Surgery for Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms of the Pancreas: Preoperative Factors Tipping the Scale of Decision-Making

Background: Decision-making in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) of the pancreas depends on scaling the risk of malignancy with the surgical burden of a pancreatectomy. This study aimed to develop a preoperative, disease-specific tool to predict surgical morbidity for IPMNs. Methods: Based on preoperative variables of resected IPMNs at two high-volume institutions, classification tree analysis was applied to derive a predictive model identifying the risk factors for major morbidity (Clavien-Dindo ≥3) and postoperative pancreatic insufficiency. Results: Among 524 patients, 289 (55.2%) underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD), 144 (27.5%) underwent distal pancreatectomy (DP), and 91 (17.4%) underwent total pancreatectomy (TP) for main-duct (18.7%), branch-duct (12.6%), or mixed-type (68.7%) IPMN. For 98 (18.7%) of the patients, major morbidity developed. The classification tree distinguished different probabilities of major complications based on the type of surgery (area under the surve [AUC] 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63-0.77). Among the DP patients, the presence of preoperative diabetes identified two risk classes with respective probabilities of 5% and 25% for the development of major morbidity, whereas among the PD/TP patients, three different classes with respective probabilities of 15%, 20%, and 36% were identified according to age and body mass index (BMI). Overall, history of diabetes, age, and cyst size segregated three different risk classes for new-onset/worsening diabetes. Conclusions: In presumed IPMNs, the disease-specific risk of major morbidity and pancreatic insufficiency can be determined in the preoperative setting and used to personalize the possible surgical indication. Age and overweight status in case of PD/TP and diabetes in case of DP tip the scale toward less aggressive clinical management in the absence of features suggestive for malignancy

Early Results from GLASS-JWST. XIX: A High Density of Bright Galaxies at z≈10z\approx10 in the Abell 2744 Region

We report the detection of a high density of redshift $z\approx 10$ galaxies behind the foreground cluster Abell 2744, selected from imaging data obtained recently with NIRCam onboard {\it JWST} by three programs -- GLASS-JWST, UNCOVER, and DDT\#2756. To ensure robust estimates of the lensing magnification $\mu$, we use an improved version of our model that exploits the first epoch of NIRCam images and newly obtained MUSE spectra, and avoids regions with $\mu>5$ where the uncertainty may be higher. We detect seven bright $z\approx 10$ galaxies with demagnified rest-frame $-22 \lesssim M_{\rm UV}\lesssim -19$ mag, over an area of $\sim37$ sq. arcmin. Taking into account photometric incompleteness and the effects of lensing on luminosity and cosmological volume, we find that the density of $z\approx 10$ galaxies in the field is about $10\times$ ($3\times$) larger than the average at $M_{UV}\approx -21~ (-20)$ mag reported so far. The density is even higher when considering only the GLASS-JWST data, which are the deepest and the least affected by magnification and incompleteness. The GLASS-JWST field contains 5 out of 7 galaxies, distributed along an apparent filamentary structure of 2 Mpc in projected length, and includes a close pair of candidates with $M_{\rm UV}< -20$ mag having a projected separation of only 16 kpc. These findings suggest the presence of a $z\approx 10$ overdensity in the field. In addition to providing excellent targets for efficient spectroscopic follow-up observations, our study confirms the high density of bright galaxies observed in early {\it JWST} observations, but calls for multiple surveys along independent lines of sight to achieve an unbiased estimate of their average density and a first estimate of their clustering.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJL, 13 pages, 4 figure

Non-AIDS defining cancers in the D:A:D Study-time trends and predictors of survival : a cohort study

BACKGROUND:Non-AIDS defining cancers (NADC) are an important cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-positive individuals. Using data from a large international cohort of HIV-positive individuals, we described the incidence of NADC from 2004-2010, and described subsequent mortality and predictors of these.METHODS:Individuals were followed from 1st January 2004/enrolment in study, until the earliest of a new NADC, 1st February 2010, death or six months after the patient's last visit. Incidence rates were estimated for each year of follow-up, overall and stratified by gender, age and mode of HIV acquisition. Cumulative risk of mortality following NADC diagnosis was summarised using Kaplan-Meier methods, with follow-up for these analyses from the date of NADC diagnosis until the patient's death, 1st February 2010 or 6 months after the patient's last visit. Factors associated with mortality following NADC diagnosis were identified using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression.RESULTS:Over 176,775 person-years (PY), 880 (2.1%) patients developed a new NADC (incidence: 4.98/1000PY [95% confidence interval 4.65, 5.31]). Over a third of these patients (327, 37.2%) had died by 1st February 2010. Time trends for lung cancer, anal cancer and Hodgkin's lymphoma were broadly consistent. Kaplan-Meier cumulative mortality estimates at 1, 3 and 5 years after NADC diagnosis were 28.2% [95% CI 25.1-31.2], 42.0% [38.2-45.8] and 47.3% [42.4-52.2], respectively. Significant predictors of poorer survival after diagnosis of NADC were lung cancer (compared to other cancer types), male gender, non-white ethnicity, and smoking status. Later year of diagnosis and higher CD4 count at NADC diagnosis were associated with improved survival. The incidence of NADC remained stable over the period 2004-2010 in this large observational cohort.CONCLUSIONS:The prognosis after diagnosis of NADC, in particular lung cancer and disseminated cancer, is poor but has improved somewhat over time. Modifiable risk factors, such as smoking and low CD4 counts, were associated with mortality following a diagnosis of NADC