A review of computable general equilibrium models for transport and their applications in appraisal

© 2018 Elsevier Ltd In the transport planning process, decision makers require reliable and informative appraisals to facilitate comparisons and determine if a proposal is worthwhile to society. The cost–benefit analysis is the most common form of appraisal, where benefits are primarily measured from the change in consumer surplus in the transport market. However, these benefits will only reflect maximum social welfare if markets operate perfectly competitively and without any market failures. There may be significant uncaptured impacts, known as wider economic impacts, which agencies are beginning to incorporate in appraisals using ad-hoc methods. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are an increasingly popular method for assessing the economic impact of transport, including both direct and wider economic impacts, as they can determine the distribution of impacts among every market and agent in the economy by simulating the behaviour of households, firms and others from microeconomic first principles. Aside from their traditional role estimating changes in macroeconomic variables, CGE models can provide a measure of welfare that guarantees no double counting and accounts for nth order effects. This paper reviews the full range of CGE models that have been applied to transport issues and discusses their role in transport appraisal. CGE models for transport have been developed in urban, regional and environmental economics as well as other fields, and each field has applied its own theory, assumptions and practices to represent the relationships between transport and the economy relevant to the field. This paper also discusses the general role of CGE modelling in transport appraisal, as well as theoretical and practical concerns regarding CGE modelling practice

An experimental study of the Online Information Paradox: Does en-route information improve road network performance?

This study investigates the empirical presence of a theoretical transportation paradox, defined as the "Online Information Paradox" (OIP). The paradox suggests that, for certain road networks, the provision of online information deteriorate travel conditions for all users of that network relative to the situation where no online information is provided to users. The analytical presence of the paradox was derived for a specific network structure by using two equilibrium models, the first being the Expected User Equilibrium (EUE) solution (no information scenario) and the other being the User Equilibrium with Recourse (UER) solution (with information scenario). An incentivised computerised route choice game was designed using the concepts of experimental economics and administered in a controlled laboratory environment to investigate the physical presence of the paradox. Aggregate statistics of path flows and Total System Travel Costs (TSTC) were used to compare the experimental results with the theoretical findings. A total of 12 groups of 12 participants completed the experiment and the OIP and the occurrence of the OIP being significant was observed in 11 of the 12 cases. Though information increased travel costs for users on average, it reduced the volatility of travel costs experienced in the no information scenario indicating that information can achieve a more reliable system. Further replications of similar experiments and more importantly field based identification of the phenomena will force transport professionals to be aware of the emergence of the paradox. In addition, studies such as this emphasise the need for the adoption of adaptive traffic assignment techniques to appropriately model the acquisition of information on a road network

Pedestrian recognition and obstacle avoidance for autonomous vehicles using raspberry Pi

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020. The aim of this paper is twofold: firstly, to use ultrasonic sensors to detect obstacles and secondly to present a comparison of machine learning and deep learning algorithms for pedestrian recognition in an autonomous vehicle. A mobility scooter was modified to be fully autonomous using Raspberry Pi 3 as a controller. Pedestrians were initially simulated by card board boxes and further replaced by a pedestrian. A mobility scooter was disassembled and connected to Raspberry Pi 3 with ultrasonic sensors and a camera. Two computer vision algorithms of histogram of oriented gradients (HOG) descriptors and Haar-classifiers were trained and tested for pedestrian recognition and compared to deep learning using the single shot detection method. The ultrasonic sensors were tested for time delay for obstacle avoidance and were found to be reliable at ranges between 100 cm and 500 cm at small angles from the acoustic axis, and at delay periods over two seconds. HOG descriptor was found to be a superior algorithm for detecting pedestrians compared to Haar-classifier with an accuracy of around 83%, whereas, deep learning outperformed both with an accuracy of around 88%. The work presented here will enable further tests on the autonomous vehicle to collect meaningful data for management of vehicular cloud

Age-Related Attenuation of Dominant Hand Superiority

The decline of motor performance of the human hand-arm system with age is well-documented. While dominant hand performance is superior to that of the non-dominant hand in young individuals, little is known of possible age-related changes in hand dominance. We investigated age-related alterations of hand dominance in 20 to 90 year old subjects. All subjects were unambiguously right-handed according to the Edinburgh Handedness Inventory. In Experiment 1, motor performance for aiming, postural tremor, precision of arm-hand movement, speed of arm-hand movement, and wrist-finger speed tasks were tested. In Experiment 2, accelerometer-sensors were used to obtain objective records of hand use in everyday activities

Effects of the Template Composition and Coating on the Photoluminescence Properties of ZnS:Mn Nanoparticles

Mn-doped ZnS nanocrystals based on low dopant concentrations (0–2%) and coated with a shell of Zn(OH)2 have been prepared via soft template and precipitation reaction. The results indicate that the ZnS:Mn nanocrystal is cubic zinc blende structure and its diameter is 3.02 nm as demonstrated by XRD. Measured by TEM, the morphology of nanocrystals is a spherical shape, and their particle size (3–5 nm) is similar to that of XRD results. Photoluminescence spectra under ultraviolet region shows that the volume ratio of alcohol to water in the template has a great effect on the luminescence properties of ZnS:Mn particles. Compared with unpassivated ZnS:Mn nanocrystals, ZnS:Mn/Zn(OH)2 core/shell nanocrystal exhibits much improved luminescence and higher absolute quantum efficiency. Meanwhile, we simply explore the formation mechanism of ZnS:Mn nanocrystals in alcohol and water system and analyze the reason why alcohol and water cluster structures can affect the luminescent properties of nanoparticle

Implications of CTL-Mediated Killing of HIV-Infected Cells during the Non-Productive Stage of Infection

Patients infected with HIV exhibit orders of magnitude differences in their set-point levels of the plasma viral load. As to what extent this variation is due to differences in the efficacy of the cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) response in these patients is unclear. Several studies have shown that HIV-infected CD4+ T cells also present viral epitopes that are recognized by CTLs before the productive stage of infection, i.e., during the intracellular eclipse phase before the infected cell starts to produce new viral particles. Here, we use mathematical modeling to investigate the potential impact of early killing of HIV-infected cells on viral replication. We suggest that the majority of CTL-mediated killing could occur during the viral eclipse phase, and that the killing of virus-producing cells could be substantially lower at later stages due to MHC-I-down-regulation. Such a mechanism is in agreement with several experimental observations that include CD8+ T cell depletion and antiretroviral drug treatment. This indicates a potentially important role of CTL-mediated killing during the non-productive stage of HIV-infected cells

Can Non-lytic CD8+T Cells Drive HIV-1 Escape?

The CD8+ T cell effector mechanisms that mediate control of HIV-1 and SIV infections remain poorly understood. Recent work suggests that the mechanism may be primarily non-lytic. This is in apparent conflict with the observation that SIV and HIV-1 variants that escape CD8+ T cell surveillance are frequently selected. Whilst it is clear that a variant that has escaped a lytic response can have a fitness advantage compared to the wild-type, it is less obvious that this holds in the face of non-lytic control where both wild-type and variant infected cells would be affected by soluble factors. In particular, the high motility of T cells in lymphoid tissue would be expected to rapidly destroy local effects making selection of escape variants by non-lytic responses unlikely. The observation of frequent HIV-1 and SIV escape poses a number of questions. Most importantly, is the consistent observation of viral escape proof that HIV-1- and SIV-specific CD8+ T cells lyse infected cells or can this also be the result of non-lytic control? Additionally, the rate at which a variant strain escapes a lytic CD8+ T cell response is related to the strength of the response. Is the same relationship true for a non-lytic response? Finally, the potential anti-viral control mediated by non-lytic mechanisms compared to lytic mechanisms is unknown. These questions cannot be addressed with current experimental techniques nor with the standard mathematical models. Instead we have developed a 3D cellular automaton model of HIV-1 which captures spatial and temporal dynamics. The model reproduces in vivo HIV-1 dynamics at the cellular and population level. Using this model we demonstrate that non-lytic effector mechanisms can select for escape variants but that outgrowth of the variant is slower and less frequent than from a lytic response so that non-lytic responses can potentially offer more durable control

Integrated high-content quantification of intracellular ROS levels and mitochondrial morphofunction

Oxidative stress arises from an imbalance between the production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and their removal by cellular antioxidant systems. Especially under pathological conditions, mitochondria constitute a relevant source of cellular ROS. These organelles harbor the electron transport chain, bringing electrons in close vicinity to molecular oxygen. Although a full understanding is still lacking, intracellular ROS generation and mitochondrial function are also linked to changes in mitochondrial morphology. To study the intricate relationships between the different factors that govern cellular redox balance in living cells, we have developed a high-contentmicroscopy-based strategy for simultaneous quantification of intracellular ROS levels and mitochondrial morphofunction. Here, we summarize the principles of intracellular ROS generation and removal, and we explain the major considerations for performing quantitative microscopy analyses of ROS and mitochondrial morphofunction in living cells. Next, we describe our workflow, and finally, we illustrate that a multiparametric readout enables the unambiguous classification of chemically perturbed cells as well as laminopathy patient cells