Temporal dynamics of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in the Arabian Peninsula, 2012-2017

Altres ajuts: CERCA Programme/Generalitat de CatalunyaMiddle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) remains a notable disease and poses a significant threat to global public health. The Arabian Peninsula is considered a major global epicentre for the disease and the virus has crossed regional and continental boundaries since 2012. In this study, we focused on exploring the temporal dynamics of MERS-CoV in human populations in the Arabian Peninsula between 2012 and 2017, using publicly available data on case counts and combining two analytical methods. Disease progression was assessed by quantifying the time-dependent reproductive number (TD-Rs), while case series temporal pattern was modelled using the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). We accounted for geographical variability between three major affected regions in Saudi Arabia including Eastern Province, Riyadh and Makkah. In Saudi Arabia, the epidemic size was large with TD-Rs >1, indicating significant spread until 2017. In both Makkah and Riyadh regions, the epidemic progression reached its peak in April 2014 (TD-Rs > 7), during the highest incidence period of MERS-CoV cases. In Eastern Province, one unique super-spreading event (TD-R > 10) was identified in May 2013, which comprised of the most notable cases of human-to-human transmission. Best-fitting ARIMA model inferred statistically significant biannual seasonality in Riyadh region, a region characterised by heavy seasonal camel-related activities. However, no statistical evidence of seasonality was identified in Eastern Province and Makkah. Instead, both areas were marked by an endemic pattern of cases with sporadic outbreaks. Our study suggested new insights into the epidemiology of the virus, including inferences about epidemic progression and evidence for seasonality. Despite the inherent limitations of the available data, our conclusions provide further guidance to currently implement risk-based surveillance in high-risk populations and, subsequently, improve related interventions strategies against the epidemic at country and regional levels

Temporal dynamics of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in the Arabian Peninsula, 2012-2017

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) remains a notable disease and poses a significant threat to global public health. The Arabian Peninsula is considered a major global epicentre for the disease and the virus has crossed regional and continental boundaries since 2012. In this study, we focused on exploring the temporal dynamics of MERS-CoV in human populations in the Arabian Peninsula between 2012 and 2017, using publicly available data on case counts and combining two analytical methods. Disease progression was assessed by quantifying the time-dependent reproductive number (TD-Rs), while case series temporal pattern was modelled using the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). We accounted for geographical variability between three major affected regions in Saudi Arabia including Eastern Province, Riyadh and Makkah. In Saudi Arabia, the epidemic size was large with TD-Rs >1, indicating significant spread until 2017. In both Makkah and Riyadh regions, the epidemic progression reached its peak in April 2014 (TD-Rs > 7), during the highest incidence period of MERS-CoV cases. In Eastern Province, one unique super-spreading event (TD-R > 10) was identified in May 2013, which comprised of the most notable cases of human-to-human transmission. Best-fitting ARIMA model inferred statistically significant biannual seasonality in Riyadh region, a region characterised by heavy seasonal camel-related activities. However, no statistical evidence of seasonality was identified in Eastern Province and Makkah. Instead, both areas were marked by an endemic pattern of cases with sporadic outbreaks. Our study suggested new insights into the epidemiology of the virus, including inferences about epidemic progression and evidence for seasonality. Despite the inherent limitations of the available data, our conclusions provide further guidance to currently implement risk-based surveillance in high-risk populations and, subsequently, improve related interventions strategies against the epidemic at country and regional levels.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Genome sequences of seven foot-andmouth disease virus isolates collected from serial samples from one persistently infected carrier cow in Vietnam

Several foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) carrier cattle were identified in Vietnam by the recovery of infectious virus from oropharyngeal fluid. This report contains the first near-complete genome sequences of seven viruses from sequential samples from one carrier animal collected over the course of 1 year. The characterization of within-host viral evolution has implications for FMDV control strategies

S-Phase Favours Notch Cell Responsiveness in the Drosophila Bristle Lineage

We have studied cell sensitivity to Notch pathway signalling throughout the cell cycle. As model system, we used the Drosophila bristle lineage where at each division N plays a crucial role in fate determination. Using in vivo imaging, we followed this lineage and activated the N-pathway at different moments of the secondary precursor cell cycle. We show that cells are more susceptible to respond to N-signalling during the S-phase. Thus, the period of heightened sensitivity coincided with the period of the S-phase. More importantly, modifications of S-phase temporality induced corresponding changes in the period of the cell's reactivity to N-activation. Moreover, S-phase abolition was correlated with a decrease in the expression of tramtrack, a downstream N-target gene. Finally, N cell responsiveness was modified after changes in chromatin packaging. We suggest that high-order chromatin structures associated with the S-phase create favourable conditions that increase the efficiency of the transcriptional machinery with respect to N-target genes

Mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission with periodic workplace screening

The COVID_model_DRUM.R file contains three functions coded in R. The "covid" function runs a single iteration of the COVID model with outputs (number of individuals in each compartment) recorded on a daily tilmestep. The "sim" function runs multiple simulations of the COVID model, and the "summarize.timesteps" function takes output from the "sim" function and summarizes the median and 95th percent prediction intervals for each tilmestep. See the Readme.txt file for more details.Stochastic mathematical model of SARS-CoV2 transmission in congregate settings (i.e., workplaces/schools) that accounts for asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic, and background “community” transmission. This model can be parameterized to test a range of PCR-screening scenarios (varying frequency, sensitivity, and delay in results) to test their effectiveness at minimizing SARS-CoV2 circulationSwine Disease Eradication Cente