Testing black hole no-hair theorem with OJ287

We examine the ability to test the black hole no-hair theorem at the 10% level in this decade using the binary black hole in OJ287. In the test we constrain the value of the dimensionless parameter q that relates the scaled quadrupole moment and spin of the primary black hole: q2 = -q 2 . At the present we can say that q = 1 \pm 0.3 (one), in agreement with General Relativity and the no-hair theorems. We demonstrate that this result can be improved if more observational data is found in historical plate archives for the 1959 and 1971 outbursts. We also show that the predicted 2015 and 2019 outbursts will be crucial in improving the accuracy of the test. Space-based photometry is required in 2019 July due the proximity of OJ287 to the Sun at the time of the outburst. The best situation would be to carry out the photometry far from the Earth, from quite a different vantage point, in order to avoid the influence of the nearby Sun. We have considered in particular the STEREO space mission which would be ideal if it has a continuation in 2019 or LORRI on board the New Horizons mission to Pluto.Comment: 14 pages, 14 figure

Measuring the spin of the primary black hole in OJ287

The compact binary system in OJ287 is modelled to contain a spinning primary black hole with an accretion disk and a non-spinning secondary black hole. Using Post Newtonian (PN) accurate equations that include 2.5PN accurate non-spinning contributions, the leading order general relativistic and classical spin-orbit terms, the orbit of the binary black hole in OJ287 is calculated and as expected it depends on the spin of the primary black hole. Using the orbital solution, the specific times when the orbit of the secondary crosses the accretion disk of the primary are evaluated such that the record of observed outbursts from 1913 up to 2007 is reproduced. The timings of the outbursts are quite sensitive to the spin value. In order to reproduce all the known outbursts, including a newly discovered one in 1957, the Kerr parameter of the primary has to be $0.28 \pm 0.08$. The quadrupole-moment contributions to the equations of motion allow us to constrain the `no-hair' parameter to be $1.0\:\pm\:0.3$ where 0.3 is the one sigma error. This supports the `black hole no-hair theorem' within the achievable precision. It should be possible to test the present estimate in 2015 when the next outburst is due. The timing of the 2015 outburst is a strong function of the spin: if the spin is 0.36 of the maximal value allowed in general relativity, the outburst begins in early November 2015, while the same event starts in the end of January 2016 if the spin is 0.2Comment: 12 pages, 6 figure

Measuring Black Hole Spin in OJ287

We model the binary black hole system OJ287 as a spinning primary and a non-spinning secondary. It is assumed that the primary has an accretion disk which is impacted by the secondary at specific times. These times are identified as major outbursts in the light curve of OJ287. This identification allows an exact solution of the orbit, with very tight error limits. Nine outbursts from both the historical photographic records as well as from recent photometric measurements have been used as fixed points of the solution: 1913, 1947, 1957, 1973, 1983, 1984, 1995, 2005 and 2007 outbursts. This allows the determination of eight parameters of the orbit. Most interesting of these are the primary mass of $1.84\cdot 10^{10} M_\odot$, the secondary mass $1.46\cdot 10^{8} M_\odot$, major axis precession rate $39^\circ.1$ per period, and the eccentricity of the orbit 0.70. The dimensionless spin parameter is $0.28\:\pm\:0.01$ (1 sigma). The last parameter will be more tightly constrained in 2015 when the next outburst is due. The outburst should begin on 15 December 2015 if the spin value is in the middle of this range, on 3 January 2016 if the spin is 0.25, and on 26 November 2015 if the spin is 0.31. We have also tested the possibility that the quadrupole term in the Post Newtonian equations of motion does not exactly follow Einstein's theory: a parameter $q$ is introduced as one of the 8 parameters. Its value is within 30% (1 sigma) of the Einstein's value $q = 1$. This supports the $no-hair theorem$ of black holes within the achievable precision. We have also measured the loss of orbital energy due to gravitational waves. The loss rate is found to agree with Einstein's value with the accuracy of 2% (1 sigma).Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures, IAU26

Observations of cosmic-ray modulations in the fall, 1984

Modulation of cosmic-ray energy spectrum was studied by using the Turku double neutron monitor. The multiplicity region of detected neutrons produced by cosmic ray hadrons in the monitor was divided into seven categories corresponding to mean energies 0.1, 0.3, 1.0, 3.2, 8.6, 21, and 94 GeV of hadrons at sea level. Based on 24-hour frequencies, a statistical analysis showed that modulation of the intensity in all categories occurred during several periods in the fall 1984. The magnitude of the variation was a few per cent

A facility for investigation of multiple hadrons at cosmic-ray energies

An experimental arrangement for studying multiple hadrons produced in high-energy hadron-nucleus interactions is under construction at the university of Turku. The method of investigation is based on the detection of hadrons arriving simultaneously at sea level over an area of a few square meters. The apparatus consists of a hadron spectrometer with position-sensitive detectors in connection with a small air shower array. The position resolution using streamer tube detectors will be about 10 mm. Energy spectra of hadrons or groups of simultaneous hadrons produced at primary energies below 10 to the 16th power eV can be measured in the energy range 1 to 2000 GeV

Spectral analysis of the Forbush decrease of 13 July 1982

The maximum entropy method has been applied in the spectral analysis of high-energy cosmic-ray intensity during the large Forbush event of July 13, 1982. An oscillation with period of about 2 hours and amplitude of 1 to 3% was found to be present during the decrease phase. This oscillation can be related to a similar periodicity in the magnetospheric field. However, the variation was not observed at all neutron monitor stations. In the beginning of the recovery phase, the intensity oscillated with a period of about 10 hours and amplitude of 3%