Parameter estimation with Bayesian estimation applied to multiple species in the presence of biases and correlations

The original formulation of Bayesian estimation applied to multiple species (BEAMS) showed how to use a data set contaminated by points of multiple underlying types to perform unbiased parameter estimation. An example is cosmological parameter estimation from a photometric supernova sample contaminated by unknown Type Ibc and II supernovae. Where other methods require data cuts to increase purity, BEAMS uses all of the data points in conjunction with their probabilities of being each type. Here we extend the BEAMS formalism to allow for correlations between the data and the type probabilities of the objects as can occur in realistic cases. We show with simple simulations that this extension can be crucial, providing a 50 per cent reduction in parameter estimation variance when such correlations do exist. We then go on to perform tests to quantify the importance of the type probabilities, one of which illustrates the effect of biasing the probabilities in various ways. Finally, a general presentation of the selection bias problem is given, and discussed in the context of future photometric supernova surveys and BEAMS, which lead to specific recommendations for future supernova survey

Long-term efficacy and safety results of taliglucerase alfa through 5years in adult treatment-naïve patients with Gaucher disease

Taliglucerase alfa, the first available plant cell-expressed recombinant therapeutic protein, is an enzyme replacement therapy approved for Gaucher disease (GD). PB-06-001, a pivotal phase 3, multicenter, randomized, double-blind, parallel-dose study investigated taliglucerase alfa 30 or 60U/kg every other week through 9months in treatment-naïve adults with GD; 30-month extension study PB-06-003 followed. Patients completing PB-06-001 and PB-06-003 could continue treatment in PB-06-007. Nineteen patients enrolled in PB-06-007 (30U/kg, n=8; 60U/kg, n=9; dose adjusted, n=2); 17 completed 5 total years of treatment. In these 3 groups, respectively, taliglucerase alfa resulted in mean decreases in spleen volume (-8.7, -6.9, -12.4 multiples of normal), liver volume (-0.6, -0.4, -0.5 multiples of normal), chitotriosidase activity (-83.1%, -93.4%, -87.9%), and chemokine (CC motif) ligand 18 concentration (-66.7%, -83.3%, -78.9%), as well as mean increases in hemoglobin concentration (+2.1, +2.1, +1.8mg/dL) and platelet count (+31,871, +106,800, +34,000/mm3). The most common adverse events were nasopharyngitis and arthralgia. Most adverse events were mild/moderate; no serious adverse events were considered treatment-related. These results demonstrate continued improvement of disease parameters during 5years of taliglucerase alfa therapy in 17 treatment-naive patients with no new safety concerns, extending the taliglucerase alfa clinical efficacy and safety dataset. This study was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01422187

Astrophysical S_{17}(0) factor from a measurement of d(7Be,8B)n reaction at E_{c.m.} = 4.5 MeV

Angular distribution measurements of $^2$H($^7$Be,$^7$Be)$^2$H and $^2$H($^7$Be,$^8$B)$n$ reactions at $E_{c.m.}\sim$~4.5 MeV were performed to extract the astrophysical $S_{17}(0)$ factor using the asymptotic normalization coefficient (ANC) method. For this purpose a pure, low emittance $^7$Be beam was separated from the primary $^7$Li beam by a recoil mass spectrometer operated in a novel mode. A beam stopper at 0$^{\circ}$ allowed the use of a higher $^7$Be beam intensity. Measurement of the elastic scattering in the entrance channel using kinematic coincidence, facilitated the determination of the optical model parameters needed for the analysis of the transfer data. The present measurement significantly reduces errors in the extracted $^7$Be(p,$\gamma$) cross section using the ANC method. We get $S_{17}$~(0)~=~20.7~$\pm$~2.4 eV~b.Comment: 15 pages including 3 eps figures, one figure removed and discussions updated. Version to appear in Physical Review

Statistical classification techniques for photometric supernova typing

Future photometric supernova surveys will produce vastly more candidates than can be followed up spectroscopically, highlighting the need for effective classification methods based on light curves alone. Here we introduce boosting and kernel density estimation techniques which have minimal astrophysical input, and compare their performance on 20 000 simulated Dark Energy Survey light curves. We demonstrate that these methods perform very well provided a representative sample of the full population is used for training. Interestingly, we find that they do not require the redshift of the host galaxy or candidate supernova. However, training on the types of spectroscopic subsamples currently produced by supernova surveys leads to poor performance due to the resulting bias in training, and we recommend that special attention be given to the creation of representative training samples. We show that given a typical non-representative training sample, S, one can expect to pull out a representative subsample of about 10 per cent of the size of S, which is large enough to outperform the methods trained on all of

Refractive Status at Birth: Its Relation to Newborn Physical Parameters at Birth and Gestational Age

Refractive status at birth is related to gestational age. Preterm babies have myopia which decreases as gestational age increases and term babies are known to be hypermetropic. This study looked at the correlation of refractive status with birth weight in term and preterm babies, and with physical indicators of intra-uterine growth such as the head circumference and length of the baby at birth.All babies delivered at St. Stephens Hospital and admitted in the nursery were eligible for the study. Refraction was performed within the first week of life. 0.8% tropicamide with 0.5% phenylephrine was used to achieve cycloplegia and paralysis of accommodation. 599 newborn babies participated in the study. Data pertaining to the right eye is utilized for all the analyses except that for anisometropia where the two eyes were compared. Growth parameters were measured soon after birth. Simple linear regression analysis was performed to see the association of refractive status, (mean spherical equivalent (MSE), astigmatism and anisometropia) with each of the study variables, namely gestation, length, weight and head circumference. Subsequently, multiple linear regression was carried out to identify the independent predictors for each of the outcome parameters.Simple linear regression showed a significant relation between all 4 study variables and refractive error but in multiple regression only gestational age and weight were related to refractive error. The partial correlation of weight with MSE adjusted for gestation was 0.28 and that of gestation with MSE adjusted for weight was 0.10. Birth weight had a higher correlation to MSE than gestational age.This is the first study to look at refractive error against all these growth parameters, in preterm and term babies at birth. It would appear from this study that birth weight rather than gestation should be used as criteria for screening for refractive error, especially in developing countries where the incidence of intrauterine malnutrition is higher

Evaporation residue cross-section measurements for O 16 + Tl 203,205

Evaporation residue cross sections for the 16O+203,205Tl reactions were measured at laboratory beam energies in the range of 82–113 MeV using a gas-filled separator. Transmission efficiency of the separator was estimated using a calibration reaction 16O+197Au and by simulating the evaporation residues angular distributions. Statistical model calculations were performed for both the measured systems. These calculations overestimate the experimental evaporation residue cross sections. This could be attributed to the presence of noncompound nuclear fission. An estimation of noncompound nuclear fission contribution was carried out. Comparison with neighboring systems shows that a slight change in the entrance channel or the compound nucleus properties makes a large difference in evaporation residue cross sections

Appraisal of the Marine Fisheries of Maharashtra

Maharashtra with a coast line of 720 km ranks second among the maritime states of India in respect of marine fish landings. There are 153 landing centres situated in the five coastal districts namely, Thane, Greater Bombay, Raigad, Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg. The state, which has a continental shelf of 89,096 square kilometers, offers rich potential for marine fisheries. The areas of potential fishing grounds in 0-50 m depth and 50-200 m depth are 2.55 and 10.48 million hectares respectively. Fishing takes places almost throughout the year except during the monsoon period. Several types of boats, mechanised and nonmechanised, using different gears land their catches. The exploited marine fish landings in the state are estimated by a well-planned multi-stage startified sampling design followed by the Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute. Bombay duck, non-penaeid prawns, penaeid prawns, croakers, pomfrets, elasmobranchs, perches and ribbonfishes are some of the commercially important groups which form the bulk of landings. From the early sixties the marine fish landings in the state have been steadily progressing mainly owing to the increase in the mechanised fishing. This increase continued up to midseventies and thereafter the landings have more or less stabilised