Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction with Structured Memory Hierarchies

This paper presents a novel framework for human trajectory prediction based on multimodal data (video and radar). Motivated by recent neuroscience discoveries, we propose incorporating a structured memory component in the human trajectory prediction pipeline to capture historical information to improve performance. We introduce structured LSTM cells for modelling the memory content hierarchically, preserving the spatiotemporal structure of the information and enabling us to capture both short-term and long-term context. We demonstrate how this architecture can be extended to integrate salient information from multiple modalities to automatically store and retrieve important information for decision making without any supervision. We evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed models on a novel multimodal dataset that we introduce, consisting of 40,000 pedestrian trajectories, acquired jointly from a radar system and a CCTV camera system installed in a public place. The performance is also evaluated on the publicly available New York Grand Central pedestrian database. In both settings, the proposed models demonstrate their capability to better anticipate future pedestrian motion compared to existing state of the art.Comment: To appear in ECML-PKDD 201

Influence of Quaternary Benzophenantridine and Protopine Alkaloids on Growth Performance, Dietary Energy, Carcass Traits, Visceral Mass, and Rumen Health in Finishing Ewes under Conditions of Severe Temperature-humidity Index.

Twenty Pelibuey×Katahdin ewes (35±2.3 kg) were used to determine the effects of the consumption of standardized plant extract containing a mixture of quaternary benzophenanthridine alkaloids and protopine alkaloids (QBA+PA) on growth performance, dietary energetics, visceral mass, and ruminal epithelial health in heat-stressed ewes fed with a high-energy corn-based diet. The basal diet (13.9% crude protein and 2.09 Mcal of net energy [NE] of maintenance/kg of dry matter) contained 49.7% starch and 15.3% neutral detergent fiber. Source of QBA+PA was Sangrovit RS (SANG) which contains 3 g of quaternary benzophenathridine and protopine alkaloids per kg of product. Treatments consisted of a daily consumption of 0 or 0.5 g SANG/ewe. Ewes were grouped by weight and assigned to 10 pens (5 pens/treatment), with two ewes per pen. The experimental period lasted 70 days. The mean temperature humidity index during the course of this experiment was 81.7±1.0 (severe heat stress). There were no treatment effects on water intake. Dry matter intake was not affected (p = 0.70) by treatments, but the group fed SANG had a numerically (11.2%) higher gain in comparison to the control group, SANG improved gain efficiency (8.3%, p = 0.04), dietary NE (5.2%, p<0.01) and the observed-to-expected NE (5.9%, p<0.01). Supplemental SANG did not affect (p≥0.12) carcass characteristics, chemical composition of shoulder, and organ weights (g/kg empty body weight) of stomach complex, intestines, and heart/lung. Supplemental SANG decreased liver weight (10.3%, p = 0.02) and increased visceral fat (16.9%, p = 0.02). Rumen epithelium of ewes fed SANG had lower scores for cellular dropsical degeneration (2.08 vs 2.34, p = 0.02), parakeratosis (1.30 vs 1.82, p = 0.03) and neutrophil infiltration (2.08 vs 2.86, p = 0.05) than controls. It is concluded that SANG supplementation helped ameliorate the negative effects of severe heat on growth performance of feedlot ewes fed high-energy corn-based diets. Improvement in energetic efficiency may have been mediated, in part, by anti-inflammatory effects of supplemental SANG and corresponding enhancement of nutrient uptake

Topoisomer Differentiation of Molecular Knots by FTICR MS: Lessons from Class II Lasso Peptides

Lasso peptides constitute a class of bioactive peptides sharing a knotted structure where the C-terminal tail of the peptide is threaded through and trapped within an N-terminalmacrolactamring. The structural characterization of lasso structures and differentiation from their unthreaded topoisomers is not trivial and generally requires the use of complementary biochemical and spectroscopic methods. Here we investigated two antimicrobial peptides belonging to the class II lasso peptide family and their corresponding unthreaded topoisomers: microcin J25 (MccJ25), which is known to yield two-peptide product ions specific of the lasso structure under collisioninduced dissociation (CID), and capistruin, for which CID does not permit to unambiguously assign the lasso structure. The two pairs of topoisomers were analyzed by electrospray ionization Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (ESI-FTICR MS) upon CID, infrared multiple photon dissociation (IRMPD), and electron capture dissociation (ECD). CID and ECDspectra clearly permitted to differentiate MccJ25 from its non-lasso topoisomer MccJ25-Icm, while for capistruin, only ECD was informative and showed different extent of hydrogen migration (formation of c\bullet/z from c/z\bullet) for the threaded and unthreaded topoisomers. The ECD spectra of the triply-charged MccJ25 and MccJ25-lcm showed a series of radical b-type product ions {\eth}b0In{\TH}. We proposed that these ions are specific of cyclic-branched peptides and result from a dual c/z\bullet and y/b dissociation, in the ring and in the tail, respectively. This work shows the potentiality of ECD for structural characterization of peptide topoisomers, as well as the effect of conformation on hydrogen migration subsequent to electron capture

Identification of candidate pelagic marine protected areas through a seabird seasonal-, multispecific- and extinction risk-based approach

With increasing pressure on the oceans from environmental change, there has been a global call for improved protection of marine ecosystems through the implementation of marine protected areas (MPAs). Here, we used species distribution modelling (SDM) of tracking data from 14 seabird species to identify key marine areas in the southwest Atlantic Ocean, valuing areas based on seabird species occurrence, seasonality and extinction risk. We also compared overlaps between the outputs generated by the SDM and layers representing important human threats (fishing intensity, ship density, plastic and oil pollution, ocean acidification), and calculated loss in conservation value using fishing and ship density as cost layers. The key marine areas were located on the southern Patagonian Shelf, overlapping extensively with areas of high fishing activity, and did not change seasonally, while seasonal areas were located off south and southeast Brazil and overlapped with areas of high plastic pollution and ocean acidification. Non-seasonal key areas were located off northeast Brazil on an area of high biodiversity, and with relatively low human impacts. We found support for the use of seasonal areas depending on the seabird assemblage used, because there was a loss in conservation value for the seasonal compared to the non-seasonal approach when using ‘cost’ layers. Our approach, accounting for seasonal changes in seabird assemblages and their risk of extinction, identified additional candidate areas for incorporation in the network of pelagic MPAs

Simpson's paradox and calculation of number needed to treat from meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Calculation of numbers needed to treat (NNT) is more complex from meta-analysis than from single trials. Treating the data as if it all came from one trial may lead to misleading results when the trial arms are imbalanced. DISCUSSION: An example is shown from a published Cochrane review in which the benefit of nursing intervention for smoking cessation is shown by formal meta-analysis of the individual trial results. However if these patients were added together as if they all came from one trial the direction of the effect appears to be reversed (due to Simpson's paradox). Whilst NNT from meta-analysis can be calculated from pooled Risk Differences, this is unlikely to be a stable method unless the event rates in the control groups are very similar. Since in practice event rates vary considerably, the use a relative measure, such as Odds Ratio or Relative Risk is advocated. These can be applied to different levels of baseline risk to generate a risk specific NNT for the treatment. SUMMARY: The method used to calculate NNT from meta-analysis should be clearly stated, and adding the patients from separate trials as if they all came from one trial should be avoided

Targeted Drug Delivery by Gemtuzumab Ozogamicin: Mechanism-Based Mathematical Model for Treatment Strategy Improvement and Therapy Individualization

Gemtuzumab ozogamicin (GO) is a chemotherapy-conjugated anti-CD33 monoclonal antibody effective in some patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). The optimal treatment schedule and optimal timing of GO administration relative to other agents remains unknown. Conventional pharmacokinetic analysis has been of limited insight for the schedule optimization. We developed a mechanism-based mathematical model and employed it to analyze the time-course of free and GO-bound CD33 molecules on the lekemic blasts in individual AML patients treated with GO. We calculated expected intravascular drug exposure (I-AUC) as a surrogate marker for the response to the drug. A high CD33 production rate and low drug efflux were the most important determinants of high I-AUC, characterizing patients with favorable pharmacokinetic profile and, hence, improved response. I-AUC was insensitive to other studied parameters within biologically relevant ranges, including internalization rate and dissociation constant. Our computations suggested that even moderate blast burden reduction prior to drug administration enables lowering of GO doses without significantly compromising intracellular drug exposure. These findings indicate that GO may optimally be used after cyto-reductive chemotherapy, rather than before, or concomitantly with it, and that GO efficacy can be maintained by dose reduction to 6 mg/m2 and a dosing interval of 7 days. Model predictions are validated by comparison with the results of EORTC-GIMEMA AML19 clinical trial, where two different GO schedules were administered. We suggest that incorporation of our results in clinical practice can serve identification of the subpopulation of elderly patients who can benefit most of the GO treatment and enable return of the currently suspended drug to clinic

Swimming with Predators and Pesticides: How Environmental Stressors Affect the Thermal Physiology of Tadpoles

To forecast biological responses to changing environments, we need to understand how a species’s physiology varies through space and time and assess how changes in physiological function due to environmental changes may interact with phenotypic changes caused by other types of environmental variation. Amphibian larvae are well known for expressing environmentally induced phenotypes, but relatively little is known about how these responses might interact with changing temperatures and their thermal physiology. To address this question, we studied the thermal physiology of grey treefrog tadpoles (Hyla versicolor) by determining whether exposures to predator cues and an herbicide (Roundup) can alter their critical maximum temperature (CTmax) and their swimming speed across a range of temperatures, which provides estimates of optimal temperature (Topt) for swimming speed and the shape of the thermal performance curve (TPC). We discovered that predator cues induced a 0.4uC higher CTmax value, whereas the herbicide had no effect. Tadpoles exposed to predator cues or the herbicide swam faster than control tadpoles and the increase in burst speed was higher near Topt. In regard to the shape of the TPC, exposure to predator cues increased Topt by 1.5uC, while exposure to the herbicide marginally lowered Topt by 0.4uC. Combining predator cues and the herbicide produced an intermediate Topt that was 0.5uC higher than the control. To our knowledge this is the first study to demonstrate a predator altering the thermal physiology of amphibian larvae (prey) by increasing CTmax, increasing the optimum temperature, and producing changes in the thermal performance curves. Furthermore, these plastic responses of CTmax and TPC to different inducing environments should be considered when forecasting biological responses to global warming.Peer reviewe