HIV with contact-tracing: a case study in Approximate Bayesian Computation

Missing data is a recurrent issue in epidemiology where the infection process may be partially observed. Approximate Bayesian Computation, an alternative to data imputation methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo integration, is proposed for making inference in epidemiological models. It is a likelihood-free method that relies exclusively on numerical simulations. ABC consists in computing a distance between simulated and observed summary statistics and weighting the simulations according to this distance. We propose an original extension of ABC to path-valued summary statistics, corresponding to the cumulated number of detections as a function of time. For a standard compartmental model with Suceptible, Infectious and Recovered individuals (SIR), we show that the posterior distributions obtained with ABC and MCMC are similar. In a refined SIR model well-suited to the HIV contact-tracing data in Cuba, we perform a comparison between ABC with full and binned detection times. For the Cuban data, we evaluate the efficiency of the detection system and predict the evolution of the HIV-AIDS disease. In particular, the percentage of undetected infectious individuals is found to be of the order of 40%

Improving analysis practice of continuous adverse event outcomes in randomised controlled trials – a distributional approach

Background Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) provide valuable information for developing harm profiles but current analysis practices to detect between-group differences are suboptimal. Drug trials routinely screen continuous clinical and biological data to monitor participant harm. These outcomes are regularly dichotomised into abnormal/normal values for analysis. Despite the simplicity gained for clinical interpretation, it is well established that dichotomising outcomes results in a considerable reduction in information and thus statistical power. We propose an automated procedure for the routine implementation of the distributional method for the dichotomisation of continuous outcomes proposed by Peacock and Sauzet, which retains the precision of the comparison of means. Methods We explored the use of a distributional approach to compare differences in proportions based on the comparison of means which retains the power of the latter. We applied this approach to the screening of clinical and biological data as a means to detect ‘signals’ for potential adverse drug reactions (ADRs). Signals can then be followed-up in further confirmatory studies. Three distributional methods suitable for different types of distributions are described. We propose the use of an automated approach using the observed data to select the most appropriate distribution as an analysis strategy in a RCT setting for multiple continuous outcomes. We illustrate this approach using data from three RCTs assessing the efficacy of mepolizumab in asthma or COPD. Published reference ranges were used to define the proportions of participants with abnormal values for a subset of 10 blood tests. The between-group distributional and empirical differences in proportions were estimated for each blood test and compared. Results Within trials, the distributions varied across the 10 outcomes demonstrating value in a practical approach to selecting the distributional method in the context of multiple adverse event outcomes. Across trials, there were three outcomes where the method chosen by the automated procedure varied for the same outcome. The distributional approach identified three signals (eosinophils, haematocrit, and haemoglobin) compared to only one when using the Fisher’s exact test (eosinophils) and two identified by use of the 95% confidence interval for the difference in proportions (eosinophils and potassium). Conclusion When dichotomisation of continuous adverse event outcomes aids clinical interpretation, we advocate use of a distributional approach to retain statistical power. Methods are now easy to implement. Retaining information is especially valuable in the context of the analysis of adverse events in RCTs. The routine implementation of this automated approach requires further evaluation

Predictors of mortality in primary antiphospholipid syndrome. A single-centre cohort study.

The vascular mortality of antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) ranges from 1.4 % to 5.5 %, but its predictors are poorly known. It was the study objective to evaluate the impact of baseline lupus anticoagulant assays, IgG anticardiolipin (aCL), plasma fibrinogen (FNG) and von Willebrand factor (VWF), platelets (PLT) and of genetic polymorphisms of methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase C677T, of prothrombin G20210A and of paraoxonase-1 Q192R on mortality in primary APS (PAPS). Cohort study on 77 thrombotic PAPS and 33 asymptomatic carriers of aPL (PCaPL) seen from 1989 to 2015 and persistently positive for aPL as per annual review. At baseline all participants were tested twice for the ratios of kaolin clotting time (KCTr), activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTTr), dilute Russell viper venom time (DRVVTr), IgG aCL, FNG, VWF and once for PLT. All thrombotic PAPS were on warfarin with regular INR monitoring. During follow-up 11 PAPS deceased (D-PAPS) of recurrent thrombosis despite adequate anticoagulation yielding an overall vascular mortality of 10 %. D-PAPS had the strongest baseline aPTTr and DRVVTr and the highest mean baseline IgG aCL, FNG, VWF and PLT. Cox proportional hazards model identified baseline DRVVTr and FNG as main predictors of mortality with adjusted hazard ratios of 5.75 (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.5, 22.4) and of 1.03 (95 %CI: 1.01, 1.04), respectively. In conclusion, plasma DRVVTr and FNG are strong predictors of vascular mortality in PAPS; while FNG lowering agents exist further research should be directed at therapeutic strategies able to dampen aPL production

Stratospheric Effects on UV, Speed of Sound, Pressure, and Temperature

The atmosphere is composed of several layers, each with its own distinct environment varying in temperature, pressure, and levels of UV radiation. Quantifying these varying parameters proves to be useful in understanding atmospheric composition in greater detail. Variance in the composition of the atmosphere allows for the study of the evolution of physical phenomena at different altitudes. Our group quantified this variance using a high-altitude weather balloon and designed an experimental method to observe the nature of sound propagation through varying altitudes. The goal was to develop an altitude-dependent model of the speed of sound by using an open-air, microcontroller-based payload. Using our platform, we found that the open-air payload design results in noisy readings. Additionally, our method was restricted to low altitude environments, unable to produce reliable data above 6,700 meters. We address possible improvements and constraints in developing an open-air payload design to derive an altitude-dependent model for sound propagation. Furthermore, we present our findings on the variations in pressure, temperature, and levels of UV radiation during balloon flights at altitudes of up to 30,000 meters. These variations included a proportional decrease in pressure, a temperature inversion at 15,000 meters, and an exceptional increase in both UVA and UVB radiation as altitude increases

Dynamic Mechanisms of the Bactericidal Action of an Al2O3-TiO2-Ag Granular Material on an Escherichia coli Strain.

The bactericidal activity of an Al2O3-TiO2-Ag granular material against an Escherichia coli strain was confirmed by a culture-based method. In particular, 100% of microorganisms were permanently inactivated in 30 to 45 min. The present work aimed to investigate the mechanisms of the bactericidal action of this material and their dynamics on Escherichia coli using different techniques. Observations by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) at different times of disinfection revealed morphological changes in the bacteria as soon as they were put in contact with the material. Notably highlighted were cell membrane damage; cytoplasm detachment; formation of vacuoles, possibly due to DNA condensation, in association with regions exhibiting different levels of electron density; and membrane lysis. PCR and flow cytometry analyses were used to confirm and quantify the observations of cell integrity. The direct exposure of cells to silver, combined with the oxidative stress induced by the reactive oxygen species (ROS) generated, was identified to be responsible for these morphological alterations. From the first 5 min of treatment with the Al2O3-TiO2-Ag material, 98% of E. coli isolates were lysed. From 30 min, cell viability decreased to reach total inactivation, although approximately 1% of permeable E. coli cells and 1% of intact cells (10(5) genomic units·ml(-1)) were evidenced. This study demonstrates that the bactericidal effect of the material results from a synergic action of desorbed and supported silver. Supported silver was shown to generate the ROS evidenced

High on-clopidogrel platelet reactivity in ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack: Systematic review and meta-analysis

Objectives To assess the prevalence of high on-clopidogrel platelet reactivity (HCPR) in patients with ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack (IS/TIA), their outcome and genetic basis of on-treatment response variability in IS/TIA patients. Methods We conducted a comprehensive search of PubMed and EMBASE from their inceptions to March 9, 2019. Studies that reported absolute numbers/percentages of HCRP at any time point after IS/TIA onset evaluated with any type of platelet function tests, clinical outcomes and genotyping data were included. Results Among 21 studies of 4312 IS/TIA patients treated with clopidogrel, the pooled prevalence of HCPR was 28% (95%CI: 24–32%; high heterogeneity: I2 = 88.2%, p < 0.001). Heterogeneity degree diminished across groups defined by the HCPR testing method. Clopidogrel non-responder IS/TIA patients had poorer outcome compared to responders (RR = 2.09, 95%CI: 1.61–2.70; p = 0.036; low heterogeneity across studies: I2 = 27.4%, p = 0.210). IS/TIA carriers of CYP2C19*2 or CYP2C19*3 loss of function alleles had a higher risk of HCPR compared to wild type (RR = 1.69, 95%CI: 1.47–1.95; p < 0.001; I2 = 0.01%, p = 0.475). Conclusions This systematic review shows a high prevalence of clopidogrel resistance in IS/TIA and poor outcome in these patients. CYP2C19 polymorphisms may potentially influence clopidogrel resistance

Epidemiology of giardiasis and assemblages A and B and effects on diarrhea and growth trajectories during the first 8 years of life: Analysis of a birth cohort in a rural district in tropical Ecuador.

BACKGROUND: There are limited longitudinal data on the acquisition of Giardia lamblia infections in childhood using molecular assays to detect and type assemblages, and measure effects of infections on diarrhea risk and childhood growth. METHODS: We analysed stool samples from a surveillance sample within a birth cohort in a rural district in tropical Ecuador. The cohort was followed to 8 years of age for the presence of G. lamblia in stools by quantitative PCR and A and B assemblages by Taqman assay or Sanger sequencing. We explored risk factors associated with infection using generalized estimating equations applied to longitudinal binary outcomes, and longitudinal panel data analysis to estimate effects of infection on diarrhea and growth trajectories. RESULTS: 2,812 stool samples collected between 1 month and 8 years of age from 498 children were analyzed and showed high rates of infection: 79.7% were infected at least once with peak prevalence (53.9%) at 5 years. Assemblage B was accounted for 56.8% of genotyped infections. Risk factors for infection included male sex (P = 0.001), daycare attendance (P<0.001), having a household latrine (P = 0.04), childhood (P<0.001) and maternal soil-transmitted helminth (P = 0.029) infections, and exposures to donkeys (age interaction P = 0.034). G. lamblia was associated with increased risk of diarrhea (per episode, RR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.06, P = 0.011) during the first 3 years of life and a transient impairment of weight (age interaction P = 0.017) and height-for-age (age interaction P = 0.025) trajectories between 1 and 4 years of age. There was no increased risk of either assemblage being associated with outcomes. CONCLUSION: Our data show a relatively high edemicity of G. lamblia transmission during childhood in coastal Ecuador, and evidence that infection is associated with a transiently increased risk of diarrhea during the first 3 years of life and impairment of weight and height between 1 and 4 years