Investment needs for irrigation infrastructure along different socio-economic pathways

This paper conducts an assessment of the global costs for expanding, upgrading, and improving irrigation infra-structure in developing countries, along different future scenarios toward 2050. It uses the GLobal BIOsphere Man-agement Model, a partial equilibrium model of the global agricultural and forestry sectors. It examines the impacts of irrigation expansion on the agriculture and food system, from the perspective of different Sustainable Development Goals, in particular food security (goal 2), land use change and biodiversity (goal 15), greenhouse gas emissions (goal 13), and sustainable water use (goal 6). It finds that irriga-tion support policies improve food security globally and can reduce the burden on land by limiting expansion of cropland area. However, the effectiveness of irrigation to achieve a larger set of goals depends on the regional con-text. In South Asia and the Middle East and North Africa, the expansion of irrigation increases unsustainable water extraction practices. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to evaluate the uncertainty of the infrastructure costs and impacts under different socioeconomic developments, levels of radiative forcing and climate change scenarios, dietary patterns, trade openness, and efficiencies of irriga-tion systems. The findings indicate that irrigation systems could play an important role in adaptation to the most adverse climate change; however, increased water scarcity may also limit adaptation potentials

Aplicação da interferometria holografia subaquática para análise de estruturas

Pretende-se com este trabalho estudar a aplicação das técnicas de interferometria holográfica à análise estrutural em ambiente subaquático. Estas técnicas estão hoje bem divulgadas e com aplicações em diversas áreas. No entanto, a sua aplicação em ambientes subaquáticos, apresenta alguns desafios. Neste trabalho estuda-se a aplicação de duas técnicas, ESPI e holografia digital, comparando-as e apresentando vantagens e desvantagens de cada uma delas. Faz-se um breve estudo sobre a influência das instabilidades resultantes da turbulência das águas e da presença de partículas em suspensão bem como possíveis soluções para minimizar estes problemas

The market impacts of shortening feed supply chains in Europe

Recently, consumers’ awareness regarding food production has increased, leading to a growing focus on shorter food supply chains and regional or local food systems. In the livestock sector, these developments are closely related to a regionalization of feed production. At the same time, a low self-sufficiency rate in protein feed is being reported for many European countries. In this paper, we analyze market impacts resulting from a complete switch to regionally produced feed in the European livestock sector. We simulate a shortening of feed supply chains in European livestock production using a large-scale agricultural sector model. Livestock production was restricted to feed that can be produced within the same EU member state. Our work represents a first step towards a simulation of regional or local food systems. The results reveal large increases in the prices of livestock products in Europe due to the shortening of feed supply chains. This is a result of a significant increase in livestock production costs. The ability to supply livestock products with regionally produced feed in the EU would be improved through a reduced consumption of livestock products

Policy strategies and challenges for climate change mitigation in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector. OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers No. 149

This study uses GLOBIOM ‒ the most detailed global economic model of agriculture, land use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ‒ to assess the effectiveness of different policies in cutting net emissions from the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector, with a view to helping limit long-term global temperature increases to 1.5°C and 2°C. Trade-offs between emission reductions and impacts on food producers, consumers and government budgets are also evaluated for each policy package. A full complement of policy options is deployed globally across AFOLU, comprising emission taxes for emitting AFOLU activities and subsidies rewarding carbon sequestration. Using a carbon price consistent with the 2°C target (1.5°C target), this is projected to mitigate 8 GtCO2 eq/yr (12 GtCO2 eq/yr) in 2050, representing 89% (129%) reduction in net AFOLU emissions, and 12% (21%) of total anthropogenic GHG emissions. Nearly two-thirds of the net emission reductions are from the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) component of AFOLU, mostly from reduced deforestation. A global carbon tax on AFOLU is found to be twice as effective in lowering emissions as an equivalently priced emission abatement subsidy because the latter keeps high emitting producers in business. However, a tax has trade-offs in terms of lower agricultural production and food consumption, which a subsidy avoids. A shift to lower emission diets by consumers has a much smaller impact on reducing agricultural emissions than any of the policy packages involving taxes on emissions

Integrated Management of Land-use Systems under Systemic Risks and Food-(bio)energy-water-environmental Security Targets: A Stochastic Global Biosphere Management Model

Interdependencies among land-use systems resemble a complex network connected through demand–supply relations, and disruption of the network may catalyze systemic risks affecting food, energy, water, and environmental security (FEWES) worldwide. This paper describes the conceptual development, expansion, and practical application of a stochastic version of the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), a model that is used to assess competition for land use between agriculture, bioenergy, and forestry at regional and global scales. In the stochastic version of the model, systemic risks of various kinds are explicitly covered and can be analyzed and mitigated in all their interactions. While traditional deterministic scenario analysis produces sets of often contradictory outcomes, stochastic GLOBIOM explicitly derives robust decisions that leave the systems better off, independently of what scenario occurs. Stochastic GLOBIOM is formulated as a stochastic optimization model that is central for evaluating portfolios of robust interdependent decisions: ex ante strategic decisions (production allocation, storage capacities) and ex post adaptive (demand, trading, storage control) decisions. For example, the model is applied to the case of increased storage facilities, which can be viewed as catastrophe pools to buffer production shortfalls and fulfill regional and global FEWES requirements when extreme events occur. Expected shortfalls and storage capacities have a close relation with Value-at-Risk and Conditional Value-at-Risk risk measures. The Value of Stochastic Solutions is calculated to present the benefits of the stochastic over the deterministic model

Stakeholder-designed scenarios for global food security assessments

To guide policymaking, decision makers require a good understanding of the long-term drivers of food security and their interactions. Scenario analysis is widely considered as the appropriate tool to assess ‘wicked problems’, such as ensuring global food security, that are characterized by a high level of complexity and uncertainty. This paper describes the development process, storylines and drivers of four new global scenarios that are specifically designed to explore global food security up to the year 2050. To ensure the relevance, credibility and legitimacy of the scenarios, they have been developed using a participatory process, involving a diverse group of stakeholders. The scenarios consist of storylines and a scenario database that presents projections for key drivers, which can be used as an input into global simulation models