Mobility and distance decay at the aggregated and individual level

Most crimes are committed near to where the offender lives; this has been observed both at the aggregate and at the offender level. At the aggregate level, as the distance increases there is a decline in the number of offences committed, and initially this decline is quite slow. This pattern has been described by a number of researchers, and results in a distance decay curve. Near-home offending has also been observed at the level of the individual offender, although it has been debated whether distance decay actually exists at the level of the individual offender. We therefore believe it is important to distinguish near-home offending from decay, i.e. the gradual decline in offences as distances increase. This paper studies mobility patterns and decay curves on serious property crimes in Belgium. First, aggregated patterns are discussed and categorised. Second, individual offenders are analysed. It becomes clear through studying offender patterns that offender mobility and decay are not intertwined at the individual level to the same extent as they are at the aggregate level. This suggests that it is important, particularly when studying individual offenders, to clarify whether (average) distances or decay are being considered

Journey to crime of 'itinerant crime groups'

Purpose - Most researchers have found that property crimes have a local focus: offenders tend to operate in the vicinity of their residence. This has led the police to organise themselves to concentrate their resources in highly populated, urban areas, Over the last decade mobile property offenders have been found in various Western European countries that differ from this norm. These groups of mainly Eastern European multiple offenders engaging in property crime tend to travel further than other offenders. As such, their operations differ from most criminals, challenging the way the police are organised and undermining criminological theories on journey to crime. The aim of this paper is to look at the specificity of mobility patterns of these groups, to examine the precise interpretation of their mobility and to consider the implications. Design/methodology/approach - The paper uses the Belgian police database containing all serious property crimes in Belgium for the period 2002-2006. Some basic offender characteristics have been identified and for these offenders journey-to-crime patterns have been established. Findings - Eastern European multiple offending groups tend to commit their crimes in rural areas. Although they start their journey in regions considered "crime importing", they carry out their crimes in "crime exporting" areas. As such, they are atypical, challenging traditional theories on journey-to-crime and the way in which police forces are organised. Research limitations/implications - Observing a special group is one thing, but explaining these differences is another. Further research is needed, in particular with regard to the motivational aspects for these offenders. Originality/value - Whereas most researchers have found crime (including property crime) to be mainly local, the present research focuses on more mobile offenders. The challenges that these groups create for law enforcement authorities make it important for them and their patterns of activity to be understood

Do sports stadiums generate crime on days without matches? A natural experiment on the delayed exploitation of criminal opportunities

Crime pattern theory claims that busy places generate crime through immediate and delayed exploitation. In delayed exploitation, offenders notice criminal opportunities during opening hours but return to exploit them later. This study investigates delayed exploitation by testing whether soccer stadiums locally increase police recorded property crime on non-game days. A soccer stadium closure created a natural experiment. We estimate linear regression difference-in-difference models to compare crime rates on non-game days around the stadium, before and after the closure. The closure reduced non-game day property crime beyond the citywide property crime drop. We conclude that criminogenic effects of busy places extend beyond their opening hours, confirming the delayed exploitation mechanism, and that crime prevention strategies should also target these places outside opening hours