Производство, потребление и медиа: к постановке модели трехстороннего рынка

. A wide body of literature on economic theory is devoted to the analysis of industrial goods markets with the possibility of advertising influence on demand. However, these models do not view media as industry entities with their own strategic goals and objectives. On the other hand, the main models of behavior of media firms, considering them as platforms connecting consumers with manufacturers (models of two-sided markets), do not take into account the simultaneous consumption of the products of industrial firms and their content by the audience and the production nature of the problems solved by industrial firms. In this regard, this paper proposes a methodology for constructing models of a new type of market, including three types of participants - consumers, media firms and industrial manufacturing firms. In accordance with the proposed methodology, a model of the simplest three-sided market is constructed, for which the questions of existence and properties of equilibrium are discussed. The results of such modeling can find application in the study of intersectoral interaction between the media industry and any industry

Стратегический подход к анализу медиасистемы России

Медиа в современном мире трансформировались в полноценную индустрию, встроенную в национальную экономику своей страны и неразрывно связанную с остальными отраслями. Высокая степень зависимости между основными экономическими показателями отрасли медиа и макроэкономическими показателями обуславливает важность задачи разработки ее долгосрочной стратегии (медиастратегирования). Современная медиаотрасль является драйвером экономического роста страны и благосостояния ее граждан за счет трех базовых каналов влияния. Во-первых, развитие медиасистемы стимулирует технологический и институциональный прогресс телекоммуникационной сферы за счет высокий уровня интеграции этих отраслей. Во-вторых, уровень развития медиасистемы как источника информации и базиса экономики идей по Фелпсу оказывает стимулирующее влияние на уровень предпринимательской активности. В-третьих, развитая медиасистема обладает возможностью самостоятельно удовлетворять ряд индивидуальных потребностей, повышая общий уровень жизни членов общества и приближая его к состоянию эвдемонии. В настоящей работе рассматриваются подходы к разработке стратегии медиасистемы России на основе теории стратегии академика РАН В.Л.Квинта, теории медиа и математической экономики. Для медиасистемы как объекта стратегирования обсуждаются миссия, ценности и задачи, подходы к формулировке и стратегических приоритетов, а в качестве математического аппарата их оценки предлагаются стратегический медиамониторинг, микро- и макроэкономические модели межотраслевых связей, в том числе модели трехсторонних рынков

Macroeconomic indicators of Russia’s media communication industry in 2000-2020: Quantitative analysis

Technological and social processes of last years inspired by the information and communication technologies development, such as processes of digital transformation of society and the convergence of (mass) media, have led to the formation of a new macro-social entity – the media communication industry, integrated into the national and global economy and interacting in various ways with other sectors of the economy and the world media system. At the same time, instrumental methods of data analysis, widely used in economic studies, are still not very common for media communication industry studies. To bridge this gap and answer the question of how the macroeconomic situation affects the media industry and vice versa, the authors conducted a statistical analysis of the joint dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and those of the Russian media communication industry over the past 20 years

Расчетная модель общего равновесия для оценки экономического эффекта ранней диагностики болезни Паркинсона

This paper presents a new CGE model of the Russian economy with a health block. We estimate effects of Parkinson's disease (PD) on the Russian economy and population. We distinguish two mechanisms transmitting effects of the PD: a change in the quality of life of a representative household and a decrease in labor supply due to early retirement caused by PD. Our main focus is on effects of early diagnosis of PD coupled with the use of neuroprotective therapy at the prodromal stage of PD. Calculations showed that the cumulative economic effect of PD on the Russian economy, taking into account the forecast of an increase in the incidence of PD over 30 years, can lead to a loss of real GDP in the amount of -0.86%, and a decrease in the utility of households over the same period in the amount of -1.11% of the consumption level of the base year. The high efficiency of early diagnosis in combination with neuroprotective therapy was shown: the cumulative effect, taking into account the prognosis of an increase in the incidence of PD over 30 years of using this method, can give a gain of about 0.68% of the base year GDP, which is accompanied by an increase in the welfare of a representative consumer in the amount of 0.88 % of the baseline consumption. We show that the prevailing channel of influence of PD on macroeconomic parameters is the effect of a reduction in the supply of labor due to an increase in the disability of patients with PD

Расчетная модель общего равновесия для оценки экономического эффекта ранней диагностики болезни Паркинсона

This paper presents a new CGE model of the Russian economy with a health block. We estimate effects of Parkinson's disease (PD) on the Russian economy and population. We distinguish two mechanisms transmitting effects of the PD: a change in the quality of life of a representative household and a decrease in labor supply due to early retirement caused by PD. Our main focus is on effects of early diagnosis of PD coupled with the use of neuroprotective therapy at the prodromal stage of PD. Calculations showed that the cumulative economic effect of PD on the Russian economy, taking into account the forecast of an increase in the incidence of PD over 30 years, can lead to a loss of real GDP in the amount of -0.86%, and a decrease in the utility of households over the same period in the amount of -1.11% of the consumption level of the base year. The high efficiency of early diagnosis in combination with neuroprotective therapy was shown: the cumulative effect, taking into account the prognosis of an increase in the incidence of PD over 30 years of using this method, can give a gain of about 0.68% of the base year GDP, which is accompanied by an increase in the welfare of a representative consumer in the amount of 0.88 % of the baseline consumption. We show that the prevailing channel of influence of PD on macroeconomic parameters is the effect of a reduction in the supply of labor due to an increase in the disability of patients with PD

Социально-экономические детерминанты болезни Паркинсона для развитых и развивающихся стран

We set and solved the problem of identifying socio-economic determinants of Parkinson's disease (PD) by comparing the characteristics of different countries. Econometric analysis of panel data on 117 countries for 2010-2013 showed that the nature of the impact of a number of factors depends on whether a country belongs to the set of developed or developing economies. For both groups, the incidence of Parkinson's disease increases with life expectancy and decreases with the share of smokers. In addition, for developed countries, the incidence drops with increasing per capita consumption of fish and seafood and increases with amounts of fertilizer applied to the soil per hectare of arable land. For developing countries, the share of rural populations and per capita consumption of alcohol and vegetables are significant factors, with the incidence of PD decreasing with the first factor and increases with the last two. There is also reason to believe that in developing countries, the incidence of PD increases with the level of education; this is due to a decrease in physical activity of the representatives of the professions concerned. The findings are compared with the known results based on the study of patient samples for individual countries, and allow improving them. The results of this work can be used in patient selection procedures for early diagnostics of PD and are particularly important for developing countries where evidence-based recommendations has not yet been available

Оценка эффективности доклинической диагностики болезни Паркинсона методом "затраты-полезность"

Neurodegenerative diseases, Parkinson disease being an example, set challenges to modern societies both in terms of premature deaths and resources spent on treatment of the diseases. Prevention and early diagnostics in particular, are potential directions towards higher economic efficiency of healthcare interventions in this area. We suggest a way to modify the cost-utility approach to evaluation of economic efficiency of an early diagnostics method of Parkinson disease (PD) at the laboratory stage of the diagnostics method. The lack of detailed understanding of the early testing group selection and composition are the major challenges to economic evaluation here. In particular, we consider the approach to diagnose PD at the prodromal stage suggested by Ugrumov 2020. The early diagnostics at the prodromal stage, accompanied by neuroprotective therapy of those identified at high risk of PD, allows postponing PD development for later years. The innovative approach implies saving both direct and indirect costs of PD treatment in comparison with traditional approach but adds costs of testing for the high risk of PD. The latter component may be non-trivial depending on the rules of selection into the group of tested. We suggest a way to modify the cost-utility evaluation procedure so that to take this uncertainty into account. We formulate the economic efficiency condition of the early diagnostics method in terms of the minimal probability of PD in the tested group and estimate the probability based on the Russian data. The latter sets the important threshold for innovative technology when moving from the laboratory into the clinical stage

Экономическая эффективность доклинической диагностики болезни Паркинсона: марковская модель

This article contains a pharmacoeconomic analysis of early (preclinical) diagnosis of Parkinson's disease in Russia. Previous works show that using a combination of socio-economic determinants and a panel of blood biomarkers one may distinguish a Parkinsonism-related “risk group” among the entire population. This group consists of people who are most vulnerable to parkinsonism or are already ill, but at the preclinical stage. Together with the approach traditionally used in the pharmacoeconomics of chronic and long-term diseases, based on the representation of the dynamics of the development of the disease using Markov chains - discrete random processes without memory - this makes it possible to analyze the economic effects of early detection of cases and conducting preventive preclinical therapy. The work investigates the Markov model of Parkinson's disease, consisting of nine states - five states corresponding to the stages HY1-HY5, two preclinical states ("risk group", "prodromal state"). We use as the initial data for the model the probability of transition between states and health-adjusted quality of life (HRQoL) estimates, published in a number of works of researchers affiliated with AbbVie Corporation, and calculate the cost of therapy based on open data on the cost of drugs and procedures in Russian market. Moreover, we show that due to the introduction of preclinical diagnostics and preventive treatment at preclinical stages, identified patients can significantly increase the average survival time (in quality-adjusted life-years) compared to standard therapy, and the average cost per patient until the end of life can be significantly reduced

26th Annual Computational Neuroscience Meeting (CNS*2017): Part 3 - Meeting Abstracts - Antwerp, Belgium. 15–20 July 2017

This work was produced as part of the activities of FAPESP Research,\ud Disseminations and Innovation Center for Neuromathematics (grant\ud 2013/07699-0, S. Paulo Research Foundation). NLK is supported by a\ud FAPESP postdoctoral fellowship (grant 2016/03855-5). ACR is partially\ud supported by a CNPq fellowship (grant 306251/2014-0)