Financial distress prediction of Tehran Stock Exchange companies using support vector machine

The main objective of this study is to evaluate and to compare the power to predict company financial distress by utilizing the Support Vector Machine (SVM) to the multiple-discriminant analysis and the logistic regression models. Companies approved for acceptance into Tehran Stock Exchange Market between 2007 and 2013 comprise the statistical population for the study. In order to predict financial distress based on financial ratios such as profitability, activity ratio, ratios per share, etc. by using the Support Vector Machine (SVM), the sample data has been divided into two separate groups: the training group and the experimental group. The training set is made up of 540 year-company and the experimental set is comprised of 120 companies in 2013.  Finally, conclusions obtained from SVM, multiple-discriminant analysis and the logistic regression models for predicting financial failure were surveyed and compared. Results of testing hypothesis indicate with a 95% certainty ratio that there is a significant difference in the average prediction accuracy of the three models. Consequently among the three, the SVM model has the highest accuracy level for predicting company financial failure and the multiple-discriminant analysis model has the lowest

Financial distress prediction of Tehran Stock Exchange companies using support vector machine

The main objective of this study is to evaluate and to compare the power to predict company financial distress by utilizing the Support Vector Machine (SVM) to the multiple-discriminant analysis and the logistic regression models. Companies approved for acceptance into Tehran Stock Exchange Market between 2007 and 2013 comprise the statistical population for the study. In order to predict financial distress based on financial ratios such as profitability, activity ratio, ratios per share, etc. by using the Support Vector Machine (SVM), the sample data has been divided into two separate groups: the training group and the experimental group. The training set is made up of 540 year-company and the experimental set is comprised of 120 companies in 2013.  Finally, conclusions obtained from SVM, multiple-discriminant analysis and the logistic regression models for predicting financial failure were surveyed and compared. Results of testing hypothesis indicate with a 95% certainty ratio that there is a significant difference in the average prediction accuracy of the three models. Consequently among the three, the SVM model has the highest accuracy level for predicting company financial failure and the multiple-discriminant analysis model has the lowest

Teenage girls’ experience of the determinants of physical activity promotion: A theory-based qualitative content analysis

Background: The progress of technology in developed countries has changed lifestyles to sedentary and has increased non-communicable diseases. Identifying factors affecting patterns of physical activity among adolescents is valuable and it is important to change these pattern. Objective: This study aimed to explore teenage girls’ experiences regarding the determinants of physical activity promotion based on Pender's Health Promotion Model. Methods: This qualitative study is a content analysis research on the girls of three high schools in Minoodasht city for six months from September 2015 until the end of February 2016. The data were obtained by focused group discussions and semi-structured in-depth interviews from 48 girls ranging from 15 to 18 years old and six teachers. Data analysis was done using theory-driven qualitative content analysis. Results: Data analysis resulted in a total number of 53 primary codes which were classified in the six predetermined classifications of Pender's Health Promotion Model (Perceived benefits, perceived barriers, perceived self-efficacy of physical activity behavior, feelings related to physical activity behavior, interpersonal and situational influencers). The results showed that two classifications (perceived barriers, and situational influencers) were considered more important than other classifications in reducing levels of physical activity in adolescent girls and also high self-efficacy for promoting physical activity in adolescents. Conclusion: The results obtained from this study specified the determinants affecting the promotion of physical activity among adolescent girls and can help the planners to choose the most appropriate methods and strategies in order to promote physical activity among adolescent girls and to prevent chronic non-communicable diseases in this age group and gender

The Prevalence of Occult Hepatitis B Virus in the Hemodialysis Patients in Yazd, Iran

Occult HBV infection of hemodialysis (HD) patients is informative in terms of virus transmission. It may be of clinical importance in HD patients. The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of anti-HBc in the HD Patients. Number of 126 patients undergoing hemodialysis were included in this study from main hemodialysis units in Yazd. Hepatitis B surface antigens (HBsAg), hepatitis B core antibody (anti-HBc) were examined in all subjects. Finally, stored serum samples from anti-HBcAb positive, HBsAg negative patients were anonymised and tested for HBV DNA by real time quantitative PCR assay. The age range of the patients was 17-88 years. Of the 126 patients, 123 patients (97.6%) were HBC-Ab negative and 3 (2.4%) were positive. Of 3 patients with Anti-HBC positive, HBV DNA was detected in 1 patient. This study showed a low rate of isolated anti-HBc (2.4%). HBV DNA was also detected in 1 patient

Efficacy of olanzapine in symptom relief and quality of life in gastric cancer patients receiving chemotherapy

Background: Considering the incidence and prevalence rates of gastric cancer in Mazandaran Province of Iran, this research was performed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of olanzapine in symptom relief and quality of life (QOL) improvement of gastric patients receiving chemotherapy. Materials and Methods: This clinical trial was conducted on thirty new cases of gastric cancer patients whose treatment protocol was planned on chemotherapy and were allocated into two groups by simple random sampling. Intervention group (15 patients) received olanzapine tablets (2.5–10 mg/day) a day before the beginning of chemotherapy; in the 1st day of chemotherapy to 8 weeks after chemotherapy, besides the routine treatment regimens. The control group received only the routine treatment regimens. The patients were followed for 8 weeks after intervention. All of the patients were assessed with Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and WHO-QOL-BREF questionnaires; further, Rhodes index was used to evaluate nausea and vomiting (N/V) status. Results: All the recruited patients continued the allocated interventions (no lost to follow-up). N/V decreased in the case group, but the difference was not statistically significant (P = 0.438). The patients' appetite and body mass index increased (P = 0.006). Anxiety and depression subscales of HADS had significant differences between the two groups (P 0.05). No significant increase was observed in fasting and 2-h postprandial blood glucose and lipid profile (P > 0.05). Conclusion: Olanzapine can be considered as an effective drug to increase appetite and decrease anxiety and depression in patients with gastric cancer

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundFuture trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.MethodsUsing forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.FindingsIn the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]).InterpretationGlobally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.</p