonlinearity it is estimated the threshold VECM model; the results suggest to reject the hypothesis of asymmetry with exception for the raw milk and wholesale butter. While market competitiveness can not be inferred only from evidence of asymmetry, these findings support the hypothesis that the market structure and policy in the Italian dairy chain didn’t affect greatly the price asymmetry. However, for the butter market, the public intervention seems to have generated speculative behavior among the operators and generated asymmetric price responses to positive/negative price changes

The Decrease of Uch-L1 Activity Is a Common Mechanism Responsible for Aβ 42 Accumulation in Alzheimer's and Vascular Disease.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a multifactorial pathology causing common brain spectrum disorders in affected patients. These mixed neurological disorders not only include structural AD brain changes but also cerebrovascular lesions. The main aim of the present issue is to find the factors shared by the two pathologies. The decrease of ubiquitin C-terminal hydrolase L1 (Uch-L1), a major neuronal enzyme involved in the elimination of misfolded proteins, was observed in ischemic injury as well as in AD, but its role in the pathogenesis of AD is far to be clear. In this study we demonstrated that Uch-L1 inhibition induces BACE1 up-regulation and increases neuronal and apoptotic cell death in control as well as in transgenic AD mouse model subjected to Bengal Rose, a light-sensitive dye inducing that induces a cortical infarction through photo-activation. Under the same conditions we also found a significant activation of NF-κB. Thus, the restoration of Uch-L1 was able to completely prevent both the increase in BACE1 protein levels and the amount of cell death. Our data suggest that the Uch-L1-mediated BACE1 up-regulation could be an important mechanism responsible for Aβ peptides accumulation in vascular injury and indicate that the modulation of the activity of this enzyme could provide new therapeutic strategies in AD

HER3 Is an Actionable Target in Advanced Prostate Cancer.

It has been recognized for decades that ERBB signaling is important in prostate cancer, but targeting ERBB receptors as a therapeutic strategy for prostate cancer has been ineffective clinically. However, we show here that membranous HER3 protein is commonly highly expressed in lethal prostate cancer, associating with reduced time to castration resistance (CR) and survival. Multiplex immunofluorescence indicated that the HER3 ligand NRG1 is detectable primarily in tumor-infiltrating myelomonocytic cells in human prostate cancer; this observation was confirmed using single-cell RNA sequencing of human prostate cancer biopsies and murine transgenic prostate cancer models. In castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) patient-derived xenograft organoids with high HER3 expression as well as mouse prostate cancer organoids, recombinant NRG1 enhanced proliferation and survival. Supernatant from murine bone marrow-derived macrophages and myeloid-derived suppressor cells promoted murine prostate cancer organoid growth in vitro, which could be reversed by a neutralizing anti-NRG1 antibody and ERBB inhibition. Targeting HER3, especially with the HER3-directed antibody-drug conjugate U3-1402, exhibited antitumor activity against HER3-expressing prostate cancer. Overall, these data indicate that HER3 is commonly overexpressed in lethal prostate cancer and can be activated by NRG1 secreted by myelomonocytic cells in the tumor microenvironment, supporting HER3-targeted therapeutic strategies for treating HER3-expressing advanced CRPC. SIGNIFICANCE: HER3 is an actionable target in prostate cancer, especially with anti-HER3 immunoconjugates, and targeting HER3 warrants clinical evaluation in prospective trials

An Extended Gene Protein/Products Boolean Network Model Including Post-Transcriptional Regulation

Background: Networks Biology allows the study of complex interactions between biological systems using formal, well structured, and computationally friendly models. Several different network models can be created, depending on the type of interactions that need to be investigated. Gene Regulatory Networks (GRN) are an effective model commonly used to study the complex regulatory mechanisms of a cell. Unfortunately, given their intrinsic complexity and non discrete nature, the computational study of realistic-sized complex GRNs requires some abstractions. Boolean Networks (BNs), for example, are a reliable model that can be used to represent networks where the possible state of a node is a boolean value (0 or 1). Despite this strong simplification, BNs have been used to study both structural and dynamic properties of real as well as randomly generated GRNs. Results: In this paper we show how it is possible to include the post-transcriptional regulation mechanism (a key process mediated by small non-coding RNA molecules like the miRNAs) into the BN model of a GRN. The enhanced BN model is implemented in a software toolkit (EBNT) that allows to analyze boolean GRNs from both a structural and a dynamic point of view. The open-source toolkit is compatible with available visualization tools like Cytoscape and allows to run detailed analysis of the network topology as well as of its attractors, trajectories, and state-space. In the paper, a small GRN built around the mTOR gene is used to demonstrate the main capabilities of the toolkit. Conclusions: The extended model proposed in this paper opens new opportunities in the study of gene regulation. Several of the successful researches done with the support of BN to understand high-level characteristics of regulatory networks, can now be improved to better understand the role of post-transcriptional regulation for example as a network-wide noise-reduction or stabilization mechanism

Risk Factors Associated with Adverse Fetal Outcomes in Pregnancies Affected by Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): A Secondary Analysis of the WAPM study on COVID-19

To evaluate the strength of association between maternal and pregnancy characteristics and the risk of adverse perinatal outcomes in pregnancies with laboratory confirmed COVID-19. Secondary analysis of a multinational, cohort study on all consecutive pregnant women with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from February 1, 2020 to April 30, 2020 from 73 centers from 22 different countries. A confirmed case of COVID-19 was defined as a positive result on real-time reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) assay of nasal and pharyngeal swab specimens. The primary outcome was a composite adverse fetal outcome, defined as the presence of either abortion (pregnancy loss before 22 weeks of gestations), stillbirth (intrauterine fetal death after 22 weeks of gestation), neonatal death (death of a live-born infant within the first 28 days of life), and perinatal death (either stillbirth or neonatal death). Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate parameters independently associated with the primary outcome. Logistic regression was reported as odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI). Mean gestational age at diagnosis was 30.6\ub19.5 weeks, with 8.0% of women being diagnosed in the first, 22.2% in the second and 69.8% in the third trimester of pregnancy. There were six miscarriage (2.3%), six intrauterine device (IUD) (2.3) and 5 (2.0%) neonatal deaths, with an overall rate of perinatal death of 4.2% (11/265), thus resulting into 17 cases experiencing and 226 not experiencing composite adverse fetal outcome. Neither stillbirths nor neonatal deaths had congenital anomalies found at antenatal or postnatal evaluation. Furthermore, none of the cases experiencing IUD had signs of impending demise at arterial or venous Doppler. Neonatal deaths were all considered as prematurity-related adverse events. Of the 250 live-born neonates, one (0.4%) was found positive at RT-PCR pharyngeal swabs performed after delivery. The mother was tested positive during the third trimester of pregnancy. The newborn was asymptomatic and had negative RT-PCR test after 14 days of life. At logistic regression analysis, gestational age at diagnosis (OR: 0.85, 95% CI 0.8-0.9 per week increase; p<0.001), birthweight (OR: 1.17, 95% CI 1.09-1.12.7 per 100 g decrease; p=0.012) and maternal ventilatory support, including either need for oxygen or CPAP (OR: 4.12, 95% CI 2.3-7.9; p=0.001) were independently associated with composite adverse fetal outcome. Early gestational age at infection, maternal ventilatory supports and low birthweight are the main determinants of adverse perinatal outcomes in fetuses with maternal COVID-19 infection. Conversely, the risk of vertical transmission seems negligible

\u201cPlanning the Agrifood supply chain: a case study for the FVG region\u201d

The aim of this paper is to discuss the planning of regional Agri-food supply chain using an integrated database territorial information. The objective is to optimize the chain performance using alternative solutions. Evidences are obtained with a case study performed in FVG region applied to maize-crop. Firstly it is explored the chain network composed by farms, collection points and processing plants; then territorial, agronomic and climate information are integrated to simulate realistic production forecast model applied to maize crop. Finally a program from graph analysis is used to allocate the production through the chain. The economic performance is evaluated using the net revenues varying with the intensification of maize production and adoption of different organization solutions (independent and cooperative). Conclusions are that the chain performance is influenced by a combination of technology and organization decisions and the policy maker can use these results to orient their targets about regional planning