A Bayesian approach for estimating typhoid fever incidence from large-scale facility-based passive surveillance data

Decisions about typhoid fever prevention and control are based on estimates of typhoid incidence and their uncertainty. Lack of specific clinical diagnostic criteria, poorly sensitive diagnostic tests, and scarcity of accurate and complete datasets contribute to difficulties in calculating age-specific population-level typhoid incidence. Using data from the Strategic Typhoid Alliance across Africa and Asia program, we integrated demographic censuses, healthcare utilization surveys, facility-based surveillance, and serological surveillance from Malawi, Nepal, and Bangladesh to account for under-detection of cases. We developed a Bayesian approach that adjusts the count of reported blood-culture-positive cases for blood culture detection, blood culture collection, and healthcare seeking—and how these factors vary by age—while combining information from prior published studies. We validated the model using simulated data. The ratio of observed to adjusted incidence rates was 7.7 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 6.0-12.4) in Malawi, 14.4 (95% CrI: 9.3-24.9) in Nepal, and 7.0 (95% CrI: 5.6-9.2) in Bangladesh. The probability of blood culture collection led to the largest adjustment in Malawi, while the probability of seeking healthcare contributed the most in Nepal and Bangladesh; adjustment factors varied by age. Adjusted incidence rates were within or below the seroincidence rate limits of typhoid infection. Estimates of blood-culture-confirmed typhoid fever without these adjustments results in considerable underestimation of the true incidence of typhoid fever. Our approach allows each phase of the reporting process to be synthesized to estimate the adjusted incidence of typhoid fever while correctly characterizing uncertainty, which can inform decision-making for typhoid prevention and control

A simple dynamic model explains the diversity of island birds worldwide

International audienc

Treatment of poorly differentiated neuroendocrine tumours with etoposide and cisplatin

The purpose of this study was to evaluate by a retrospective analysis of 53 patients the efficacy of chemotherapy combining etoposide and cisplatin in the treatment of neuroendocrine tumours. The regimen was a combination of etoposide 100 mg m–2 day–1 for 3 days and cisplatin 100 mg m–2 on day 1, given by 2-h intravenous infusion, administered every 21 days. Twelve patients had a well-differentiated and 41 a poorly differentiated neuroendocrine tumour. Toxicity of treatment was assessed in 50 patients and efficacy in 52 patients. Among the 11 patients with a well-differentiated tumour evaluable for tumoural response, only one (9.4%) had a partial response for 8.5 months. Forty-one patients with a poorly differentiated tumour showed an objective response rate of 41.5% (four complete and 13 partial responses); the median duration of response was 9.2 months, the median overall survival 15 months and the median progression-free survival 8.9 months. Haematological grade 3–4 toxicity was observed in 60% of the cases with one treatment-related death, digestive grade 3–4 toxicity in 40% and grade 3 alopecia was constant. No severe renal, hearing and neurological toxicities were observed (grade 1 in 6%, 14%, 72% respectively and no grade >1). We confirm that poorly differentiated neuroendocrine tumours are chemosensitive to the etoposide plus cisplatin combination. However, the prognosis remains poor with a 2-year survival lower than 20% confirming that new therapeutic strategies have to be developed. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

Shared cognition in childhood anxiety: interpretation bias in preschool children and their parents

Although interpretation bias has been associated with the development and/or maintenance of childhood anxiety, its origins remain unclear. The present study is the first to examine intergenerational transmission of this bias from parents to their preschool-aged children via the verbal information pathway. A community sample of fifty parent–child pairs was recruited. Parents completed measures of their own trait anxiety and interpretation bias, their child’s anxiety symptoms, and a written story-stem measure, to capture the way parents tell their children stories. Interpretation bias was assessed in preschool-aged children (aged between 2 years 7 months and 5 years 8 months) using an extended story-stem paradigm. Young children’s interpretation bias was not significantly associated with their own anxiety symptoms. Neither was there evidence for a significant association between parent and child interpretation bias. However, parents who reported they would tell their child one or more threatening story endings in the written story-stem task had significantly higher anxiety than those who did not include any threatening story endings. In turn, children whose parents did not include any threatening endings in their written stories had significantly lower threat interpretations on the child story-stem paradigm, compared to those with parents who included at least one threatening story ending. The results suggest that parental verbal information could play a role in the development of interpretation bias in young children

Status report on emerging photovoltaics

\ua9 2023 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE).This report provides a snapshot of emerging photovoltaic (PV) technologies. It consists of concise contributions from experts in a wide range of fields including silicon, thin film, III-V, perovskite, organic, and dye-sensitized PVs. Strategies for exceeding the detailed balance limit and for light managing are presented, followed by a section detailing key applications and commercialization pathways. A section on sustainability then discusses the need for minimization of the environmental footprint in PV manufacturing and recycling. The report concludes with a perspective based on broad survey questions presented to the contributing authors regarding the needs and future evolution of PV

Longitudinal, population-based study of racial/ethnic differences in colorectal cancer survival: impact of neighborhood socioeconomic status, treatment and comorbidity

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Colorectal cancer, if detected early, has greater than 90% 5-year survival. However, survival has been shown to vary across racial/ethnic groups in the United States, despite the availability of early detection methods.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This study evaluated the joint effects of sociodemographic factors, tumor characteristics, census-based socioeconomic status (SES), treatment, and comorbidities on survival after colorectal cancer among and within racial/ethnic groups, using the SEER-Medicare database for patients diagnosed in 1992–1996, and followed through 1999.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Unadjusted colorectal cancer-specific mortality rates were higher among Blacks and Hispanic males than whites (relative rates (95% confidence intervals) = 1.34 (1.26–1.42) and 1.16 (1.04–1.29), respectively), and lower among Japanese (0.78 (0.70–0.88)). These patterns were evident for all-cause mortality, although the magnitude of the disparity was larger for colorectal cancer mortality. Adjustment for stage accounted for the higher rate among Hispanic males and most of the lower rate among Japanese. Among Blacks, stage and SES accounted for about half of the higher rate relative to Whites, and within stage III colon and stages II/III rectal cancer, SES completely accounted for the small differentials in survival between Blacks and Whites. Comorbidity did not appear to explain the Black-White differentials in colorectal-specific nor all-cause mortality, beyond stage, and treatment (surgery, radiation, chemotherapy) explained a very small proportion of the Black-White difference. The fully-adjusted relative mortality rates comparing Blacks to Whites was 1.14 (1.09–1.20) for all-cause mortality and 1.21 (1.14–1.29) for colorectal cancer specific mortality. The sociodemographic, tumor, and treatment characteristics also had different impacts on mortality within racial/ethnic groups.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In this comprehensive analysis, race/ethnic-specific models revealed differential effects of covariates on survival after colorectal cancer within each group, suggesting that different strategies may be necessary to improve survival in each group. Among Blacks, half of the differential in survival after colorectal cancer was primarily attributable to stage and SES, but differences in survival between Blacks and Whites remain unexplained with the data available in this comprehensive, population-based, analysis.</p

Motor signatures of emotional reactivity in frontotemporal dementia

Automatic motor mimicry is essential to the normal processing of perceived emotion, and disrupted automatic imitation might underpin socio-emotional deficits in neurodegenerative diseases, particularly the frontotemporal dementias. However, the pathophysiology of emotional reactivity in these diseases has not been elucidated. We studied facial electromyographic responses during emotion identification on viewing videos of dynamic facial expressions in 37 patients representing canonical frontotemporal dementia syndromes versus 21 healthy older individuals. Neuroanatomical associations of emotional expression identification accuracy and facial muscle reactivity were assessed using voxel-based morphometry. Controls showed characteristic profiles of automatic imitation, and this response predicted correct emotion identification. Automatic imitation was reduced in the behavioural and right temporal variant groups, while the normal coupling between imitation and correct identification was lost in the right temporal and semantic variant groups. Grey matter correlates of emotion identification and imitation were delineated within a distributed network including primary visual and motor, prefrontal, insular, anterior temporal and temporo-occipital junctional areas, with common involvement of supplementary motor cortex across syndromes. Impaired emotional mimesis may be a core mechanism of disordered emotional signal understanding and reactivity in frontotemporal dementia, with implications for the development of novel physiological biomarkers of socio-emotional dysfunction in these diseases