Applications of Bayesian model selection to cosmological parameters

Bayesian model selection is a tool to decide whether the introduction of a new parameter is warranted by data. I argue that the usual sampling statistic significance tests for a null hypothesis can be misleading, since they do not take into account the information gained through the data, when updating the prior distribution to the posterior. On the contrary, Bayesian model selection offers a quantitative implementation of Occam's razor. I introduce the Savage-Dickey density ratio, a computationally quick method to determine the Bayes factor of two nested models and hence perform model selection. As an illustration, I consider three key parameters for our understanding of the cosmological concordance model. By using WMAP 3-year data complemented by other cosmological measurements, I show that a non-scale invariant spectral index of perturbations is favoured for any sensible choice of prior. It is also found that a flat Universe is favoured with odds of 29:1 over non--flat models, and that there is strong evidence against a CDM isocurvature component to the initial conditions which is totally (anti)correlated with the adiabatic mode (odds of about 2000:1), but that this is strongly dependent on the prior adopted. These results are contrasted with the analysis of WMAP 1-year data, which were not informative enough to allow a conclusion as to the status of the spectral index. In a companion paper, a new technique to forecast the Bayes factor of a future observation is presented.Comment: v2 to v3: minor changes, matches accepted version by MNRAS. v1 to v2: major revision. New results using WMAP 3-yr data, scale-invariant spectrum now disfavoured with moderate evidence. New benchmark test for the accuracy of the method. Bayes factor forecast methodology (PPOD, formerly called ExPO) expanded and now presented in a companion paper (astro-ph/0703063

Size-dependent Surface States on Strained Cobalt Nanoislands on Cu(111)

Low-temperature scanning tunneling spectroscopy over Co nanoislands on Cu(111) showed that the surface states of the islands vary with their size. Occupied states exhibit a sizeable downward energy shift as the island size decreases. The position of the occupied states also significantly changes across the islands. Atomic-scale simulations and ab inito calculations demonstrate that the driving force for the observed shift is related to size-dependent mesoscopic relaxations in the nanoislands.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Low temperature specific heat of the heavy fermion superconductor PrOs4_4Sb12_{12}

We report the magnetic field dependence of the low temperature specific heat of single crystals of the first Pr-based heavy fermion superconductor PrOs$_4$Sb$_{12}$. The low temperature specific heat and the magnetic phase diagram inferred from specific heat, resistivity and magnetisation provide compelling evidence of a doublet ground state and hence superconductivity mediated by quadrupolar fluctuations. This establishes PrOs$_4$Sb$_{12}$ as a very strong contender of superconductive pairing that is neither electron-phonon nor magnetically mediated.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Eating Habits of Professional Firefighters: Comparison With National Guidelines and Impact Healthy Eating Promotion Program.

Firefighters' eating habits may be an additional risk factor for metabolic diseases. We assessed eating habits of firefighters, compared them with national guidelines, and evaluated the impact of a prevention program. Twenty-eight professional firefighters from a Swiss airport benefited from a healthy-eating program. Food intake, eating behavior, and anthropometric data were collected at baseline and 1-year follow-up using an electronic food record, questionnaires, and bio-impedance. Participants had unbalanced diets with low-quality food choices associated with low intakes of fibers and micronutrients compared with national guidelines. Intervention did not impact eating habits or anthropometrics data at the group level, but changes were measured in sub-groups. Main reported barriers for healthy eating were lack of motivation, prioritization, or time. Intensive and culturally tailored prevention interventions targeting nutritional behaviors are needed at the individual, group, and organizational levels

Bubble fluctuations in Ω<1\Omega<1 inflation

In the context of the open inflationary universe, we calculate the amplitude of quantum fluctuations which deform the bubble shape. These give rise to scalar field fluctuations in the open Friedman-Robertson-Walker universe which is contained inside the bubble. One can transform to a new gauge in which matter looks perfectly smooth, and then the perturbations behave as tensor modes (gravitational waves of very long wavelength). For $(1-\Omega)<<1$, where $\Omega$ is the density parameter, the microwave temperature anisotropies produced by these modes are of order $\delta T/T\sim H(R_0\mu l)^{-1/2} (1-\Omega)^{l/2}$. Here, $H$ is the expansion rate during inflation, $R_0$ is the intrinsic radius of the bubble at the time of nucleation, $\mu$ is the bubble wall tension and $l$ labels the different multipoles ($l>1$). The gravitational backreaction of the bubble has been ignored. In this approximation, $G\mu R_0<<1$, and the new effect can be much larger than the one due to ordinary gravitational waves generated during inflation (unless, of course, $\Omega$ gets too close to one, in which case the new effect disappears).Comment: 17 pages, 3 figs, LaTeX, epsfig.sty, available at ftp://ftp.ifae.es/preprint/ft/uabft387.p

Singular behaviour of the electromagnetic field

The singularities of the electromagnetic field are derived to include all the point-like multipoles representing an electric charge and current distribution. Firstly derived in the static case, the result is generalized to the dynamic one. We establish a simple procedure for passing from the first, to the second case.Comment: Latex, 21.pages, no figure

CleanEx: new data extraction and merging tools based on MeSH term annotation

The CleanEx expression database (http://www.cleanex.isb-sib.ch) provides access to public gene expression data via unique gene names as well as via experiments biomedical characteristics. To reach this, a dual annotation of both sequences and experiments has been generated. First, the system links official gene symbols to any kind of sequences used for gene expression measurements (cDNA, Affymetrix, oligonucleotide arrays, SAGE or MPSS tags, Expressed Sequence Tags or other mRNA sequences, etc.). For the biomedical annotation, we re-annotate each experiment from the CleanEx database with the MeSH (Medical Subject Headings) terms, primarily used by NLM (National Library of Medicine) for indexing articles for the MEDLINE/PubMED database. This annotation allows a fast and easy retrieval of expression data with common biological or medical features. The numerical data can then be exported as matrix-like tab-delimited text files. Data can be extracted from either one dataset or from heterogeneous datasets

Coleman - de Luccia instanton of the second order in a brane world

The second order Coleman - de Luccia instanton and its action in the Randall - Sundrum type II model are investigated and the comparison with the results in Einstein's general relativity is done in the present paper.Comment: 4 pages, accepted in IJT

Energy, Nutrient and Food Intakes of Male Shift Workers Vary According to the Schedule Type but Not the Number of Nights Worked.

Shift work is associated with increased risk of chronic diseases due to circadian rhythm disruptions and behavioral changes such as in eating habits. Impact of type of shifts and number of night shifts on energy, nutrient and food intake is as yet unknown. Our goal was to analyze shift workers' dietary intake, eating behavior and eating structure, with respect to frequency of nights worked in a given week and seven schedule types. Eating habits and dietary intakes of 65 male shift workers were analyzed in three steps based on 365 24-h food records: (1) according to the number of nights, (2) in a pooled analysis according to schedule type, and (3) in search of an interaction of the schedule and the timing of intake. Mean nutrient and food group intake during the study period did not depend on the number of nights worked. Amount and distribution of energy intake as well as quality of food, in terms of nutrient and food groups, differed depending on the type of schedule, split night shifts and recovery day (day after night shift) being the most impacted. Shift workers' qualitative and quantitative dietary intakes varied between different schedules, indicating the need for tailored preventive interventions

SO(10) Cosmic Strings and SU(3) Color Cheshire Charge

Certain cosmic strings that occur in GUT models such as $SO(10)$ can carry a magnetic flux which acts nontrivially on objects carrying $SU(3)_{color}$ quantum numbers. We show that such strings are non-Abelian Alice strings carrying nonlocalizable colored ``Cheshire" charge. We examine claims made in the literature that $SO(10)$ strings can have a long-range, topological Aharonov-Bohm interaction that turns quarks into leptons, and observe that such a process is impossible. We also discuss flux-flux scattering using a multi-sheeted formalism.Comment: 37 Pages, 8 Figures (available upon request) phyzzx, iassns-hep-93-6, itp-sb-93-6