Paleoseismological investigations along the Kera fault zone, Western Crete: implications for seismic hazard assessment

The island of Crete is the principal landmass in the Aegean arc system. Collision of the Euroasian plate in the north and the African plate in the south gives rise to the subduction related deformation along the Hellenic arc. As a result of the complex deformation, the area is characterized by high seismic activity. Paleoseismic investigations performed along the Kera fault scarp, which is part of a N-S oriented fault system along the Spatha peninsula (NW-Crete), show clear evidence of repeated normal faulting events. Five distinct episodes of faulting are observed. The first two are probably of Middle-Miocene or younger age representing older tectonic episodes, whereas the last three indicate co-seismic displacements most likely during the Pleistocene and Holocene. This is in good agreement with the previous estimates of Holocene average slip rate and the recurrence time estimate of large earthquakes in the order of ca. lmm/yr and 3000yrs, respectively. The Kera fault represents a NE-SW oriented bend in a N-S fault system and therefore has a minor left-lateral strike-slip component. During the 1980's at least three earthquakes could be associated with the Kera fault. More recently, in 1999, there were three small (with magnitudes between 3.0-4.5) offshore events that are probably associated with the same fault system in the offshore extension (to the north) of the N-S oriented faults along the Spatha peninsula. The existence of these earthquakes as well as the recent paleoseismic results clearly demonstrates the need of revising the seismic hazard assessment of the area. The length of the N-S oriented fault system, where the Kera fault represents the middle segment, reaches to a total of 30 km., and is capable of generating an earthquake of magnitude in the range 6.0-6.7. Such a (shallow) earthquake occurring at a short distance to the densely populated north-western coast of Crete is likely to have significant consequences

Increased Belief Instability in Psychotic Disorders Predicts Treatment Response to Metacognitive Training

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: In a complex world, gathering information and adjusting our beliefs about the world is of paramount importance. The literature suggests that patients with psychotic disorders display a tendency to draw early conclusions based on limited evidence, referred to as the jumping-to-conclusions bias, but few studies have examined the computational mechanisms underlying this and related belief-updating biases. Here, we employ a computational approach to understand the relationship between jumping-to-conclusions, psychotic disorders, and delusions. STUDY DESIGN: We modeled probabilistic reasoning of 261 patients with psychotic disorders and 56 healthy controls during an information sampling task-the fish task-with the Hierarchical Gaussian Filter. Subsequently, we examined the clinical utility of this computational approach by testing whether computational parameters, obtained from fitting the model to each individual's behavior, could predict treatment response to Metacognitive Training using machine learning. STUDY RESULTS: We observed differences in probabilistic reasoning between patients with psychotic disorders and healthy controls, participants with and without jumping-to-conclusions bias, but not between patients with low and high current delusions. The computational analysis suggested that belief instability was increased in patients with psychotic disorders. Jumping-to-conclusions was associated with both increased belief instability and greater prior uncertainty. Lastly, belief instability predicted treatment response to Metacognitive Training at the individual level. CONCLUSIONS: Our results point towards increased belief instability as a key computational mechanism underlying probabilistic reasoning in psychotic disorders. We provide a proof-of-concept that this computational approach may be useful to help identify suitable treatments for individual patients with psychotic disorders

Cryptococcus gattii infection in an immunocompetent host in Greece

We report a case of a 31-year-old otherwise healthy female with pulmonary cryptococcoma along with cryptococcal meningitis due to Cryptococcus gattii molecular type VGI, in Greece. Combined antifungal treatment and surgical excision of pulmonary cryptococcoma yielded a good response

Introduced Pathogens and Native Freshwater Biodiversity: A Case Study of Sphaerothecum destruens

A recent threat to European fish diversity was attributed to the association between an intracellular parasite, Sphaerothecum destruens, and a healthy freshwater fish carrier, the invasive Pseudorasbora parva originating from China. The pathogen was found to be responsible for the decline and local extinction of the European endangered cyprinid Leucaspius delineatus and high mortalities in stocks of Chinook and Atlantic salmon in the USA. Here, we show that the emerging S. destruens is also a threat to a wider range of freshwater fish than originally suspected such as bream, common carp, and roach. This is a true generalist as an analysis of susceptible hosts shows that S. destruens is not limited to a phylogenetically narrow host spectrum. This disease agent is a threat to fish biodiversity as it can amplify within multiple hosts and cause high mortalities