Are probabilities overweighted or underweighted when rare outcomes are experienced (rarely)?

When making decisions involving risky outcomes on the basis of verbal descriptions of the outcomes and their associated probabilities, people behave as if they overweight small probabilities. In contrast, when the same outcomes are instead experienced in a series of samples, people behave as if they underweight small probabilities. We present two experiments showing that the existing explanations of the underweighting observed in decisions from experience are not sufficient to account for the effect. Underweighting was observed when participants experienced representative samples of events, so it cannot be attributed to undersampling of the small probabilities. In addition, earlier samples predicted decisions just as well as later samples did, so underweighting cannot be attributed to recency weighting. Finally, frequency judgments were accurate, so underweighting cannot be attributed to judgment error. Furthermore, we show that the underweighting of small probabilities is also reflected in the best-fitting parameter values obtained when prospect theory, the dominant model of risky choice, is applied to the data

Comparing antimicrobial exposure based on sales data

This paper explores the possibilities of making meaningful comparisons of the veterinary use of antimicrobial agents among countries, based on national total sales data. Veterinary antimicrobial sales data on country level and animal census data in both Denmark and the Netherlands were combined with information about estimated average dosages, to make model calculations of the average number of treatment days per average animal per year, at first based on the assumption that the treatment incidence is the same in all species and production types. Secondly, the exposure in respectively animals for meat production and dairy and other cattle (excluding veal and young beef) was estimated, assuming zero use in the dairy and other cattle, and thirdly by assuming respectively 100% oral and 100% parenteral administration. Subsequently, the outcomes of these model calculations were compared with treatment incidences calculated from detailed use data per animal species from the national surveillance programmes in these two countries, to assess their accuracy and relevancy. In Denmark and in the Netherlands, although the computed antimicrobial exposure would seem to be a reasonable estimation of the exposure for all animals as a whole, it differs significantly from the measured exposure for most species. The differences in exposure among animal species were much higher than the overall difference between the two countries. For example, the overall model estimate of 9 treatment days per year for Denmark is a severe overestimation of the true use in poultry (i.e. 3 days), and the overall model estimate of 13 treatment days per year for the Netherlands is a severe underestimation of the true use in veal calves (i.e. 66 days). The conclusion is that simple country comparisons, based on total sales figures, entail the risk of serious misinterpretations, especially if expressed in mg per kg. The use of more precise model calculations for making such comparisons, taking into account differences in dosages and in farm animal demographics, only slightly reduces this risk. Overall model estimates are strongly influenced by animal demographics and a very inaccurate indication of the true differences in exposure, per animal species. To get an appropriate certainty about the true differences in antimicrobial exposure between countries it is an absolute necessity to have reliable information about the use per animal species

Of Black Swans and Tossed Coins: Is the Description-Experience Gap in Risky Choice Limited to Rare Events?

When faced with risky decisions, people tend to be risk averse for gains and risk seeking for losses (the reflection effect). Studies examining this risk-sensitive decision making, however, typically ask people directly what they would do in hypothetical choice scenarios. A recent flurry of studies has shown that when these risky decisions include rare outcomes, people make different choices for explicitly described probabilities than for experienced probabilistic outcomes. Specifically, rare outcomes are overweighted when described and underweighted when experienced. In two experiments, we examined risk-sensitive decision making when the risky option had two equally probable (50%) outcomes. For experience-based decisions, there was a reversal of the reflection effect with greater risk seeking for gains than for losses, as compared to description-based decisions. This fundamental difference in experienced and described choices cannot be explained by the weighting of rare events and suggests a separate subjective utility curve for experience

Carbohydrate Mobilization During Germination of Post-Diapausing Gemmules of the Freshwater Sponge Eunapius fragilis

Volume: 191Start Page: 393End Page: 40

Reflection paper on the use of third and fourth generation cephalosporins in food producing animals in the European Union; development of resistance and impact on human and animal health

Resistance to third and fourth generation cephalosporins is rapidly increasing in bacteria infecting humans. Although many of these problems are linked to human to human transmission and to use of antimicrobials in human medicine, the potential role of community reservoirs such as food producing animals needs to be scrutinized. Resistance to third and fourth generation cephalosporins is emerging in enteric bacteria of food producing animals and also in food of animal origin. The genes encoding resistance to these cephalosporins are transferrable and often linked to other resistance genes. Systemic use of third and fourth cephalosporins selects for resistance, but co-selection by other antimicrobials is also likely to influence prevalence of resistance. Although there are many uncertainties, the potential consequences of a further increase of resistance to this critically important class of antimicrobials in bacteria colonising animals are serious. Measures to counter a further increase and spread of resistance among animals should therefore be considered