Parameter Sensitivity in LSMs: An Analysis Using Stochastic Soil Moisture Models and ELDAS Soil Parameters

Integration of simulated and observed states through data assimilation as well as model evaluation requires a realistic representation of soil moisture in land surface models (LSMs). However, soil moisture in LSMs is sensitive to a range of uncertain input parameters, and intermodel differences in parameter values are often large. Here, the effect of soil parameters on soil moisture and evapotranspiration are investigated by using parameters from three different LSMs participating in the European Land Data Assimilation System (ELDAS) project. To prevent compensating effects from other than soil parameters, the effects are evaluated within a common framework of parsimonious stochastic soil moisture models. First, soil parameters are shown to affect soil moisture more strongly than the average evapotranspiration. In arid climates, the effect of soil parameters is on the variance rather than the mean, and the intermodel flux differences are smallest. Soil parameters from the ELDAS LSMs differ strongly, most notably in the available moisture content between the wilting point and the critical moisture content, which differ by a factor of 3. The ELDAS parameters can lead to differences in mean volumetric soil moisture as high as 0.10 and an average evapotranspiration of 10%–20% for the investigated parameter range. The parsimonious framework presented here can be used to investigate first-order parameter sensitivities under a range of climate conditions without using full LSM simulations. The results are consistent with many other studies using different LSMs under a more limited range of possible forcing condition

Modeled contrast in the response of the surface energy balance to heat waves for forest and grassland

Observations have shown that differences in surface energy fluxes over grasslands and forests are amplified during heat waves. The role of land-atmosphere feedbacks in this process is still uncertain. In this study, a single-column model (SCM) is used to investigate the difference between forest and grassland in their energy response to heat waves. Three simulations for the period 2005-11 were carried out: a control run using vegetation characteristics for Cabauw (the Netherlands), a run where the vegetation is changed to 100% forest, and a run with 100% short grass as vegetation. A surface evaporation tendency equation is used to analyze the impact of the land-atmosphere feedbacks on evapotranspiration and sensible heat release under normal summer and heat wave conditions with excessive shortwave radiation. Land-atmosphere feedbacks modify the contrast in surface energy fluxes between forest and grass, particularly during heat wave conditions. The surface resistance feedback has the largest positive impact, while boundary layer feedbacks generally tend to reduce the contrast. Overall, forests give higher air temperatures and drier atmospheres during heat waves. In offline land surface model simulations, the difference between forest and grassland during heat waves cannot be diagnosed adequately owing to the absence of boundary layer feedbacks

Dominant patterns of boreal summer interactions between tropics and mid-latitude: causal relationships and the role of timescales

Tropical convective activity represents a source of predictability for mid-latitude weather in the Northern Hemisphere. In winter, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant source of predictability in the tropics and extra-tropics, but its role in summer is much less pronounced and the exact teleconnection pathways are not well understood. Here, we assess how tropical convection interacts with mid-latitude summer circulation at different intraseasonal time-scales and how ENSO affects these interactions. First, we apply maximum covariance analysis (MCA) between tropical convective activity and mid-latitude geopotential height fields to identify the dominant modes of interaction. The first MCA mode connects the South Asian monsoon with the mid-latitude circumglobal teleconnection pattern. The second MCA mode connects the western North Pacific summer monsoon in the tropics with a wave-5 pattern centred over the North Pacific High in the mid-latitudes. We show that the MCA patterns are fairly insensitive to the selected intraseasonal time-scale from weekly to 4-weekly data. To study the potential causal interdependencies between these modes and with other atmospheric fields, we apply causal effect networks (CEN) at different time-scales. CENs extend standard correlation analysis by removing the confounding effects of autocorrelation, indirect links and common drivers. In general, there is a two-way causal interaction between the tropics and mid-latitudes but the strength and sometimes sign of the causal link are time-scale dependent. We introduce causal maps that plot the regionally specific causal effect from each MCA mode. Those maps confirm the dominant patterns of interaction and in addition, highlight specific mid-latitude regions that are most strongly connected to tropical convection. In general, the identified causal teleconnection patterns are only mildly affected by ENSO and the tropical-mid-latitude linkages remain similar. Still, La Niña strengthens the South Asian monsoon generating a stronger response in the mid-latitudes, while during El Niño years, the Pacific pattern is reinforced. This study paves the way for process-based validation of boreal summer teleconnections in (sub)seasonal forecast models and climate models and therefore helps to improve sub-seasonal and climate projections

Soil control on runoff response to climate change in regional climate model simulations

Simulations with seven regional climate models driven by a common control climate simulation of a GCM carried out for Europe in the context of the (European Union) EU-funded Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects (PRUDENCE) project were analyzed with respect to land surface hydrology in the Rhine basin. In particular, the annual cycle of the terrestrial water storage was compared to analyses based on the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) atmospheric convergence and observed Rhine discharge data. In addition, an analysis was made of the partitioning of convergence anomalies over anomalies in runoff and storage. This analysis revealed that most models underestimate the size of the water storage and consequently overestimated the response of runoff to anomalies in net convergence. The partitioning of these anomalies over runoff and storage was indicative for the response of the simulated runoff to a projected climate change consistent with the greenhouse gas A2 Synthesis Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). In particular, the annual cycle of runoff is affected largely by the terrestrial storage reservoir. Larger storage capacity leads to smaller changes in both wintertime and summertime monthly mean runoff. The sustained summertime evaporation resulting from larger storage reservoirs may have a noticeable impact on the summertime surface temperature projections

Seasonal evaluation of the land surface scheme HTESSEL against remote sensing derived energy fluxes of the Transdanubian region in Hungary

The skill of the land surface model HTESSEL is assessed to reproduce evaporation in response to land surface characteristics and atmospheric forcing, both being spatially variable. Evaporation estimates for the 2005 growing season are inferred from satellite observations of the Western part of Hungary and compared to model outcomes. Atmospheric forcings are obtained from a hindcast run with the Regional Climate Model RACMO2. Although HTESSEL slightly underpredicts the seasonal evaporative fraction as compared to satellite estimates, the mean, 10th and 90th percentile of this variable are of the same magnitude as the satellite observations. The initial water as stored in the soil and snow layer does not have a significant effect on the statistical properties of the evaporative fraction. However, the spatial distribution of the initial soil and snow water significantly affects the spatial distribution of the calculated evaporative fraction and the models ability to reproduce evaporation correctly in low precipitation areas in the considered region. HTESSEL performs weaker in dryer areas. In Western Hungary these areas are situated in the Danube valley, which is partly covered by irrigated cropland and which also may be affected by shallow groundwater. Incorporating (lateral) groundwater flow and irrigation, processes that are not included now, may improve HTESSELs ability to predict evaporation correctly. Evaluation of the model skills using other test areas and larger evaluation periods is needed to confirm the results. <br><br> Based on earlier sensitivity analysis, the effect of a number of modifications to HTESSEL has been assessed. A more physically based reduction function for dry soils has been introduced, the soil depth is made variable and the effect of swallow groundwater included. However, the combined modification does not lead to a significantly improved performance of HTESSEL

Epigenetic regulation of adult neural stem cells: implications for Alzheimer's disease.

Published onlineJournal ArticleResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tReviewExperimental evidence has demonstrated that several aspects of adult neural stem cells (NSCs), including their quiescence, proliferation, fate specification and differentiation, are regulated by epigenetic mechanisms. These control the expression of specific sets of genes, often including those encoding for small non-coding RNAs, indicating a complex interplay between various epigenetic factors and cellular functions.Previous studies had indicated that in addition to the neuropathology in Alzheimer's disease (AD), plasticity-related changes are observed in brain areas with ongoing neurogenesis, like the hippocampus and subventricular zone. Given the role of stem cells e.g. in hippocampal functions like cognition, and given their potential for brain repair, we here review the epigenetic mechanisms relevant for NSCs and AD etiology. Understanding the molecular mechanisms involved in the epigenetic regulation of adult NSCs will advance our knowledge on the role of adult neurogenesis in degeneration and possibly regeneration in the AD brain.Internationale Stichting Alzheimer Onderzoek (ISAO)Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO)Maastricht University Medical Centre 

Adaptability and learning Intraprofessional collaboration of residents during the COVID-19 pandemic

CONTEXT: The COVID-19 pandemic created a worldwide public health emergency, in which hospitals created new COVID departments and doctors from different disciplines had to work together. In the Netherlands, a large proportion of doctors in these departments were residents. With knowledge of the disease developing only gradually, the influx of COVID-19 patients called for adaptability, innovative work behavior, and intraprofessional collaboration (intraPC) between residents and between residents and medical specialists. RESEARCH GOAL: This study investigates how the delivery of COVID-19 care in hospital settings altered the way residents develop their sense of adaptability and intraPC during their training. METHODS: Sixteen semi-structured interviews were conducted with residents and medical specialists from various disciplines who worked at a COVID department or Intensive Care Unit (ICU) during the COVID pandemic in the Netherlands, focusing on adaptability and intraPC learning. Transcripts were analyzed using (thematic) template analysis. RESULTS: Four themes that influenced learning during COVID care were identified: collective uncertainty, social cohesion and a sense of safety, the need for adaptive performance and intraPC learning. During the first wave, collective uncertainty about the unknown disease and the continuation of the crisis urged residents to adapt in order to take care of patients with a disease that was as yet unknown. The combination of collective uncertainty, social cohesion and a sense of safety, and the presence of different disciplines in one department promoted residents’ intraPC learning. However, intraPC learning was not always the matter of course due to the scope of the crisis and the huge numbers of new patients. CONCLUSION: Collective uncertainty affected the residents’ adaptability. The combination of collective uncertainty, social cohesion, and the presence of different disciplines in one department promoted the residents’ intraPC learning. An important facilitating factor for both adaptability and intraPC learning is a high level of social cohesion and safety. The physical and psychological proximity of supervisors is an important factor contributing to a safe learning environment. This study provides implications for practice for learning during postgraduate training in non-crisis settings. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12909-022-03868-9

Malaria surveillance from both ends: concurrent detection of Plasmodium falciparum in saliva and excreta harvested from Anopheles mosquitoes

Background: Malaria is the most important vector-borne disease in the world. Epidemiological and ecological studies of malaria traditionally utilize detection of Plasmodium sporozoites in whole mosquitoes or salivary glands by microscopy or serological or molecular assays. However, these methods are labor-intensive, and can over- or underestimate mosquito transmission potential. To overcome these limitations, alternative sample types have been evaluated for the study of malaria. It was recently shown that Plasmodium could be detected in saliva expectorated on honey-soaked cards by Anopheles stephensi, providing a better estimate of transmission risk. We evaluated whether excretion of Plasmodium falciparum nucleic acid by An. stephensi correlates with expectoration of parasites in saliva, thus providing an additional sample type for estimating transmission potential. Mosquitoes were exposed to infectious blood meals containing cultured gametocytes, and excreta collected at different time points post-exposure. Saliva was collected on honey-soaked filter paper cards, and salivary glands were dissected and examined microscopically for sporozoites. Excreta and saliva samples were tested by real time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR). Results: Plasmodium falciparum RNA was detected in mosquito excreta as early as four days after ingesting a bloodmeal containing gametocytes. Once sporogony (the development of sporozoites) occurred, P. falciparum RNA was detected concurrently in both excreta and saliva samples. In the majority of cases, no difference was observed between the Ct values obtained from matched excreta and saliva samples, suggesting that both samples provide equally sensitive results. A positive association was observed between the molecular detection of the parasites in both samples and the proportion of mosquitoes with sporozoites in their salivary glands from each container. No distinguishable parasites were observed when excreta samples were stained and microscopically analyzed. Conclusions: Mosquito saliva and excreta are easily collected and are promising for surveillance of malaria-causing parasites, especially in low transmission settings or in places where arboviruses co-circulate