Synthetic learner: model-free inference on treatments over time

Understanding of the effect of a particular treatment or a policy pertains to many areas of interest -- ranging from political economics, marketing to health-care and personalized treatment studies. In this paper, we develop a non-parametric, model-free test for detecting the effects of treatment over time that extends widely used Synthetic Control tests. The test is built on counterfactual predictions arising from many learning algorithms. In the Neyman-Rubin potential outcome framework with possible carry-over effects, we show that the proposed test is asymptotically consistent for stationary, beta mixing processes. We do not assume that class of learners captures the correct model necessarily. We also discuss estimates of the average treatment effect, and we provide regret bounds on the predictive performance. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first set of results that allow for example any Random Forest to be useful for provably valid statistical inference in the Synthetic Control setting. In experiments, we show that our Synthetic Learner is substantially more powerful than classical methods based on Synthetic Control or Difference-in-Differences, especially in the presence of non-linear outcome models

Entry barriers in Italian retail trade

The 1998 reform of the Italian retail trade sector delegated to the regional governments the regulation of entry of large retail shops. We use the local variation in regulation to determine the effects of entry barriers on firm performance for a representative sample of medium and large retail outlets. Using a diff-in-diff approach, we find that entry barriers are associated with substantially higher profit margins and substantially lower productivity of incumbent firms. We also find that liberalizing entry has a positive effect on investment in ICT, which the recent literature has shown to be the main driver of the remarkable sectoral productivity growth in the US. Finally, in the most liberal regions yearly inflation in the CPI component “food and beverages” was approximately half a percentage point lower than in the other regions: higher productivity coupled with lower margins resulted in lower consumer prices.entry barriers, productivity growth, technology adoption, retail trade

An Empirical Micro Matching Model with an Application to Italy and Spain

A large literature investigates the role of frictions in explaining labour market dynamics. Their presence is often summarized by an aggregate matching function relating the number of job matches to total unemployment and total vacancies. Most empirical specifications, however, are only reduced forms with no micro-foundation. Further, for many countries, empirical research on the matching function cannot be carried out because data on vacancies are simply not available. This paper looks at a job match as a transition from non-employment to employment. This transition is decomposed into two parts, one determined by the matching technology and one by individual search intensity. We show how the micro-founded model of Pissarides (1979) can be identified using only microdata on labour market transitions. This enables us to obtain a measure of market tightness even without information on the demand side of the market. The method is then applied to estimating the Italian and Spanish matching functions using data from the quarterly labour force surveys.Matching function, market tightness, labour market transitions, search intensity

Does the ILO Definition Capture All Unemployment?

The labour market status of many non-working persons is at the boundary between unemployment and inactivity. Like the unemployed, they seek and are available for work; unlike them, their last search action was not recent enough to meet the ILO definition of unemployment. In this paper we examine by non-parametric tests how the transition probabilities of these out-of-the-labour-force job seekers differ from those of the unemployed as well as the other non-participants. First, using data from the European Community Household Panel, we show that in most EU countries these job seekers constitute a distinct labour market state. Second, we rely on information only available in the Italian Labour Force Survey to derive a measure of search intensity which we use to break down the out-of-the-labour-force job seekers. On the basis of their transition probabilities, the most active are indistinguishable from the unemployed.unemployment, ILO classifications, transition probabilities

Policy design in experiments with unknown interference

This paper proposes an experimental design for estimation and inference on welfare-maximizing policies in the presence of spillover effects. I consider a setting where units are organized into a finite number of large clusters and interact in unobserved ways within each cluster. As a first contribution, I introduce a single-wave experiment to estimate the marginal effect of a change in the treatment probabilities taking spillovers into account and test for policy optimality. The design randomizes treatments independently within clusters and induces local perturbations to treatment probabilities within pairs of clusters. Using the estimated marginal effect, I construct a practical test for whether a given treatment allocation rule maximizes welfare, and I characterize its asymptotic properties. The idea is that researchers should report estimates of the marginal effect and test for welfare-maximizing policies: the marginal effect indicates the direction for a welfare improvement, and the test provides evidence on whether it is worth conducting additional experiments to estimate a welfare-improving treatment allocation. As a second contribution, I design a multiple-wave experiment to estimate treatment assignment rules and maximize welfare. I derive small-sample guarantees on the difference between the maximum attainable welfare and the welfare evaluated at the estimated policy (regret). A corollary of such guarantees is that the regret converges to zero linearly in the number of iterations and clusters. Simulations calibrated to existing experiments on information diffusion and cash-transfer programs show that the method leads to significant welfare improvements

SLIDES: A Case Study of the Roan Plateau Area

Presenter: Mary Viviano, EnCana Oil & Gas (USA) Inc. 14 slide

SLIDES: A Case Study of the Roan Plateau Area

Presenter: Mary Viviano, EnCana Oil & Gas (USA) Inc. 14 slide

Interreligious Dialogue in the Thought of Benedict XVI: Ecclesiological Foundations and Distinctive Characteristics

Since the Second Vatican Council, Catholic teaching has placed great emphasis on in interreligious dialogue as an integral aspect of the Church’s mission. However there remains a tension between interreligious dialogue and the church’s duty of proclaiming the gospel that constantly calls for clarification. By articulating the ecclesiological foundations of interreligious dialogue, Benedict XVI has significantly contributed to clarify the Catholic understanding of its nature and characteristics, and also suggested concrete ways in which Christians and the followers of other religions are called to engage in constructive dialogue for the good of the whole of humanity

Hidden Consequences of a First-Born Boy for Mothers

We show that in the US, the UK, Italy and Sweden women whose first child is a boy are less likely to work in a typical week and work fewer hours than women with first-born girls. The puzzle is why women in these countries react in this way to the sex of their first child, which is chosen randomly by nature. We consider two explanations. As Dahl and Moretti (2008) we show that first-born boys positively affect the probability that a marriage survives, but differently from them and from the literature on developing countries, we show that after a first-born boy the probability that women have more children increases. In these advanced economies the negative impact on fertility deriving from the fact that fewer pregnancies are needed to get a boy is more than compensated by the positive effect on fertility deriving from the greater stability of marriages, which is neglected by studies that focus on married women only.preference for sons, female labour supply, mothers’ behaviour