Future agricultural conditions in the Nepal Himalaya - A fuzzy logic approach using high resolution climate scenarios

Until the end of the 21st century, ongoing climate change is expected to trigger major changes in site conditions and vertical species distributions in high mountain regions such as the Himalaya. Altitudinal ranges of species used as staple crops in Himalayan agriculture and currently suitable cultivation areas will be affected as well. Changing climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation will modify agricultural land-use options, and assessments of future crop growth conditions are in high demand. This GIS-based approach utilizes high resolution climate data of the present and two future scenarios and relates them to bioclimatic requirements of the five most important crops grown in Nepal: rice, maize, wheat, finger millet and potato. It takes into account soil pH as a basic constraint for the individual crop. The three factors  temperature, precipitation,and soil pH are then combined using a fuzzy logic algorithm. The assessment visualizes the expected shifts in suitable cultivation zones for the individual crops. The results show that wheat is likely to experience the most severe loss of crop suitability until the end of the 21st century, while the cultivation of rice is likely to benefit

Shedding and Transmission of Novel Influenza Virus A/H1N1 Infection in Households—Germany, 2009

Essential epidemiologic and virologic parameters must be measured to provide evidence for policy/public health recommendations and mathematical modeling concerning novel influenza A/H1N1 virus (NIV) infections. Therefore, from April through August of 2009, the authors collected nasopharyngeal specimens and information on antiviral medication and symptoms from households with NIV infection on a daily basis in Germany. Specimens were analyzed quantitatively by using reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction. In 36 households with 83 household contacts, 15 household contacts became laboratory-confirmed secondary cases of NIV. Among 47 contacts without antiviral prophylaxis, 12 became cases (secondary attack rate of 26%), and 1 (8%) of these was asymptomatic. The mean and median serial interval were 2.6 and 3 days, respectively (range: 1-3 days). On average, the authors detected viral RNA copies for 6.6 illness days (treated in time = 5.7 days, not treated in time = 7.1 days; P = 0.06), but they estimated that most patients cease to excrete viable virus by the fifth illness day. Shedding profiles were consistent with the number and severity of symptoms. Compared with other nasopharyngeal specimen types, nasal wash was the most sensitive. These results support the notion that epidemiologic and virologic characteristics of NIV are in many aspects similar to those of seasonal influenza

Comparison of Shedding Characteristics of Seasonal Influenza Virus (Sub)Types and Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09; Germany, 2007–2011

Background: Influenza viral shedding studies provide fundamental information for preventive strategies and modelling exercises. We conducted a prospective household study to investigate viral shedding in seasonal and pandemic influenza between 2007 and 2011 in Berlin and Munich, Germany. Methods: Study physicians recruited index patients and their household members. Serial nasal specimens were obtained from all household members over at least eight days and tested quantitatively by qRT-PCR for the influenza virus (sub)type of the index patient. A subset of samples was also tested by viral culture. Symptoms were recorded daily. Results: We recruited 122 index patients and 320 household contacts, of which 67 became secondary household cases. Among all 189 influenza cases, 12 were infected with seasonal/prepandemic influenza A(H1N1), 19 with A(H3N2), 60 with influenza B, and 98 with A(H1N1)pdm09. Nine (14%) of 65 non-vaccinated secondary cases were asymptomatic/subclinical (0 (0%) of 21 children, 9 (21%) of 44 adults; p = 0.03). Viral load among patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) peaked on illness days 1, 2 or 3 for all (sub)types and declined steadily until days 7–9. Clinical symptom scores roughly paralleled viral shedding dynamics. On the first day prior to symptom onset 30% (12/40) of specimens were positive. Viral load in 6 asymptomatic/subclinical patients was similar to that in ILI-patients. Duration of infectiousness as measured by viral culture lasted approximately until illness days 4–6. Viral load did not seem to be influenced by antiviral therapy, age or vaccination status. Conclusion: Asymptomatic/subclinical infections occur infrequently, but may be associated with substantial amounts of viral shedding. Presymptomatic shedding may arise in one third of cases, and shedding characteristics appear to be independent of (seasonal or pandemic) (sub)type, age, antiviral therapy or vaccination; however the power to find moderate differences was limited

Bericht zur Epidemiologie der Influenza in Deutschland Saison 2016/17

Im Bericht zur Epidemiologie der Influenza in Deutschland werden jedes Jahr die Ergebnisse der Influenzaüberwachung des RKI zusammengefasst. Zentraler Bestandteil für die Bewertung sind die Ergebnisse der syndromi-schen Surveillance akuter respiratorischer Erkrankungen und der virologi-schen Surveillance der Arbeitsgemeinschaft Influenza. In der Gesamtschau war die Grippesaison 2016/17 schwer. Die Schätz werte für Influenza- bedingte Arztbesuche lagen zwar unter denen der ebenfalls schweren Sai-sons 2012/13 und 2014/15, aber insbesondere die Zahl älterer Menschen, die wegen einer Influenzaerkrankung hospitalisiert wurden, war höher als in den Vorsaisons. Zusätzliche Auswertungen der am RKI etablierten Kran-kenhaussurveillance für schwere akute respiratorische Infektionen und die Schätzung der Übersterblichkeit während der Grippewelle in Berlin bestäti-gen die epidemiologische Einschätzung