Short paths for first passage percolation on the complete graph

We study the complete graph equipped with a topology induced by independent and identically distributed edge weights. The focus of our analysis is on the weight W_n and the number of edges H_n of the minimal weight path between two distinct vertices in the weak disorder regime. We establish novel and simple first and second moment methods using path counting to derive first order asymptotics for the considered quantities. Our results are stated in terms of a sequence of parameters (s_n) that quantifies the extreme-value behaviour of the edge weights, and that describes different universality classes for first passage percolation on the complete graph. These classes contain both n-independent and n-dependent edge weight distributions. The method is most effective for the universality class containing the edge weights E^{s_n}, where E is an exponential(1) random variable and s_n log n -> infty, s_n^2 log n -> 0. We discuss two types of examples from this class in detail. In addition, the class where s_n log n stays finite is studied. This article is a contribution to the program initiated in \cite{BhaHof12}.Comment: 31 pages, 4 figure

Diabetes alone should not be a reason for withholding adjuvant chemotherapy for stage III colon cancer

Background: With increasing prevalence of diabetes mellitus and colon cancer, the number of patients suffering from both diseases is growing, and physicians are being faced with complicated treatment decisions. Objective: To investigate the association between diabetes and treatment/course of stage III colon cancer and the association between colon cancer and course of diabetes. Materials and Methods: Additional information was collected from the medical records of all patients with both stage III colon cancer and diabetes (n=201) and a random sample of stage III colon cancer patients without diabetes (n=206) in the area of the population-based Eindhoven Cancer Registry (1998–2007). Results: Colon cancer patients without diabetes were more likely to receive adjuvant chemotherapy compared with diabetic colon cancer patients (OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.2–2.7). After adjustment for age, this difference was borderline significant (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.0–2.6). Diabetic patients did not have: significantly more side-effects from surgery or adjuvant chemotherapy; more recurrence from colon cancer; significantly shorter time interval until recurrence; or a poorer disease-free survival or overall survival. Age and withholding of adjuvant chemotherapy were most predictive of all-cause mortality. After colon cancer diagnosis, the dose of antiglycaemic medications was increased in 22% of diabetic patients, resulting in significantly lower glycaemic indexes than before colon cancer diagnosis. Conclusions: Since diabetic patients did not have more side-effects of adjuvant chemotherapy, and adjuvant chemotherapy had a positive effect on survival for both patients with and without diabetes, diabetes alone should not be a reason for withholding adjuvant chemotherapy.Journal of Comorbidity 2011;1(1):19–2

Ecological impact of land reclamation on Jiangsu coast (China):A novel ecotope assessment for Tongzhou Bay

China's continuous and rapid economic growth has led to the reclamation of large sections of the intertidal mud coast in combination with port construction, such as that of the proposed Tongzhou Bay port on the Jiangsu coast. These reclamations threaten the local ecosystem services. An ecotope distribution map was created and a hydrodynamic numerical model of Tongzhou Bay was set up to quantify the impacts of reclamation on the ecosystem. Based on the field data and model results, several abiotic features were classified into 11 ecotopes and visualized in an ecotope map of the Tongzhou Bay ecosystem. Validation with spatial distributions of two threatened shorebird species (bar-tailed godwit and great knot) showed confirmation with the mid-range and low-range littoral zones (inundated from 40% to 100% of a tidal cycle), indicating the importance of the areas with these conditions to these populations. Overlaying the ecotope map with recent and proposed land reclamation schemes revealed a loss of ecotopes, composed of the high-range (42%), mid-range (48%), and low-range (38%) littoral habitats, corresponding to a 44%–45% loss of the most important ecotopes for bar-tailed godwit and great knot (mid-range and low-range littoral zones). These results confirm the applicability of the novel ecotope assessment approach in practice

Building for nature:Preserving threatened bird habitat in port design

The fast economic development of the People's Republic of China has created an increasing demand for usable land, resulting in large-scale land reclamations along the coastal zone. One of these regions is Tongzhou Bay (Jiangsu coast), a region characterized by large intertidal mudflats and deep tidal channels with potential for the development of agri-aquaculture and the construction of a deep-sea port. However, these intertidal mudflats also provide vital ecosystem services and support many wildlife species, including several endangered migratory shorebirds within the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. With increasing realization of the importance of maintaining such ecological values, a more integrated coastal development strategy is needed. This study aims to develop a sustainable integrated design for the Tongzhou Bay port, following a "Building with Nature" approach. We use a morphodynamic model to compute habitat suitability for two shorebird species (Great KnotCalidris tenuirostrisand Bar-tailed GodwitLimosa lapponica). Several port configurations were developed on the basis of three design criteria: (1) create area for future port development, whilst (2) preserving existing high-value ecotopes for shorebirds and (3) enhance the natural accretion rate of such ecotopes. Simulation results showed a clear difference in siltation patterns, preservation and enhancement of preferred ecotopes. This work therefore demonstrates the potential and importance of morphological and habitat suitability modelling when designing large-scale reclamations and port constructions, especially in dynamic areas such as Tongzhou Bay

Till death (or an intruder) do us part: intrasexual-competition in a monogamous Primate

Polygynous animals are often highly dimorphic, and show large sex-differences in the degree of intra-sexual competition and aggression, which is associated with biased operational sex ratios (OSR). For socially monogamous, sexually monomorphic species, this relationship is less clear. Among mammals, pair-living has sometimes been assumed to imply equal OSR and low frequency, low intensity intra-sexual competition; even when high rates of intra-sexual competition and selection, in both sexes, have been theoretically predicted and described for various taxa. Owl monkeys are one of a few socially monogamous primates. Using long-term demographic and morphological data from 18 groups, we show that male and female owl monkeys experience intense intra-sexual competition and aggression from solitary floaters. Pair-mates are regularly replaced by intruding floaters (27 female and 23 male replacements in 149 group-years), with negative effects on the reproductive success of both partners. Individuals with only one partner during their life produced 25% more offspring per decade of tenure than those with two or more partners. The termination of the pair-bond is initiated by the floater, and sometimes has fatal consequences for the expelled adult. The existence of floaters and the sporadic, but intense aggression between them and residents suggest that it can be misleading to assume an equal OSR in socially monogamous species based solely on group composition. Instead, we suggest that sexual selection models must assume not equal, but flexible, context-specific, OSR in monogamous species.Wenner-Gren Foundation, L.S.B. Leakey Foundation, the National Geographic Society, National Science Foundation (BCS- 0621020), the University of Pennsylvania Research Foundation and the Zoological Society of San Diego, German Science Foundation (HU 1746-2/1

An imaging proton spectrometer for short-pulse laser plasma experiments

Ultra intense short pulse laser pulses incident on solid targets can generate energetic protons. In additions to their potentially important applications such as in cancer treatments and proton fast ignition, these protons are essential to understand the complex physics of intense laser plasma interaction. To better characterize these laser-produced protons, we designed and constructed a novel, spatially imaging proton spectrometer that will not only measure proton energy distribution with high resolution, but also provide its angular characteristics. The information obtained from this spectrometer compliments those from commonly used diagnostics including radiochromic film packs, CR39 nuclear track detectors, and non-imaging magnetic spectrometers. The basic characterizations and sample data from this instrument are presented

Full lifetime perspectives on the costs and benefits of lay date variation in tree swallows

Animals must balance various costs and benefits when deciding when to breed. The costs and benefits of breeding at different times have received much attention, but most studies have been limited to investigating short-term season-to-season fitness effects. However, breeding early, versus late, in a season may influence lifetime fitness over many years, trading off in complex ways across the breeder?s lifepan. In this study, we examined the complete life histories of 867 female tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) breeding in Ithaca, New York, between 2002 and 2016. Earlier breeders outperformed later breeders in short-term measures of reproductive output and offspring quality. Though there were weak indications that females paid long-term future survival costs for breeding early, lifetime fledgling output was markedly higher overall in early-breeding birds. Importantly, older females breeding later in the season did not experience compensating life-history advantages that suggested an alternative equal-fitness breeding strategy. Rather, most or all of the swallows appear to be breeding as early as they can, and differences in lay dates appear to be determined primarily by differences in individual quality or condition. Lay date had a significant repeatability across breeding attempts by the same female, and the first lay date of females fledged in our population was strongly influenced by the first lay date of their mothers, indicating the potential for ongoing selection on lay date. By examining performance over the entire lifespan of a large number of individuals, we were able to clarify the relationship between timing of breeding and fitness and gain new insight into the sources of variability in this important life history trait.Fil: Winkler, David Ward. Cornell University; Estados UnidosFil: Hallinger, Kelly K.. Cornell University; Estados UnidosFil: Pegan, Teresa M.. University of Michigan; Estados UnidosFil: Taff, Conor C.. Cornell University; Estados UnidosFil: Verhoeven, Mo A.. University of Groningen; Países BajosFil: Van Oordt, David Chang. Cornell University; Estados UnidosFil: Stager, Maria. University of Montana; Estados UnidosFil: Uehling, Jennifer J.. Cornell University; Estados UnidosFil: Vitousek, Maren N.. Cornell University; Estados UnidosFil: Andersen, Michael J.. University of New Mexico; Estados UnidosFil: Ardia, Daniel R.. Franklin & Marshall College; Estados UnidosFil: Belmaker, Amos. Tel Aviv University; IsraelFil: Ferretti, Valentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Forsman, Anna M.. University Of Central Florida; Estados UnidosFil: Gaul, Jennifer R.. International High School at La Guardia Community College; Estados UnidosFil: Llambias, Paulo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Investigaciones de las Zonas Áridas. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Investigaciones de las Zonas Áridas. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Investigaciones de las Zonas Áridas; ArgentinaFil: Orzechowski, Sophia C.. Harvard University; Estados UnidosFil: Shipley, Ryan. Max Planck Institute For Animal Behavior; AlemaniaFil: Wilson, Maya. Virginia Polytechnic Institute. Department Of Geological Sciences; Estados UnidosFil: Yoon, Hyun Seok. University of Tennessee; Estados Unido

Number needed to treat with ursodeoxycholic acid therapy to prevent liver transplantation or death in primary biliary cholangitis

Objective: The clinical benefit of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has never been reported in absolute measures. The aim of this study was to assess the number needed to treat (NNT) with UDCA to prevent liver transplantation (LT) or death among patients with PBC. Methods: The NNT was calculated based on the untreated LT-free survival and HR of UDCA with respect to LT or death as derived from inverse probability of treatment weighting-adjusted Cox proportional hazard analyses within the Global PBC Study Group database. Results: We included 3902 patients with a median follow-up of 7.8 (4.1-12.1) years. The overall HR of UDCA was 0.46 (95% CI 0.40 to 0.52) and the 5-year LT-free survival without UDCA was 81% (95% CI 79 to 82). The NNT to prevent one LT or death within 5 years (NNT5y) was 11 (95% CI 9 to 13). Although the HR of UDCA was similar for patients with and without cirrhosis (0.33 vs 0.31), the NNT5y was 4 (95% CI 3 to 5) and 20 (95% CI 14 to 34), respectively. Among patients with low alkaline phosphatase (ALP) (≤2× the upper limit of normal (ULN)), intermediate ALP (2-4× ULN) and high ALP (>4× ULN), the NNT5y to prevent one LT or death was 26 (95% CI 15 to 70), 11 (95% CI 8 to 17) and 5 (95% CI 4 to 8), respectively. Conclusion: The absolute clinical efficacy of UDCA with respect to LT or death varied with baseline prognostic characteristics, but was high throughout. These findings strongly emphasise the incentive to promptly initiate UDCA treatment in all patients with PBC and may improve patient compliance