Testing black hole no-hair theorem with OJ287

We examine the ability to test the black hole no-hair theorem at the 10% level in this decade using the binary black hole in OJ287. In the test we constrain the value of the dimensionless parameter q that relates the scaled quadrupole moment and spin of the primary black hole: q2 = -q 2 . At the present we can say that q = 1 \pm 0.3 (one), in agreement with General Relativity and the no-hair theorems. We demonstrate that this result can be improved if more observational data is found in historical plate archives for the 1959 and 1971 outbursts. We also show that the predicted 2015 and 2019 outbursts will be crucial in improving the accuracy of the test. Space-based photometry is required in 2019 July due the proximity of OJ287 to the Sun at the time of the outburst. The best situation would be to carry out the photometry far from the Earth, from quite a different vantage point, in order to avoid the influence of the nearby Sun. We have considered in particular the STEREO space mission which would be ideal if it has a continuation in 2019 or LORRI on board the New Horizons mission to Pluto.Comment: 14 pages, 14 figure

Measuring the spin of the primary black hole in OJ287

The compact binary system in OJ287 is modelled to contain a spinning primary black hole with an accretion disk and a non-spinning secondary black hole. Using Post Newtonian (PN) accurate equations that include 2.5PN accurate non-spinning contributions, the leading order general relativistic and classical spin-orbit terms, the orbit of the binary black hole in OJ287 is calculated and as expected it depends on the spin of the primary black hole. Using the orbital solution, the specific times when the orbit of the secondary crosses the accretion disk of the primary are evaluated such that the record of observed outbursts from 1913 up to 2007 is reproduced. The timings of the outbursts are quite sensitive to the spin value. In order to reproduce all the known outbursts, including a newly discovered one in 1957, the Kerr parameter of the primary has to be $0.28 \pm 0.08$. The quadrupole-moment contributions to the equations of motion allow us to constrain the `no-hair' parameter to be $1.0\:\pm\:0.3$ where 0.3 is the one sigma error. This supports the `black hole no-hair theorem' within the achievable precision. It should be possible to test the present estimate in 2015 when the next outburst is due. The timing of the 2015 outburst is a strong function of the spin: if the spin is 0.36 of the maximal value allowed in general relativity, the outburst begins in early November 2015, while the same event starts in the end of January 2016 if the spin is 0.2Comment: 12 pages, 6 figure

2005–2010 Multiwavelength Campaing of OJ287

The light curve of quasar OJ287 extends from 1891 up today without major gaps. This is partly due to extensive studies of historical plate archives by Rene Hudec and associates, and partly due to several observing campaigns in recent times. Here we summarize the results of the 2005–2010 observing campaign, in which several hundred scientists and amateur astronomers took part. The main results are the following: (1) The 2005 October optical outburst came at the expected time, thus confirming the General Relativistic precession in the binary black hole system, as was originally proposed bySillanp¨a¨a et al. (1988). At the same time, this result disproved the model of a single black hole system with accretion disk oscillations, as well as several toy models of binaries without relativistic precession. In the latter models the main outburst would have been a year later. No particular activity was seen in OJ287 in 2006 October. (2) The nature of the radiation of the 2005 October outburst was expected to be bremsstrahlung from hot gas at a temperature of 3 × 105 K. The reason for the outburst is a collision of the secondary on the accretion disk of the primary, which heats the gas to this temperature. This was confirmed by combined ground based and ultraviolet observations using the XMM-Newton X-ray telescope. (3) A secondary outburst of the same nature was expected at 2007 September 13. Within the accuracy of the observations (about 6 hours), it started at the correct time. Thus the prediction was accurate at the same level as the prediction of the return of Halley’s comet in 1986. Due to the bremsstrahlung nature of the outburst, the radiation was unpolarised, as expected. (4) Further synchrotron outbursts were expected following the two bremsstrahlung outbursts.They came as scheduled between 2007 October and 2009 December. (5) Due to the effect of the secondary on the overall direction of the jet, the parsec scale jet was expected to rotate in the sky by a large angle around 2009. This rotation has been seen in high frequency radio observations. The OJ287 binary black hole system is currently our best laboratory for testing theories of gravitation. Using OJ287, the correctness of General Relativity has now been demonstrated up to second Post-Newtonian order, higher than has been possible using binary pulsars

Measuring Black Hole Spin in OJ287

We model the binary black hole system OJ287 as a spinning primary and a non-spinning secondary. It is assumed that the primary has an accretion disk which is impacted by the secondary at specific times. These times are identified as major outbursts in the light curve of OJ287. This identification allows an exact solution of the orbit, with very tight error limits. Nine outbursts from both the historical photographic records as well as from recent photometric measurements have been used as fixed points of the solution: 1913, 1947, 1957, 1973, 1983, 1984, 1995, 2005 and 2007 outbursts. This allows the determination of eight parameters of the orbit. Most interesting of these are the primary mass of $1.84\cdot 10^{10} M_\odot$, the secondary mass $1.46\cdot 10^{8} M_\odot$, major axis precession rate $39^\circ.1$ per period, and the eccentricity of the orbit 0.70. The dimensionless spin parameter is $0.28\:\pm\:0.01$ (1 sigma). The last parameter will be more tightly constrained in 2015 when the next outburst is due. The outburst should begin on 15 December 2015 if the spin value is in the middle of this range, on 3 January 2016 if the spin is 0.25, and on 26 November 2015 if the spin is 0.31. We have also tested the possibility that the quadrupole term in the Post Newtonian equations of motion does not exactly follow Einstein's theory: a parameter $q$ is introduced as one of the 8 parameters. Its value is within 30% (1 sigma) of the Einstein's value $q = 1$. This supports the $no-hair theorem$ of black holes within the achievable precision. We have also measured the loss of orbital energy due to gravitational waves. The loss rate is found to agree with Einstein's value with the accuracy of 2% (1 sigma).Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures, IAU26

Effect of different mowing regimes on butterflies and diurnal moths on road verges

In northern and central Europe road verges offer alternative habitats for declining plant and invertebrate species of semi-natural grasslands. The quality of road verges as habitats depends on several factors, of which the mowing regime is one of the easiest to modify. In this study we compared the Lepidoptera communities on road verges that underwent three different mowing regimes regarding the timing and intensity of mowing; mowing in mid-summer, mowing in late summer, and partial mowing (a narrow strip next to the road). A total of 12,174 individuals and 107 species of Lepidoptera were recorded. The mid-summer mown verges had lower species richness and abundance of butterflies and lower species richness and diversity of diurnal moths compared to the late summer and partially mown verges. By delaying the annual mowing until late summer or promoting mosaic-like mowing regimes, such as partial mowing, the quality of road verges as habitats for butterflies and diurnal moths can be improved

A graph of dark energy significance on different spatial and mass scales

The current cosmological paradigm sees the formation and evolution of the cosmic large-scale structure as governed by the gravitational attraction of the Dark Matter (DM) and the repulsion of the Dark Energy (DE). We characterize the relative importance of uniform and constant dark energy, as given by the Lambda term in the standard LCDM cosmology, in galaxy systems of different scales, from groups to superclusters. An instructive "Lambda significance graph" is introduced where the matter-DE density ratio /rho_Lambda for different galaxy systems is plotted against the radius R. This presents gravitation and DE dominated regions and shows directly the zero velocity radius, the zero-gravity radius, and the Einstein-Straus radius for any fixed value of mass. Example galaxy groups and clusters from the local universe illustrate the use of the Lambda significance graph. These are generally located deep in the gravity-dominated region /rho_Lambda > 2, being virialized. Extended clusters and main bodies of superclusters can reach down near the border line between gravity-dominated and DE dominated regions /rho_Lambda = 2. The scale--mass relation from the standard 2-point correlation function intersects this balance line near the correlation lenght. The log /rho_Lambda vs. log R diagram is a useful and versatile way to characterize the dynamical state of systems of galaxies within the Lambda dominated expanding universe.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figure

Eye fluke-induced cataracts in natural fish populations: is there potential for host manipulation?

Manipulation of host phenotype (e.g. behaviour, appearance) is suggested to be a common strategy to enhance transmission in trophically transmitted parasites. However, in many systems, evidence of manipulation comes exclusively from laboratory studies and its occurrence in natural host populations is poorly understood. Here, we examined the potential for host manipulation by Diplostomum eye flukes indirectly by quantifying the physiological effects of parasites on fish. Earlier laboratory studies have shown that Diplostomum infection predisposes fish to predation by birds (definitive hosts of the parasites) by reducing fish vision through cataract formation. However, occurrence of cataracts and the subsequent potential for host manipulation in natural fish populations has remained poorly explored. We studied the occurrence of eye fluke-induced cataracts from 7 common fish species (Gymnocephalus cernuus, Rutilus rutilus, Leuciscus leuciscus, Alburnus alburnus, Osmerus eperlanus, Coregonus lavaretus and Gasterosteus aculeatus) from the Bothnian Bay in the Baltic Sea. We found that the parasite-induced cataracts were common in fish and they also reached high levels which are likely to predispose fish to predation. However, we observed such cataracts only in species with the highest parasite abundances, which suggests that only certain hosts may be strongly affected by the infectio