A comparison of estimates of mean annual precipitation from different proxies: a pilot study for the European Neogene

Peer reviewe

Reconstructing palaeotemperatures using leaf floras – case studies for a comparison of leaf margin analysis and the coexistence approach

AbstractIn the past the problems and advantages of the nearest-living-relative (NLR) and leaf physiognomy approaches have been repeatedly discussed and it has been demonstrated that both approaches frequently show broad agreement with each other. However, detailed comparisons of the various methods for accuracy in estimation of palaeoclimate at individual localities are still lacking. Such studies are needed before data obtained from different approaches can be integrated in palaeoclimate maps and models. Moreover, there are some indications that leaf physiognomy and NLR approaches may lead to different results. In this study we applied a physiognomic method based on leaf margin analysis and the coexistence approach, a recent variation of the NLR approach, to two Tertiary palaeofloras (Schrotzburg, Middle Miocene, south Germany; Kleinsaubernitz, Upper Oligocene, east Germany). We demonstrated that both approaches can produce reasonable and consistent results if the standard error of the leaf physiognomy palaeoclimate data is taken into account. However, our results and interpretations indicate that reconstructions based on leaf physiognomy are influenced by factors not related to climate, such as sample size and differential preservation or transport. In contrast, reconstructions for the same fossil assemblages based on the coexistence approach seem to be less affected by taphonomic variables, but may be less sensitive to minor climate changes

Climate-vegetation modelling and fossil plant data suggest low atmospheric CO2 in the late Miocene

There is an increasing need to understand the pre-Quaternary warm climates, how climate-vegetation interactions functioned in the past, and how we can use this information to understand the present. Here we report vegetation modelling results for the Late Miocene (11-7 Ma) to study the mechanisms of vegetation dynamics and the role of different forcing factors that influence the spatial patterns of vegetation coverage. One of the key uncertainties is the atmospheric concentration of CO2 during past climates. Estimates for the last 20 million years range from 280 to 500 ppm. We simulated Late Miocene vegetation using two plausible CO2 concentrations, 280 ppm CO2 and 450 ppm CO2, with a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) driven by climate input from a coupled AOGCM (Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model). The simulated vegetation was compared to existing plant fossil data for the whole Northern Hemisphere. For the comparison we developed a novel approach that uses information of the relative dominance of different plant functional types (PFTs) in the palaeobotanical data to provide a quantitative estimate of the agreement between the simulated and reconstructed vegetation. Based on this quantitative assessment we find that pre-industrial CO2 levels are largely consistent with the presence of seasonal temperate forests in Europe (suggested by fossil data) and open vegetation in North America (suggested by multiple lines of evidence). This suggests that during the Late Miocene the CO2 levels have been relatively low, or that other factors that are not included in the models maintained the seasonal temperate forests and open vegetation.Peer reviewe

Concept drift over geological times : predictive modeling baselines for analyzing the mammalian fossil record

Fossils are the remains organisms from earlier geological periods preserved in sedimentary rock. The global fossil record documents and characterizes the evidence about organisms that existed at different times and places during the Earth's history. One of the major directions in computational analysis of such data is to reconstruct environmental conditions and track climate changes over millions of years. Distribution of fossil animals in space and time make informative features for such modeling, yet concept drift presents one of the main computational challenges. As species continuously go extinct and new species originate, animal communities today are different from the communities of the past, and the communities at different times in the past are different from each other. The fossil record is continuously increasing as new fossils and localities are being discovered, but it is not possible to observe or measure their environmental contexts directly, because the time is gone. Labeled data linking organisms to climate is available only for the present day, where climatic conditions can be measured. The approach is to train models on the present day and use them to predict climatic conditions over the past. But since species representation is continuously changing, transfer learning approaches are needed to make models applicable and climate estimates to be comparable across geological times. Here we discuss predictive modeling settings for such paleoclimate reconstruction from the fossil record. We compare and experimentally analyze three baseline approaches for predictive paleoclimate reconstruction: (1) averaging over habitats of species, (2) using presence-absence of species as features, and (3) using functional characteristics of species communities as features. Our experiments on the present day African data and a case study on the fossil data from the Turkana Basin over the last 7 million of years suggest that presence-absence approaches are the most accurate over short time horizons, while species community approaches, also known as ecometrics, are the most informative over longer time horizons when, due to ongoing evolution, taxonomic relations between the present day and fossil species become more and more uncertain.Peer reviewe

Paleotemperature Proxies from Leaf Fossils Reinterpreted in Light of Evolutionary History

Present-day correlations between leaf physiognomic traits (shape and size) and climate are widely used to estimate paleoclimate using fossil floras. For example, leaf-margin analysis estimates paleotemperature using the modern relation of mean annual temperature (MAT) and the site-proportion of untoothed-leaf species (NT). This uniformitarian approach should provide accurate paleoclimate reconstructions under the core assumption that leaf-trait variation principally results from adaptive environmental convergence, and because variation is thus largely independent of phylogeny it should be constant through geologic time. Although much research acknowledges and investigates possible pitfalls in paleoclimate estimation based on leaf physiognomy, the core assumption has never been explicitly tested in a phylogenetic comparative framework. Combining an extant dataset of 21 leaf traits and temperature with a phylogenetic hypothesis for 569 species-site pairs at 17 sites, we found varying amounts of non-random phylogenetic signal in all traits. Phylogenetic vs. standard regressions generally support prevailing ideas that leaf-traits are adaptively responding to temperature, but wider confidence intervals, and shifts in slope and intercept, indicate an overall reduced ability to predict climate precisely due to the non-random phylogenetic signal. Notably, the modern-day relation of proportion of untoothed taxa with mean annual temperature (NT-MAT), central in paleotemperature inference, was greatly modified and reduced, indicating that the modern correlation primarily results from biogeographic history. Importantly, some tooth traits, such as number of teeth, had similar or steeper slopes after taking phylogeny into account, suggesting that leaf teeth display a pattern of exaptive evolution in higher latitudes. This study shows that the assumption of convergence required for precise, quantitative temperature estimates using present-day leaf traits is not supported by empirical evidence, and thus we have very low confidence in previously published, numerical paleotemperature estimates. However, interpreting qualitative changes in paleotemperature remains warranted, given certain conditions such as stratigraphically closely-spaced samples with floristic continuity

Latitudinal diversity gradients in New World bats: are they a consequence of niche conservatism?

The increase in species diversity from the Poles to the Equator is a major biogeographic pattern, but the mechanisms underlying it remain obscure. Our aim is to contribute to their clarification by describing the latitudinal gradients in species richness and in evolutionary age of species of New World bats, and testing if those patterns may be explained by the niche conservatism hypothesis. Maps of species ranges were used to estimate species richness in a 100 x 100 km grid. Root distances in a molecular phylogeny were used as a proxy for the age of species, and the mean root distance of the species in each cell of the grid was estimated. Generalised additive models were used to relate latitude with both species richness and mean root distance. This was done for each of the three most specious bat families and for all Chiroptera combined. Species richness increases towards the Equator in the whole of the Chiroptera and in the Phyllostomidae and Molossidae, families that radiated in the tropics, but the opposite trend is observed in the Vespertilionidae, which has a presumed temperate origin. In the whole of the Chiroptera, and in the three main families, there were more basal species in the higher latitudes, and more derived species in tropical areas. In general, our results were not consistent with the predictions of niche conservatism. Tropical niche conservatism seems to keep bat clades of tropical origin from colonizing temperate zones, as they lack adaptations to survive cold winters, such as the capacity to hibernate. However, the lower diversity of Vespertilionidae in the Neotropics is better explained by competition with a diverse pre-existing community of bats than by niche conservatism.MJRP was supported by Foundation for Science and Technology, Portugal (www.fct.pt), fellowship SFRH/BD/19620/2004 and SFRH/BPD/ 72845/2010. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. We thank J. P. Granadeiro and R. Lemos for advice on statistical methods, J. A. Diniz-Filho for support with SAM software, and M. A. Dias and P. E. Cardoso for help with the distributional maps. O. R. P. Bininda-Emonds kindly gave us access to the Chiroptera species-level phylogeny. Bat data was provided by NatureServe in collaboration with Bruce Patterson, Wes Sechrest, Marcelo Tognelli, Gerardo Ceballos, the Nature Conservancy-Migratory Bird Program, Conservation International-CABS, World Wildlife Fund-US, and Environment Canada-WILDSPACE - http://www.natureserve.org/infonatura.publishe

The topographic evolution of the Tibetan Region as revealed by palaeontology

The Tibetan Plateau was built through a succession of Gondwanan terranes colliding with Asia during the Mesozoic. These accretions produced a complex Paleogene topography of several predominantly east–west trending mountain ranges separated by deep valleys. Despite this piecemeal assembly and resultant complex relief, Tibet has traditionally been thought of as a coherent entity rising as one unit. This has led to the widely used phrase ‘the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau’, which is a false concept borne of simplistic modelling and confounds understanding the complex interactions between topography climate and biodiversity. Here, using the rich palaeontological record of the Tibetan region, we review what is known about the past topography of the Tibetan region using a combination of quantitative isotope and fossil palaeoaltimetric proxies, and present a new synthesis of the orography of Tibet throughout the Paleogene. We show why ‘the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau’ never occurred, and quantify a new pattern of topographic and landscape evolution that contributed to the development of today’s extraordinary Asian biodiversity

Cenozoic continental climatic evolution of Central Europe

Continental climate evolution of Central Europe has been reconstructed quantitatively for the last 45 million years providing inferred data on mean annual temperature and precipitation, and winter and summer temperatures. Although some regional effects occur, the European Cenozoic continental climate record correlates well with the global oxygen isotope record from marine environments. During the last 45 million years, continental cooling is especially pronounced for inferred winter temperatures but hardly observable from summer temperatures. Correspondingly, Cenozoic cooling in Central Europe is directly associated with an increase of seasonality. In contrast, inferred Cenozoic mean annual precipitation remained relatively stable, indicating the importance of latent heat transport throughout the Cenozoic. Moreover, our data support the concept that changes in atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, although linked to climate changes, were not the major driving force of Cenozoic cooling