Metabolomic profiles predict individual multidisease outcomes

Publisher Copyright: © 2022, The Author(s).Risk stratification is critical for the early identification of high-risk individuals and disease prevention. Here we explored the potential of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy-derived metabolomic profiles to inform on multidisease risk beyond conventional clinical predictors for the onset of 24 common conditions, including metabolic, vascular, respiratory, musculoskeletal and neurological diseases and cancers. Specifically, we trained a neural network to learn disease-specific metabolomic states from 168 circulating metabolic markers measured in 117,981 participants with ~1.4 million person-years of follow-up from the UK Biobank and validated the model in four independent cohorts. We found metabolomic states to be associated with incident event rates in all the investigated conditions, except breast cancer. For 10-year outcome prediction for 15 endpoints, with and without established metabolic contribution, a combination of age and sex and the metabolomic state equaled or outperformed established predictors. Moreover, metabolomic state added predictive information over comprehensive clinical variables for eight common diseases, including type 2 diabetes, dementia and heart failure. Decision curve analyses showed that predictive improvements translated into clinical utility for a wide range of potential decision thresholds. Taken together, our study demonstrates both the potential and limitations of NMR-derived metabolomic profiles as a multidisease assay to inform on the risk of many common diseases simultaneously.Peer reviewe

Metabolomic profiles predict individual multidisease outcomes

Risk stratification is critical for the early identification of high-risk individuals and disease prevention. Here we explored the potential of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy-derived metabolomic profiles to inform on multidisease risk beyond conventional clinical predictors for the onset of 24 common conditions, including metabolic, vascular, respiratory, musculoskeletal and neurological diseases and cancers. Specifically, we trained a neural network to learn disease-specific metabolomic states from 168 circulating metabolic markers measured in 117,981 participants with ~1.4 million person-years of follow-up from the UK Biobank and validated the model in four independent cohorts. We found metabolomic states to be associated with incident event rates in all the investigated conditions, except breast cancer. For 10-year outcome prediction for 15 endpoints, with and without established metabolic contribution, a combination of age and sex and the metabolomic state equaled or outperformed established predictors. Moreover, metabolomic state added predictive information over comprehensive clinical variables for eight common diseases, including type 2 diabetes, dementia and heart failure. Decision curve analyses showed that predictive improvements translated into clinical utility for a wide range of potential decision thresholds. Taken together, our study demonstrates both the potential and limitations of NMR-derived metabolomic profiles as a multidisease assay to inform on the risk of many common diseases simultaneously.Pattern Recognition and Bioinformatic

Effects of Label Noise on Deep Learning-Based Skin Cancer Classification

Recent studies have shown that deep learning is capable of classifying dermatoscopic images at least as well as dermatologists. However, many studies in skin cancer classification utilize non-biopsy-verified training images. This imperfect ground truth introduces a systematic error, but the effects on classifier performance are currently unknown. Here, we systematically examine the effects of label noise by training and evaluating convolutional neural networks (CNN) with 804 images of melanoma and nevi labeled either by dermatologists or by biopsy. The CNNs are evaluated on a test set of 384 images by means of 4-fold cross validation comparing the outputs with either the corresponding dermatological or the biopsy-verified diagnosis. With identical ground truths of training and test labels, high accuracies with 75.03% (95% CI: 74.39–75.66%) for dermatological and 73.80% (95% CI: 73.10–74.51%) for biopsy-verified labels can be achieved. However, if the CNN is trained and tested with different ground truths, accuracy drops significantly to 64.53% (95% CI: 63.12–65.94%, p < 0.01) on a non-biopsy-verified and to 64.24% (95% CI: 62.66–65.83%, p < 0.01) on a biopsy-verified test set. In conclusion, deep learning methods for skin cancer classification are highly sensitive to label noise and future work should use biopsy-verified training images to mitigate this problem

Metabolomic profiles predict individual multidisease outcomes

Publisher Copyright: © 2022, The Author(s).Risk stratification is critical for the early identification of high-risk individuals and disease prevention. Here we explored the potential of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy-derived metabolomic profiles to inform on multidisease risk beyond conventional clinical predictors for the onset of 24 common conditions, including metabolic, vascular, respiratory, musculoskeletal and neurological diseases and cancers. Specifically, we trained a neural network to learn disease-specific metabolomic states from 168 circulating metabolic markers measured in 117,981 participants with ~1.4 million person-years of follow-up from the UK Biobank and validated the model in four independent cohorts. We found metabolomic states to be associated with incident event rates in all the investigated conditions, except breast cancer. For 10-year outcome prediction for 15 endpoints, with and without established metabolic contribution, a combination of age and sex and the metabolomic state equaled or outperformed established predictors. Moreover, metabolomic state added predictive information over comprehensive clinical variables for eight common diseases, including type 2 diabetes, dementia and heart failure. Decision curve analyses showed that predictive improvements translated into clinical utility for a wide range of potential decision thresholds. Taken together, our study demonstrates both the potential and limitations of NMR-derived metabolomic profiles as a multidisease assay to inform on the risk of many common diseases simultaneously.Peer reviewe