An Inflation Forecasting Model for the Euro Area.

With the European economic integration, the understanding of inflation and inflationary pressures requires to analyse both the national level and the whole Euro area level. This is true in particular for the inflation forecasts that are carried out within the Eurosystem and published four times a year in the ECB Monthly Bulletin. For that purpose, the Banque de France is currently building tools for the Euro area in addition to those already in use for France. The present study puts forward a simple model of short-term developments (one year ahead) in inflation, as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) of the Euro area. This model does not take into account the feed-back effect of prices on activity, which should be considered in order to analyse medium-term price developments. It could hence be improved along these lines in the future. The model includes seven equations, explaining the total HICP of the Euro area and some of its sector-based sub-indexes (services, manufacturing sector, unprocessed food, processed food, energy and underlying inflation, defined as HICP inflation excluding unprocessed food and energy prices). It uses exogenous variables such as unit labour cost, import deflator, indicators of tightening in the labour market, or in the goods market, and indirect tax indicators. We have favoured an empirical approach rather than a strict compliance with theoretical models, paying particularly attention to the fit of the equations to the data. However, this model is able to provide relevant economic interpretations of recent price developments. Finally, we assess the forecasting performance of the model in traditional in-sample and out-of-sample rolling event evaluations. To do so, the forecasts were compared to the ones obtained from simple autoregressive equations, which are also commonly used to forecast short-term price developments. On the whole, the model provides more accurate forecasts than those provided by the autoregressive model, and a sector-based disaggregated approach outperforms a single equation to forecast total HICP. Part of this result may come from dummy variables that correspond to well identified shocks that improve both the econometric characteristics and forecast performance of the equations of our model.Inflation ; Economic Modelling ; Forecast.

Wealth effects: the French case.

This paper studies the relationship between consumption and wealth based on the concept of cointegration. The analysis focuses on French data over the 1987 - 2006 period. This relationship is expressed in two ways: in terms of Marginal Propensity to Consume out of wealth (MPC) and in terms of Elasticity of consumption to wealth. Three concepts of consumption are investigated: total households consumption expenditure, consumption excluding financial services and consumption excluding durable goods. Different estimators are also considered. Based on the MPC approach, when considered as permanent by households, an increase (decrease) in total wealth of one euro would lead to an increase (decrease) of 1 cent in total consumption. In terms of elasticity, an increase (de- crease) of 10% in wealth would imply also a relatively small impact of 0.8 to 1.1% on consumption depending on the concept of consumption considered. In most cases, the effect of a change in financial wealth is bigger than of a change in housing wealth. The results indicate that the wealth effects are smaller in France than in the UK and US but close to what is observed in Italy. In addition, any deviation of the variables from their common trends is corrected at first by adjustments in disposable income in line with what has been uncovered by studies on Germany and consistent with the "saving for the rainy days" approach of Campbell (1987). But our results contrast with the seminal study of Lettau and Ludvigson (2004) in the US where asset prices make the bulk of the adjustment.consumption, wealth effect, France.

Les évolutions comparées des prix à la consommation dans les DOM et en métropole.

Les départements français d’outre-mer (DOM) présentent, par rapport à leurs homologues métropolitains, un certain nombre de caractéristiques susceptibles d’introduire des écarts de niveau et d’évolution de prix avec la métropole. Est-ce le cas ?inflation, départements d’outre-mer, conjoncture outre-mer.

Besoins de financement et viabilité de la dette extérieure dans les pays d’Afrique subsaharienne.

En dépit des allègements de dette dans le cadre de l’initiative PPTE, les pays africains restent vulnérables au risque de surendettement. Le « cadre de viabilité de la dette » reste donc un instrument indispensable, dont la gestion flexible doit permettre de mieux prendre en compte l’objectif de développement et son appropriation par les bailleurs émergents.FMI, Banque mondiale, cadre de viabilité de la dette, initiative PPTE-IADM, Afrique subsaharienne.

Maquette d’inflation zone euro.

Selon la maquette d’inflation pour la zone euro développée à la Banque de France, la reprise de l’inflation sous-jacente en 2007 est la conséquence de tensions cycliques et de la vive progression passée des prix d’importations.Inflation, modélisation économique, prévision.

Mesures et perception de l’inflation en France et dans la zone euro. État des lieux.

La mesure de l’inflation a fait l’objet de nombreux débats récents mais les biais susceptibles d’affecter l’indice des prix à la consommation harmonisé (IPCH), tant à la hausse qu’à la baisse, sont limités en France et dans la zone euro. L’IPCH est donc bien un indicateur pertinent permettant de guider les décisions de politique monétaire.inflation, inflation perçue, inflation sous-jacente.

Simultaneous Induction Heating and Electromagnetic Stirring of a Molten Glass Bath

International audienceThis paper studies solutions for an efficient induction heating and a strong electromagnetic stirring of the molten glass bath through the action of Lorentz forces in a direct induction furnace. Different spatial configurations of AC magnetic fields - travelling, rotating or helicoidal, and the generated molten glass electromagnetic stirring are studied with one-way coupled electromagnetic and hydrodynamic models. For imposed value of the active power induced in the molten glass, the numerical experiments offers the values of the total inductor current and of the supply frequency for which an efficient electromagnetic stirring of molten glass is achieved

The near-infrared spectral energy distribution of {\beta} Pictoris b

A gas giant planet has previously been directly seen orbiting at 8-10 AU within the debris disk of the ~12 Myr old star {\beta} Pictoris. The {\beta} Pictoris system offers the rare opportunity to study the physical and atmospheric properties of an exoplanet placed on a wide orbit and to establish its formation scenario. We obtained J (1.265 {\mu}m), H (1.66 {\mu}m), and M' (4.78 {\mu}m) band angular differential imaging of the system between 2011 and 2012. We detect the planetary companion in our four-epoch observations. We estimate J = 14.0 +- 0.3, H = 13.5 +- 0.2, and M' = 11.0 +- 0.3 mag. Our new astrometry consolidates previous semi-major axis (sma=8-10 AU) and excentricity (e <= 0.15) estimates of the planet. These constraints, and those derived from radial velocities of the star provides independent upper limits on the mass of {\beta} Pictoris b of 12 and 15.5 MJup for semi-major axis of 9 and 10 AU. The location of {\beta} Pictoris b in color-magnitude diagrams suggests it has spectroscopic properties similar to L0-L4 dwarfs. This enables to derive Log10(L/Lsun) = -3.87 +- 0.08 for the companion. The analysis with 7 PHOENIX-based atmospheric models reveals the planet has a dusty atmosphere with Teff = 1700 +- 100 K and log g = 4.0+- 0.5. "Hot-start" evolutionary models give a new mass of 10+3-2 MJup from Teff and 9+3-2 MJup from luminosity. Predictions of "cold-start" models are inconsistent with independent constraints on the planet mass. "Warm-start" models constrain the mass to M >= 6MJup and the initial entropies to values (Sinit >= 9.3Kb/baryon), intermediate between those considered for cold/hot-start models, but likely closer to those of hot-start models.Comment: 19 pages, accepted in Astronomy and Astrophysic

A brown dwarf companion to the intermediate-mass star HR6037

In the course of an imaging survey we have detected a visual companion to the intermediate-mass star HR 6037. In this letter, we present two epoch observations of the binary with NACO/VLT, and near-IR spectroscopy of the secondary with ISAAC/VLT. The NACO observations allow us to confirm HR 6037B as a co-moving companion. Its J and H band ISAAC spectra suggest the object has an spectral type of M9+-1, with a surface gravity intermediate between that of 10 Myr dwarfs and field dwarfs with identical spectral type. The comparison of its Ks-band photometry with evolutionary tracks allows us to derive a mass, effective temperature, and surface gravity of 62+-20 MJup, Teff = 2330+-200 K, and log g = 5.1+-0.2, respectively. The small mass ratio of the binary, -0.03, and its long orbital period, -5000 yr, makes HR 6037 a rare and uncommon binary system.Comment: (5 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in A&A Letters