Havlik, P.

Mosnier, A.

Obersteiner, M.

Valin, H.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Impact of Climate Change Mitigation  Policies on Food Consumption Patterns   Population: from 6.1 in 2000 to 8.4 billion in 2030   +50% of average increase in agricultural production towards 2030 with strong shift in consumption patterns (Alexandratos, 2006)  +27% meat per capita, +17% milk and dairy per capita  Expected land use expansion effect  +6 to 30% expansion up to 2050 (depends on demand and technology) (Smith et al., 2010)  Hugo Valin, Petr Havlik , Aline Mosnier, Michael Obersteiner Ecosystems Services and Management Program, IIASA More food to feed future population The supply side of GLOBIOM… Bottom-up grid-based land use optimization model GHG emissions from agriculture and LUC …with a flexible food demand system Mitigation in agriculture: Opportunity or false solution ?  For 20 USD / t:  -30% in agricultural activities (Smith et al., 2008)  -50% in forest anthropogenic emissions (Kindermann et al., 2008) How can mitigation objectives  conflict with food security considerations? -400-20002004006008001000Europe NorthAmericaSouthAmericaSouth Asia Africa -Middle EastChina -South-EastAsiaOthersBiofuels savings Deforestation Enteric fermentationMtCO2-eq 500 MtCO2-eq -20-15-10-50510Milk anddairyBovinemeatPig meat Eggs PoultrymeatOvinemeatVegetalcaloriesMeatcaloriesTotalcaloriesMTG_FOR MTG_BIOF MTG_CTL-100-80-60-40-20020406080Cropland Grassland Forest Natural land Short RotationPlantationsMTG_FOR MTG_BIOF MTG_CTL0%5%10%15%20%25%MTG_FOR MTG_BIOF MTG_CTLCrop products Livestock productsGHG Mitigation Land use change Prices Consumption COMPARING EFFECTS OF THREE MITIGATION POLICIES (1) Reduction of deforestation, (2) Bioenergy deployment, (3) Less methane emissions from livestock Iteration on price and quantities to reach equilibrium with specific treatment of unstable points  Nested LES-CES functions (Brown and Heien, 1972)  Substitution effect (own and cross price elasticities)  Non linear Engel curves (income elasticities) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000BASEMTG_CTLBASEMTG_CTLBASEMTG_CTLBASEMTG_CTLBASEMTG_CTLBASEMTG_CTLSub-saharan AfricaSub-saharan AfricaIndiaIndiaBrazilBrazilChinaChinaWesternEUWesternEUNort hAmericaNort hAmericaBovine meat Ovine meat Pig meat Poultry meat Eggs Milk and dairyWHY DIETS ACROSS REGIONS MATTER? Consumption per capita in the livestock mitigation scenario Kcal/cap/day CONCLUSIONS  Linkage between systems allows to better understand the impact of supply oriented policies on demand with the benefit or a refined bottom-up description  The impact of mitigation policies reflect the hierarchy of mitigation costs: preventing deforestation appears potentially better if not considering co-benefits of cattle intensification  Impacts are very differently distributed depending on the policies: the most crop oriented could put at risk the poorest sensible to crop prices whereas meat based would impact more specific regions  REFERENCE Valin, H., Havlík, Petr, Mosnier, A., Obersteiner, O. (2012) “Impacts of Alternative Climate Change Mitigation Policies on Food Consumption under various Diet Scenarios”, Paper presented at the 14th GTAP Conference, 2012, Geneva.  ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: This work received the support from the following FP7 projects:  PASHMINA (grant no. 244766)  FOODSECURE (grant no. 290693) Contact: valin@iiasa.ac.at      More on the model: www.globiom.org  INTEGRATED CONTEXT conflicts with Source: IPCC, 2007 Mha Kcal/cap/day 

Impact of Climate Change Mitigation Policies on Food Consumption Patterns

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