Testing the Bayesian confidence hypothesis

Asking subjects to rate their confidence is one of the oldest procedures in psychophysics. Remarkably, quantitative models of confidence ratings have been scarce. The Bayesian confidence hypothesis (BCH) states that an observer’s confidence rating is monotonically related to the posterior probability of their choice. I will report tests of this hypothesis in two visual categorization tasks: one requiring rapid categorization of a single oriented stimulus, the other a deliberative judgment typically made by scientists, namely interpreting scatterplots. We find evidence against the Bayesian confidence hypothesis in both tasks

Confidence Is the Bridge between Multi-stage Decisions

Demanding tasks often require a series of decisions to reach a goal. Recent progress in perceptual decision-making has served to unite decision accuracy, speed, and confidence in a common framework of bounded evidence accumulation, furnishing a platform for the study of such multi-stage decisions. In many instances, the strategy applied to each decision, such as the speed-accuracy trade-off, ought to depend on the accuracy of the previous decisions. However, as the accuracy of each decision is often unknown to the decision maker, we hypothesized that subjects may carry forward a level of confidence in previous decisions to affect subsequent decisions. Subjects made two perceptual decisions sequentially and were rewarded only if they made both correctly. The speed and accuracy of individual decisions were explained by noisy evidence accumulation to a terminating bound. We found that subjects adjusted their speed-accuracy setting by elevating the termination bound on the second decision in proportion to their confidence in the first. The findings reveal a novel role for confidence and a degree of flexibility, hitherto unknown, in the brain's ability to rapidly and precisely modify the mechanisms that control the termination of a decision.We thank the Wellcome Trust, the Human Frontier Science Program, the Royal Society (Noreen Murray Professorship in Neurobiology to D.M.W.), Howard Hughes Medical Institute, National Eye Institute grant EY11378 to M.N.S., a Sloan Research Fellowship to R.K., and Simons Collaboration on the Global Brain grant 323439 to R.K

Recolección de especies silvestres de papa en Guatemala.

El objetivo de este trabajo fue recolectar germoplasma de especies silvestres de papa, para su conservación, e incremento para ponerlas a disposición a nivel internacional, y reunir datos de campo para continuar con los estudios taxonómicos. De Solanum agrimonifolium se efectuaron 13 recolectas en los departamentos de Huehuetenango, San Marcos, Quetzaltenango, Totonicapan, Sololá y Chimaltenango en altitudes comprendidas de 2.340 a 3.300 msnm; de S. bulbocastanum subsp. partitum se obtuvieron seis recolectas en los departamentos de Huehuetenango y Baja Verapaz; de S. clarum se obtuvieron 17 recolectas en los departamentos de Huehuetenango, San Marcos, Sololá y Totonicapan, en altitudes de 3,000 a 3,500 msnm; de S. demissum solo se encontró una localidad en Totonicapan; y de S. morelliforme se obtuvieron seis recolectas de los departamentos de Huehuetenango, San Marcos y Totonicapan en alturas de 2.900 a 3.050 msnm. Los hábitats, donde estas especies crecen, están muy deteriorados por la deforestación y el cambio de uso del suelo. Se plantean dos áreas para la conservación in situ por la concentración de especies silvestres de papa y porque aún mantienen determinadas áreas casi naturales: 1) La Cumbre de María Tecún en el departamento de Totonicapan, y 2) áreas dispersas en la Sierra de los Cuchumatanes

AFLP analysis reveals a lack of phylogenetic structure within Solanum section Petota

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The secondary genepool of our modern cultivated potato (<it>Solanum tuberosum </it>L.) consists of a large number of tuber-bearing wild <it>Solanum </it>species under <it>Solanum </it>section <it>Petota</it>. One of the major taxonomic problems in section <it>Petota </it>is that the series classification (as put forward by Hawkes) is problematic and the boundaries of some series are unclear. In addition, the classification has received only partial cladistic support in all molecular studies carried out to date.</p> <p>The aim of the present study is to describe the structure present in section <it>Petota</it>. When possible, at least 5 accessions from each available species and 5 individual plants per accession (totally approx. 5000 plants) were genotyped using over 200 AFLP markers. This resulted in the largest dataset ever constructed for <it>Solanum </it>section <it>Petota</it>. The data obtained are used to evaluate the 21 series hypothesis put forward by Hawkes and the 4 clade hypothesis of Spooner and co-workers.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We constructed a NJ tree for 4929 genotypes. For the other analyses, due to practical reasons, a condensed dataset was created consisting of one representative genotype from each available accession. We show a NJ jackknife and a MP jackknife tree. A large part of both trees consists of a polytomy. Some structure is still visible in both trees, supported by jackknife values above 69. We use these branches with >69 jackknife support in the NJ jackknife tree as a basis for informal species groups. The informal species groups recognized are: Mexican diploids, Acaulia, Iopetala, Longipedicellata, polyploid Conicibaccata, diploid Conicibaccata, Circaeifolia, diploid Piurana and tetraploid Piurana.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Most of the series that Hawkes and his predecessors designated can not be accepted as natural groups, based on our study. Neither do we find proof for the 4 clades proposed by Spooner and co-workers. A few species groups have high support and their inner structure displays also supported subdivisions, while a large part of the species cannot be structured at all. We believe that the lack of structure is not due to any methodological problem but represents the real biological situation within section <it>Petota</it>.</p

Prospective Evaluation of Sleep Apnea as Manifestation of Heart Failure in Children

In adults with heart failure, central sleep apnea (CSA), often manifested as Cheyne–Stokes respiration, is common, and has been associated with adverse outcome. Heart failure in children is commonly caused by dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). It is unknown whether children with heart failure secondary to DCM have CSA, and whether CSA is related to the severity of heart failure. In this prospective observational study, 37 patients (<18 year) with heart failure secondary to DCM were included. They underwent polysomnography, clinical and laboratory evaluation and echocardiographic assessment. After a median follow-up time of 2 years, eight patients underwent heart transplantation. CSA (apnea–hypopnea index [AHI] ≥1) was found in 19 % of the patients. AHI ranged from 1.2 to 4.5/h. The occurrence of CSA was not related to the severity of heart failure. Three older patients showed a breathing pattern mimicking Cheyne–Stokes respiration, two of whom required heart transplantation. CSA was found in 19 % of the children with heart failure secondary to DCM. No relation was found with the severity of heart failure. In a small subset of children with severe DCM, a pattern mimicking Cheyne–Stokes respiration was registered