Does adding risk-trends to survival models improve in-hospital mortality predictions? A cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Clinicians informally assess changes in patients' status over time to prognosticate their outcomes. The incorporation of trends in patient status into regression models could improve their ability to predict outcomes. In this study, we used a unique approach to measure trends in patient hospital death risk and determined whether the incorporation of these trend measures into a survival model improved the accuracy of its risk predictions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We included all adult inpatient hospitalizations between 1 April 2004 and 31 March 2009 at our institution. We used the daily mortality risk scores from an existing time-dependent survival model to create five trend indicators: absolute and relative percent change in the risk score from the previous day; absolute and relative percent change in the risk score from the start of the trend; and number of days with a trend in the risk score. In the derivation set, we determined which trend indicators were associated with time to death in hospital, independent of the existing covariates. In the validation set, we compared the predictive performance of the existing model with and without the trend indicators.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Three trend indicators were independently associated with time to hospital mortality: the absolute change in the risk score from the previous day; the absolute change in the risk score from the start of the trend; and the number of consecutive days with a trend in the risk score. However, adding these trend indicators to the existing model resulted in only small improvements in model discrimination and calibration.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We produced several indicators of trend in patient risk that were significantly associated with time to hospital death independent of the model used to create them. In other survival models, our approach of incorporating risk trends could be explored to improve their performance without the collection of additional data.</p

A Gapless Hard Wall: Magnetic Catalysis in Bulk and Boundary

We study various aspects of fermions and their chiral condensates, both in the bulk of AdS4 spacetime and in the dual boundary theory. For the most part, we focus on a geometry with an infra-red hard wall. We show that, contrary to common lore, there exist boundary conditions in which the hard wall gives rise to a discrete, but gapless, fermionic spectrum. In such a setting, the presence of a magnetic field induces a bulk fermion condensate which spontaneously breaks CP invariance. We develop the holographic dictionary between composite operators and show that this bulk condensate has the interpretation of boundary magnetic catalysis involving a double-trace operator. Finally, we explain how one can replace the hard wall with bulk magnetic monopoles. In such a framework, magnetic catalysis can be viewed as a consequence of the Callan-Rubakov effect.Comment: 43 pages. v2: reference adde

Combinatorial CRISPR-Cas9 screens for de novo mapping of genetic interactions.

We developed a systematic approach to map human genetic networks by combinatorial CRISPR-Cas9 perturbations coupled to robust analysis of growth kinetics. We targeted all pairs of 73 cancer genes with dual guide RNAs in three cell lines, comprising 141,912 tests of interaction. Numerous therapeutically relevant interactions were identified, and these patterns replicated with combinatorial drugs at 75% precision. From these results, we anticipate that cellular context will be critical to synthetic-lethal therapies

In-Vivo Visualization of Tumor Microvessel Density and Response to Anti-Angiogenic Treatment by High Resolution MRI in Mice

Purpose: Inhibition of angiogenesis has shown clinical success in patients with cancer. Thus, imaging approaches that allow for the identification of angiogenic tumors and the detection of response to anti-angiogenic treatment are of high clinical relevance. Experimental Design: We established an in vivo magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) approach that allows us to simultaneously image tumor microvessel density and tumor vessel size in a NSCLC model in mice. Results: Using microvessel density imaging we demonstrated an increase in microvessel density within 8 days after tumor implantation, while tumor vessel size decreased indicating a switch from macro- to microvessels during tumor growth. Moreover, we could monitor in vivo inhibition of angiogenesis induced by the angiogenesis inhibitor PTK787, resulting in a decrease of microvessel density and a slight increase in tumor vessel size. Conclusions: We present an in vivo imaging approach that allows us to monitor both tumor microvessel density and tumor vessel size in the tumor. Moreover, this approach enables us to assess, early-on, treatment effects on tumor microvessel density as well as on tumor vessel size. Thus, this imaging-based strategy of validating anti-angiogenic treatment effects ha

Inferring stabilizing mutations from protein phylogenies : application to influenza hemagglutinin

One selection pressure shaping sequence evolution is the requirement that a protein fold with sufficient stability to perform its biological functions. We present a conceptual framework that explains how this requirement causes the probability that a particular amino acid mutation is fixed during evolution to depend on its effect on protein stability. We mathematically formalize this framework to develop a Bayesian approach for inferring the stability effects of individual mutations from homologous protein sequences of known phylogeny. This approach is able to predict published experimentally measured mutational stability effects (ΔΔG values) with an accuracy that exceeds both a state-of-the-art physicochemical modeling program and the sequence-based consensus approach. As a further test, we use our phylogenetic inference approach to predict stabilizing mutations to influenza hemagglutinin. We introduce these mutations into a temperature-sensitive influenza virus with a defect in its hemagglutinin gene and experimentally demonstrate that some of the mutations allow the virus to grow at higher temperatures. Our work therefore describes a powerful new approach for predicting stabilizing mutations that can be successfully applied even to large, complex proteins such as hemagglutinin. This approach also makes a mathematical link between phylogenetics and experimentally measurable protein properties, potentially paving the way for more accurate analyses of molecular evolution

The deuteron: structure and form factors

A brief review of the history of the discovery of the deuteron in provided. The current status of both experiment and theory for the elastic electron scattering is then presented.Comment: 80 pages, 33 figures, submited to Advances in Nuclear Physic

Stochastic Models of Lymphocyte Proliferation and Death

Quantitative understanding of the kinetics of lymphocyte proliferation and death upon activation with an antigen is crucial for elucidating factors determining the magnitude, duration and efficiency of the immune response. Recent advances in quantitative experimental techniques, in particular intracellular labeling and multi-channel flow cytometry, allow one to measure the population structure of proliferating and dying lymphocytes for several generations with high precision. These new experimental techniques require novel quantitative methods of analysis. We review several recent mathematical approaches used to describe and analyze cell proliferation data. Using a rigorous mathematical framework, we show that two commonly used models that are based on the theories of age-structured cell populations and of branching processes, are mathematically identical. We provide several simple analytical solutions for a model in which the distribution of inter-division times follows a gamma distribution and show that this model can fit both simulated and experimental data. We also show that the estimates of some critical kinetic parameters, such as the average inter-division time, obtained by fitting models to data may depend on the assumed distribution of inter-division times, highlighting the challenges in quantitative understanding of cell kinetics

Growth-inhibitory effects of the chemopreventive agent indole-3-carbinol are increased in combination with the polyamine putrescine in the SW480 colon tumour cell line

BACKGROUND: Many tumours undergo disregulation of polyamine homeostasis and upregulation of ornithine decarboxylase (ODC) activity, which can promote carcinogenesis. In animal models of colon carcinogenesis, inhibition of ODC activity by difluoromethylornithine (DFMO) has been shown to reduce the number and size of colon adenomas and carcinomas. Indole-3-carbinol (I3C) has shown promising chemopreventive activity against a range of human tumour cell types, but little is known about the effect of this agent on colon cell lines. Here, we investigated whether inhibition of ODC by I3C could contribute to a chemopreventive effect in colon cell lines. METHODS: Cell cycle progression and induction of apoptosis were assessed by flow cytometry. Ornithine decarboxylase activity was determined by liberation of CO(2 )from (14)C-labelled substrate, and polyamine levels were measured by HPLC. RESULTS: I3C inhibited proliferation of the human colon tumour cell lines HT29 and SW480, and of the normal tissue-derived HCEC line, and at higher concentrations induced apoptosis in SW480 cells. The agent also caused a decrease in ODC activity in a dose-dependent manner. While administration of exogenous putrescine reversed the growth-inhibitory effect of DFMO, it did not reverse the growth-inhibition following an I3C treatment, and in the case of the SW480 cell line, the effect was actually enhanced. In this cell line, combination treatment caused a slight increase in the proportion of cells in the G(2)/M phase of the cell cycle, and increased the proportion of cells undergoing necrosis, but did not predispose cells to apoptosis. Indole-3-carbinol also caused an increase in intracellular spermine levels, which was not modulated by putrescine co-administration. CONCLUSION: While indole-3-carbinol decreased ornithine decarboxylase activity in the colon cell lines, it appears unlikely that this constitutes a major mechanism by which the agent exerts its antiproliferative effect, although accumulation of spermine may cause cytotoxicity and contribute to cell death. The precise mechanism by which putrescine enhances the growth inhibitory effect of the agent remains to be elucidated, but does result in cells undergoing necrosis, possibly following accumulation in the G(2)/M phase of the cell cycle

Maximal Wall Thickness Measurement in Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy: Biomarker Variability and its Impact on Clinical Care

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to define the variability of maximal wall thickness (MWT) measurements across modalities and predict its impact on care in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). BACKGROUND: Left ventricular MWT measured by echocardiography or cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) contributes to the diagnosis of HCM, stratifies risk, and guides key decisions, including whether to place an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD). METHODS: A 20-center global network provided paired echocardiographic and CMR data sets from patients with HCM, from which 17 paired data sets of the highest quality were selected. These were presented as 7 randomly ordered pairs (at 6 cardiac conferences) to experienced readers who report HCM imaging in their daily practice, and their MWT caliper measurements were captured. The impact of measurement variability on ICD insertion decisions was estimated in 769 separately recruited multicenter patients with HCM using the European Society of Cardiology algorithm for 5-year risk for sudden cardiac death. RESULTS: MWT analysis was completed by 70 readers (from 6 continents; 91% with >5 years' experience). Seventy-nine percent and 68% scored echocardiographic and CMR image quality as excellent. For both modalities (echocardiographic and then CMR results), intramodality inter-reader MWT percentage variability was large (range -59% to 117% [SD ±20%] and -61% to 52% [SD ±11%], respectively). Agreement between modalities was low (SE of measurement 4.8 mm; 95% CI 4.3 mm-5.2 mm; r = 0.56 [modest correlation]). In the multicenter HCM cohort, this estimated echocardiographic MWT percentage variability (±20%) applied to the European Society of Cardiology algorithm reclassified risk in 19.5% of patients, which would have led to inappropriate ICD decision making in 1 in 7 patients with HCM (8.7% would have had ICD placement recommended despite potential low risk, and 6.8% would not have had ICD placement recommended despite intermediate or high risk). CONCLUSIONS: Using the best available images and experienced readers, MWT as a biomarker in HCM has a high degree of inter-reader variability and should be applied with caution as part of decision making for ICD insertion. Better standardization efforts in HCM recommendations by current governing societies are needed to improve clinical decision making in patients with HCM