A Revised Exoplanet Yield from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS)

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) has a goal of detecting small planets orbiting stars bright enough for mass determination via ground-based radial velocity observations. Here we present estimates of how many exoplanets the TESS mission will detect, physical properties of the detected planets, and the properties of the stars that those planets orbit. This work uses stars drawn from the TESS Input Catalog Candidate Target List and revises yields from prior studies that were based on Galactic models. We modeled the TESS observing strategy to select approximately 200,000 stars at 2-minute cadence, while the remaining stars are observed at 30-min cadence in full-frame image data. We placed zero or more planets in orbit around each star, with physical properties following measured exoplanet occurrence rates, and used the TESS noise model to predict the derived properties of the detected exoplanets. In the TESS 2-minute cadence mode we estimate that TESS will find 1250+/-70 exoplanets (90% confidence), including 250 smaller than 2 Earth-radii. Furthermore, we predict an additional 3100 planets will be found in full-frame image data orbiting bright dwarf stars and more than 10,000 around fainter stars. We predict that TESS will find 500 planets orbiting M-dwarfs, but the majority of planets will orbit stars larger than the Sun. Our simulated sample of planets contains hundreds of small planets amenable to radial velocity follow-up, potentially more than tripling the number of planets smaller than 4 Earth-radii with mass measurements. This sample of simulated planets is available for use in planning follow-up observations and analyses.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJS. Table 2 is available in machine-readable format from https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.613767

Probability of Causation for Lung Cancer After Exposure to Radon Progeny: A Comparison of Models and Data

The estimates of lung cancer risk due to the exposure to radon decay products are based on different data sets from underground mining and on different mathematical models that are used to fit the data. Diagrams of the excess relative rate per 100 working level months in its dependence on age at exposure and age attained are shown to be a useful tool to elucidate the influence that is due to the choice of the model, and to assess the differences between the data from the major western cohorts and those from the Czech uranium miners. It is seen that the influence of the choice of the model is minor compared to the difference between the data sets. The results are used to derive attributable lifetime risks and probabilities of causation for lung cancer following radon progeny exposures

Generating milling tool paths for prismatic parts using genetic programming

AbstractThe automatic generation of milling tool paths traditionally relies on applying complex tool path generation algorithms to a geometric model of the desired part. For parts with unusual geometries or intricate intersections between sculpted surfaces, manual intervention is often required when normal tool path generation methods fail to produce efficient tool paths. In this paper, a simplified model of the machining process is used to create a domain-specific language that enables tool paths to be generated and optimised through an evolutionary process - formulated, in this case, as a genetic programming system. The driving force behind the optimisation is a fitness function that promotes tool paths whose result matches the desired part geometry and favours those that reach their goal in fewer steps. Consequently, the system is not reliant on tool path generation algorithms, but instead requires a description of the desired characteristics of a good solution, which can then be used to measure and evaluate the relative performance of the candidate solutions that are generated. The performance of the system is less sensitive to different geometries of the desired part and doesn’t require any additional rules to deal with changes to the initial stock (e.g. when rest roughing). The method is initially demonstrated on a number of simple test components and the genetic programming process is shown to positively influence the outcome. Further tests and extensions to the work are presented

A Survey of the Czechoslovak Follow-up of Lung Cancer Mortality in Uranium Miners

The major Czechoslovak cohort of uranium miners (S-cohort) is surveyed in terms of diagrams illustrating dependences on calendar year, age, and exposure to radon and radon progeny. An analysis of the dose dependence of lung cancer mortality is performed by nonparametric and, subsequently, by parametric methods. In the first step, two-dimensional isotonic regression is employed to derive the lung cancer mortality rate and the relative excess risk as functions of age attained and of lagged cumulated exposure. In a second step, analytical fits in terms of relative risk models are derived. The treatment is largely analogous to the methods applied by the BEIR IV Committee to other major cohorts of uranium miners. There is a marked dependence of the excess risk on age attained and on time since exposure. A specific characteristic of the Czechoslovak data is the nonlinearity of the dependence of the lung cancer excess risk on the cumulated exposure; exposures on the order of 100 working level months or less appear to be more effective per working level month than larger exposures but, in the absence of an internal control group, this cannot be excluded to be due to confounders such as smoking or environmental exposures. A further notable observation is the association of larger excess risks with longer protraction of the exposures

Development of Prognosis in Palliative care Study (PiPS) predictor models to improve prognostication in advanced cancer: prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE: To develop a novel prognostic indicator for use in patients with advanced cancer that is significantly better than clinicians' estimates of survival. DESIGN: Prospective multicentre observational cohort study. SETTING: 18 palliative care services in the UK (including hospices, hospital support teams, and community teams). PARTICIPANTS: 1018 patients with locally advanced or metastatic cancer, no longer being treated for cancer, and recently referred to palliative care services. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Performance of a composite model to predict whether patients were likely to survive for "days" (0-13 days), "weeks" (14-55 days), or "months+" (>55 days), compared with actual survival and clinicians' predictions. RESULTS: On multivariate analysis, 11 core variables (pulse rate, general health status, mental test score, performance status, presence of anorexia, presence of any site of metastatic disease, presence of liver metastases, C reactive protein, white blood count, platelet count, and urea) independently predicted both two week and two month survival. Four variables had prognostic significance only for two week survival (dyspnoea, dysphagia, bone metastases, and alanine transaminase), and eight variables had prognostic significance only for two month survival (primary breast cancer, male genital cancer, tiredness, loss of weight, lymphocyte count, neutrophil count, alkaline phosphatase, and albumin). Separate prognostic models were created for patients without (PiPS-A) or with (PiPS-B) blood results. The area under the curve for all models varied between 0.79 and 0.86. Absolute agreement between actual survival and PiPS predictions was 57.3% (after correction for over-optimism). The median survival across the PiPS-A categories was 5, 33, and 92 days and survival across PiPS-B categories was 7, 32, and 100.5 days. All models performed as well as, or better than, clinicians' estimates of survival. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with advanced cancer no longer being treated, a combination of clinical and laboratory variables can reliably predict two week and two month survival

Cultural safety and maternity care for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians

PurposeTo discuss cultural safety and critique the provision of culturally appropriate maternity services to remote Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women in Australia.ProcedureThe literature and policies around ‘culture’ and ‘cultural safety’ are discussed and applied to the provision of maternity services to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women in remote areas of Australia.FindingsThe current provision of maternity services to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women, particularly those living in remote Australia, appears largely inadequate. The provision of culturally safe maternity care requires health system reform at all levels including: the individual practitioner response; the educational preparation of practitioners; the delivery of maternity services and the development of policy at local, state and national level. This paper considers the changes that can be made from the individual practitioner through to the design and implementation of maternity services.Principal conclusionsCultural safety provides a useful framework to improve the delivery of maternity services to remote Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women and their families

The Five Planets in the Kepler-296 Binary System All Orbit the Primary: A Statistical and Analytical Analysis

Kepler-296 is a binary star system with two M-dwarf components separated by 0.2 arcsec. Five transiting planets have been confirmed to be associated with the Kepler-296 system; given the evidence to date, however, the planets could in principle orbit either star. This ambiguity has made it difficult to constrain both the orbital and physical properties of the planets. Using both statistical and analytical arguments, this paper shows that all five planets are highly likely to orbit the primary star in this system. We performed a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo simulation using a five transiting planet model, leaving the stellar density and dilution with uniform priors. Using importance sampling, we compared the model probabilities under the priors of the planets orbiting either the brighter or the fainter component of the binary. A model where the planets orbit the brighter component, Kepler-296A, is strongly preferred by the data. Combined with our assertion that all five planets orbit the same star, the two outer planets in the system, Kepler-296 Ae and Kepler-296 Af, have radii of 1.53 +/- 0.26 and 1.80 +/- 0.31 R_earth, respectively, and receive incident stellar fluxes of 1.40 +/- 0.23 and 0.62 +/- 0.10 times the incident flux the Earth receives from the Sun. This level of irradiation places both planets within or close to the circumstellar habitable zone of their parent star.Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap