The Temporal Singularity: time-accelerated simulated civilizations and their implications

Provided significant future progress in artificial intelligence and computing, it may ultimately be possible to create multiple Artificial General Intelligences (AGIs), and possibly entire societies living within simulated environments. In that case, it should be possible to improve the problem solving capabilities of the system by increasing the speed of the simulation. If a minimal simulation with sufficient capabilities is created, it might manage to increase its own speed by accelerating progress in science and technology, in a way similar to the Technological Singularity. This may ultimately lead to large simulated civilizations unfolding at extreme temporal speedups, achieving what from the outside would look like a Temporal Singularity. Here we discuss the feasibility of the minimal simulation and the potential advantages, dangers, and connection to the Fermi paradox of the Temporal Singularity. The medium-term importance of the topic derives from the amount of computational power required to start the process, which could be available within the next decades, making the Temporal Singularity theoretically possible before the end of the century.Comment: To appear in the conference proceedings of the AGI-18 conference (published in the Springer's Lecture Notes in AI series

Perceptions of graduating students from eight medical schools in Vietnam on acquisition of key skills identified by teachers

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The eight main Vietnamese medical schools recently cooperated to produce a book listing the knowledge, attitudes and skills expected of a graduate, including specification of the required level for each skill. The teaching program should ensure that students can reach that level. The objective of this study was to determine the perception of graduating students on whether they had achieved the level set for a selection of clinical and public health skills as a guide for the schools to adjust either the levels or the teaching.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>From all eight schools, 1136 of the 1528 final year students completed questionnaires just before completed all the requirements for graduation, a response rate of 87% overall (ranging from 74–99% per school). They rated their own competence on a scale of 0–5 for 129 skills selected from the 557 skills listed in the book, and reported where they thought they had learned them. The scores that the students gave themselves were then compared to the levels proposed by the teachers for each skill. The proportions of the self-assessed achievement to the levels expected by the teachers, means self-assessed scores and the coefficients of variation were calculated to make comparisons among disciplines, among schools and among learning sites.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Most students felt they had learned most of the skills for key clinical departments to the required level; this varied little among the schools. Self-assessed skill acquisition in public health and minor clinical disciplines was lower and varied more. Sites outside the classroom were especially important for learning skills. The results revealed key similarities and differences between the teachers and the students in their perception about what could be learned and where</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Revising a curriculum for medical schools demands inputs from all stakeholders. Graduating class students can provide valuable feedback on what they have learned in the existing system. Learning objectives should always be checked with students who have followed their study under existing teaching conditions. The information from the graduates helped to identify potential problem areas where either the objectives or the teaching need adjustment.</p

Human Wavelength Discrimination of Monochromatic Light Explained by Optimal Wavelength Decoding of Light of Unknown Intensity

We show that human ability to discriminate the wavelength of monochromatic light can be understood as maximum likelihood decoding of the cone absorptions, with a signal processing efficiency that is independent of the wavelength. This work is built on the framework of ideal observer analysis of visual discrimination used in many previous works. A distinctive aspect of our work is that we highlight a perceptual confound that observers should confuse a change in input light wavelength with a change in input intensity. Hence a simple ideal observer model which assumes that an observer has a full knowledge of input intensity should over-estimate human ability in discriminating wavelengths of two inputs of unequal intensity. This confound also makes it difficult to consistently measure human ability in wavelength discrimination by asking observers to distinguish two input colors while matching their brightness. We argue that the best experimental method for reliable measurement of discrimination thresholds is the one of Pokorny and Smith, in which observers only need to distinguish two inputs, regardless of whether they differ in hue or brightness. We mathematically formulate wavelength discrimination under this wavelength-intensity confound and show a good agreement between our theoretical prediction and the behavioral data. Our analysis explains why the discrimination threshold varies with the input wavelength, and shows how sensitively the threshold depends on the relative densities of the three types of cones in the retina (and in particular predict discriminations in dichromats). Our mathematical formulation and solution can be applied to general problems of sensory discrimination when there is a perceptual confound from other sensory feature dimensions

Graphene Photonics and Optoelectronics

The richness of optical and electronic properties of graphene attracts enormous interest. Graphene has high mobility and optical transparency, in addition to flexibility, robustness and environmental stability. So far, the main focus has been on fundamental physics and electronic devices. However, we believe its true potential to be in photonics and optoelectronics, where the combination of its unique optical and electronic properties can be fully exploited, even in the absence of a bandgap, and the linear dispersion of the Dirac electrons enables ultra-wide-band tunability. The rise of graphene in photonics and optoelectronics is shown by several recent results, ranging from solar cells and light emitting devices, to touch screens, photodetectors and ultrafast lasers. Here we review the state of the art in this emerging field.Comment: Review Nature Photonics, in pres

Using GIS to create synthetic disease outbreaks

BACKGROUND: The ability to detect disease outbreaks in their early stages is a key component of efficient disease control and prevention. With the increased availability of electronic health-care data and spatio-temporal analysis techniques, there is great potential to develop algorithms to enable more effective disease surveillance. However, to ensure that the algorithms are effective they need to be evaluated. The objective of this research was to develop a transparent user-friendly method to simulate spatial-temporal disease outbreak data for outbreak detection algorithm evaluation. A state-transition model which simulates disease outbreaks in daily time steps using specified disease-specific parameters was developed to model the spread of infectious diseases transmitted by person-to-person contact. The software was developed using the MapBasic programming language for the MapInfo Professional geographic information system environment. RESULTS: The simulation model developed is a generalised and flexible model which utilises the underlying distribution of the population and incorporates patterns of disease spread that can be customised to represent a range of infectious diseases and geographic locations. This model provides a means to explore the ability of outbreak detection algorithms to detect a variety of events across a large number of stochastic replications where the influence of uncertainty can be controlled. The software also allows historical data which is free from known outbreaks to be combined with simulated outbreak data to produce files for algorithm performance assessment. CONCLUSION: This simulation model provides a flexible method to generate data which may be useful for the evaluation and comparison of outbreak detection algorithm performance

The Interaction of Hypotaurine and Other Sulfinates with Reactive Oxygen and Nitrogen Species:A Survey of Reaction Mechanisms

Considerable strides have been made in understanding the oxidative mechanisms involved in the final steps of the cysteine pathway leading to taurine. The oxidation of sulfinates, hypotaurine and cysteine sulfinic acid, to the respective sulfonates, taurine and cysteic acid, has never been associated with any specific enzyme. Conversely, there is strong evidence that in vivo formation of taurine and cysteic acid is the result of sulfinate interaction with a variety of biologically relevant oxidants. In the last decade, many experiments have been performed to understand whether peroxynitrite, nitrogen dioxide and carbonate radical anion could be included in the biologically relevant reactive species capable of oxidizing sulfinates. Thanks to this work, it has been possible to highlight two possible reaction mechanisms (direct and indirect reaction) of sulfinates with reactive oxygen and nitrogen species.The sulfinates oxidation, mediated by peroxynitrite, is an example of both reaction mechanisms: through a two-electron-direct-reaction with peroxynitrite or through a one-electron-indirect-transfer reaction. In the indirect mechanism, the peroxynitrite homolysis releases hydroxyl and nitrogen dioxide radical and in addition the degradation of short-lived adduct formed by peroxynitrite and CO2 can generate carbonate radical anion. The reaction of hypotaurine and cysteine sulfinic acid with peroxynitrite-derived radicals is accompanied by extensive oxygen uptake with the generation of transient intermediates, which can begin a reaction by an oxygen-dependent mechanism with the sulfonates, taurine, and cysteic acid as final products. Due to pulse radiolysis studies, it has been shown that transient sulfonyl radicals (RSO2(•)) have been produced during the oxidation of both sulfinates by one-electron transfer reaction.The purpose is to analyze all the aspects of the reactive mechanism in the sulfinic group oxidation of hypotaurine and cysteine sulfinic acid through the results obtained from our laboratory in recent years

Television viewing in Thai infants and toddlers: impacts to language development and parental perceptions

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Effects of television to language development in infants and toddlers, especially in the Asian children, are inconclusive. This study aimed to (a) study time spent on television in Thai infants and toddlers (age < 2 years), (b) investigate the association between time spent on television (as recommended by the American Academy of Paediatrics (AAP), < 2 hours per day) and language development in Thai 2-year-old children, and (c) explore parental perceptions on television toward their child's development.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Two hundred and sixty children and their parents were recruited into the study. Time spent on television and parental perceptions on television viewing toward their child's development were recorded during face-to-face and telephone interviews. Language development was assessed at the age of 2 years using the Clinical Linguistic Auditory Milestone Scale (CLAMS), and parents' report. Association between delayed language development and time spent on television viewing, as well as other various parameters such as gender, maternal education and family income, were analysed using a multivariate logistic regression model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Most Thai infants and toddlers watched television at the age of 6 months, 1 year and 2 years old (98.0, 95.3 and 96.7%, respectively). On average, 1-year-old children watched television 1.23 ± 1.42 hours per day. This increased to 1.69 ± 1.56 hours per day when they were 2 years old. However, watching television longer than 2 hours per day did not associate with delayed language development. On multivariate logistic regression analysis, gender (male) was the only significant factor associated with delayed language development (OR = 6.9, 95% CI = 1.5–31.3). Moreover, 75%, 71%, and 66% of Thai parents believed that television viewing yielded benefits to children's developments.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Thai children commenced watching television at an early age and the amount of television viewing time increased by age. Most parents had positive perceptions to television viewing. The study found no association between time spent on television viewing (≥ 2 hours per day) and delayed language development at the age of 2 years.</p> <p>Gender (male) was the only variable associated with delayed language development.</p

Increasing illness severity in very low birth weight infants over a 9-year period

BACKGROUND: Recent reports have documented a leveling-off of survival rates in preterm infants through the 1990's. The objective of this study was to determine temporal changes in illness severity in very low birth weight (VLBW) infants in relationship to the outcomes of death and/or severe IVH. METHODS: Cohort study of 1414 VLBW infants cared for in a single level III neonatal intensive care unit in Delaware from 1993–2002. Infants were divided into consecutive 3-year cohorts. Illness severity was measured by two objective methods: the Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology (SNAP), based on data from the 1(st )day of life, and total thyroxine (T(4)), measured on the 5(th )day of life. Death before hospital discharge and severe intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) were investigated in the study sample in relation to illness severity. The fetal death rate was also investigated. Statistical analyses included both univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Illness severity, as measured by SNAP and T(4, )increased steadily over the 9-year study period with an associated increase in severe IVH and the combined outcome of death and/or severe IVH. During the final 3 years of the study, the observed increase in illness severity accounted for 86% (95% CI 57–116%) of the variability in the increase in death and/or severe IVH. The fetal death rate dropped from 7.8/1000 (1993–1996) to 5.3/1000 (1999–2002, p = .01) over the course of the study. CONCLUSION: These data demonstrate a progressive increase in illness in VLBW infants over time, associated with an increase in death and/or severe IVH. We speculate that the observed decrease in fetal death, and the increase in neonatal illness, mortality and/or severe IVH over time represent a shift of severely compromised patients that now survive the fetal time period and are presented for care in the neonatal unit

Miscarriage rates after dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) supplementation in women with diminished ovarian reserve: a case control study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Dehydroepinadrosterone (DHEA) supplementation improves pregnancy chances in women with diminished ovarian reserve (DOR), by possibly reducing aneuploidy. Since a large majority of spontaneous miscarriages are associated with aneuploidy, one can speculate that DHEA supplementation may also reduce miscarriage rates.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We retroactively compared, utilizing two independent statistical models, miscarriage rates in 73 DHEA supplemented pregnancies at two independent North American infertility centers, age-stratified, to miscarriages reported in a national U.S. in vitro fertilization (IVF) data base.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>After DHEA supplementation the miscarriage rate at both centers was 15.1% (15.0% and 15.2%, respectively). For DHEA supplementation Mantel-Hänszel common odds ratio (and 95% confidence interval), stratified by age, was significantly lower, relative to odds of miscarriage in the general IVF control population [0.49 (0.25-0.94; p = 0.04)]. Miscarriage rates after DHEA were significantly lower at all ages but most pronounced above age 35 years.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Since DOR patients in the literature are reported to experience significantly higher miscarriage rates than average IVF patients, the here observed reduction in miscarriages after DHEA supplementation exceeds, however, all expectations. Miscarriage rates after DHEA not only were lower than in an average national IVF population but were comparable to rates reported in normally fertile populations. Low miscarriage rates, comparable to those of normal fertile women, are statistically impossible to achieve in DOR patients without assumption of a DHEA effect on embryo ploidy. Beyond further investigations in infertile populations, these data, therefore, also suggest the investigations of pre-conception DHEA supplementation in normal fertile populations above age 35 years.</p