Economic and climatic models for estimating coffee supply

O objetivo deste trabalho foi estimar a oferta cafeeira por meio da calibração de modelos estatísticos, com variáveis econômicas e climáticas, das principais regiões produtoras do Estado de São Paulo. As regiões estudadas foram Batatais, Caconde, Cássia dos Coqueiros, Cristais Paulista, Espírito Santo do Pinhal, Marília, Mococa e Osvaldo Cruz. Foram utilizados dados de oferta cafeeira, variáveis econômicas (crédito rural, crédito rural na agricultura e valor da produção) e variáveis climáticas (temperatura do ar, precipitação pluvial, evapotranspiração potencial, deficiência e excedente hídrico) de cada região, para o período de 2000–2014. Os modelos foram calibrados com uso de técnicas de regressão linear múltipla, e todas as combinações possíveis foram testadas para a seleção das variáveis. A oferta cafeeira foi a variável dependente, e as demais, as independentes. A acurácia e a precisão dos modelos foram analisadas pelo erro percentual médio e pelo coeficiente de determinação ajustado, respectivamente. As variáveis que mais influenciam a oferta cafeeira são o valor de produção e a temperatura do ar. É possível estimar a oferta cafeeira com regressões lineares múltiplas por meio de variáveis econômicas e elementos climáticos. Os modelos mais acurados são os calibrados para estimar a oferta cafeeira das regiões de Cássia dos Coqueiros e Osvaldo Cruz.The objective of this work was to estimate the coffee supply by calibrating statistical models with economic and climatic variables for the main producing regions of the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The regions were Batatais, Caconde, Cássia dos Coqueiros, Cristais Paulista, Espírito Santo do Pinhal, Marília, Mococa, and Osvaldo Cruz. Data on coffee supply, economic variables (rural credit, rural agricultural credit, and production value), and climatic variables (air temperature, rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, water deficit, and water surplus) for each region, during the period from 2000–2014, were used. The models were calibrated using multiple linear regression, and all possible combinations were tested for selecting the variables. Coffee supply was the dependent variable, and the other ones were considered independent. The accuracy and precision of the models were assessed by the mean absolute percentage error and the adjusted coefficient of determination, respectively. The variables that most affect coffee supply are production value and air temperature. Coffee supply can be estimated with multiple linear regressions using economic and climatic variables. The most accurate models are those calibrated to estimate coffee supply for the regions of Cássia dos Coqueiros and Osvaldo Cruz

Lowered Cisplatin Dose And No Bleomycin In The Treatment Of Pediatric Germ Cell Tumors: Results Of The Gct-99 Protocol From The Brazilian Germ Cell Pediatric Oncology Cooperative Group

Purpose We describe the results of a risk-adapted, response-based therapeutic approach from the Brazilian GCT-99 study on germ cell tumors. Patients and Methods From May 1999 to October 2009, 579 participants were enrolled in the Brazilian GCT-99 study. Treatment, defined as specific chemotherapy regimen and number of cycles, was allocated by means of risk-group assignment at diagnosis with consideration for stage and primary tumor site. Patients at low risk received no chemotherapy. Patients at intermediate risk (IR) with a good response (GR) received four cycles of platinum and etoposide (PE), for total doses of platinum 420 mg/m2 and etoposide 2,040 mg/m2. Patients at IR with a partial response (PR) received three cycles of PE plus three cycles of ifosfamide, vinblastine, and bleomycin. Patients at high risk (HR) with a GR received four cycles of PE and ifosfamide (PEI) at total doses of platinum 420 mg/m2, etoposide 1,200 mg/m2, and ifosfamide 30 g/m2. Patients at HR with a PR received six cycles of PEI. Results The risk-group distribution was 213 LR, 138 IR, and 129 HR for 480 evaluable patients. Overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS) rates at 10 years were, respectively, 90% and 88.6% in the IR-GR group (n = 126) and 74.1% and 74.1% in the IR-PR group (n = 12). Ten-year rates for the HR-GR group (n = 86) were an OS of 66.8% and an EFS of 62.5%. The HR-PR group (n = 43) had an OS of 74.8% and an EFS of 73.4%. In univariable and multivariable analysis, increased serum lactate dehydrogenase level and histology for a metastatic immature teratoma were prognostic of a worsened outcome. Conclusion Reduction of therapy to two drugs did not compromise survival outcomes for patients in the IR-GR group, and escalation of therapy with PEI did not significantly improve OS and EFS in patients at HR. © 2016 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.34660361