The heliospheric modulation of cosmic ray protons during increased solar activity: effects of the position of the solar wind termination shock and of the heliopause

International audienceThe effects on the modulation of cosmic ray protons of different positions for the solar wind termination shock and for the heliopause are illustrated for moderate solar maximum conditions. This is done with a numerical model which includes diffusive termination shock acceleration, a heliosheath and drifts. The modulation is computed for the heliospheric equatorial plane and at 35° heliolatitude and for both magnetic polarity cycles of the Sun. It was found that the differences between the modulation for the two solar polarity cycles are less significant at a heliolatitude of 35° than in the equatorial plane. The modulation for the different heliopause positions are qualitatively similar, although there are clear quantitative differences which should be observable with the two Voyager spacecraft in the outer heliosphere. It is illustrated that the motion of the termination shock from 90 AU to 100 AU, with the heliopause fixed at 120 AU, is not crucially important to global modulation. What is of primary importance is the location of the heliopause. It can also be concluded from the results that significant asymmetric modulation is to be expected between the up-wind and down-wind directions of the heliosphere but this may become measureable only when spacecraft move beyond the termination shock into the heliosheath. Keywords. Interplanetary physics (Cosmic rays; Heliopause and solar wind termination) ? Space plasma physics (Transport processes

Linking Demographic Effects of Habitat Fragmentation Across Landscapes to Continental Source-Sink Dynamics

Forest fragmentation may cause increased brood parasitism and nest predation of breeding birds. In North America, nest parasitism and predation are expected to increase closer to forest edges because the brood-parasitic Brown-headed Cowbird(Molothrus ater) and generalist nest predators often enter the forest from adjoining developed (largely agricultural) habitats. Yet the abundance of brood parasites and nest predators at the patch scale may be strongly constrained by the total area of developed habitat at landscape scales. The scale and extent of landscape effects are unclear, however, because past studies were mostly conducted within local landscapes rather than across independent landscapes. We report replicated studies from 30 independent landscapes across 17 states of the United States that show that nest parasitism is strongly affected by fragmentation at a 20 km radius scale, equivalent to the maximum foraging range of cowbirds. Nest predation is influenced by both edge and landscape effects, and increases with fragmentation at a 10 km radius scale. Predation is additive to parasitism mortality, and the two together yield decreased population growth potential with increasing forest fragmentation at a 10 km radius scale for 20 of 22 bird species. Mapping of population growth potential across continental landscapes displays broad impacts of fragmentation on population viability and allows geographic prioritization for conservation

Seasonal forecasting of fire over Kalimantan, Indonesia

Large-scale fires occur frequently across Indonesia, particularly in the southern region of Kalimantan and eastern Sumatra. They have considerable impacts on carbon emissions, haze production, biodiversity, health, and economic activities. In this study, we demonstrate that severe fire and haze events in Indonesia can generally be predicted months in advance using predictions of seasonal rainfall from the ECMWF System 4 coupled ocean–atmosphere model. Based on analyses of long, up-to-date series observations on burnt area, rainfall, and tree cover, we demonstrate that fire activity is negatively correlated with rainfall and is positively associated with deforestation in Indonesia. There is a contrast between the southern region of Kalimantan (high fire activity, high tree cover loss, and strong non-linear correlation between observed rainfall and fire) and the central region of Kalimantan (low fire activity, low tree cover loss, and weak, non-linear correlation between observed rainfall and fire). The ECMWF seasonal forecast provides skilled forecasts of burnt and fire-affected area with several months lead time explaining at least 70% of the variance between rainfall and burnt and fire-affected area. Results are strongly influenced by El Niño years which show a consistent positive bias. Overall, our findings point to a high potential for using a more physical-based method for predicting fires with several months lead time in the tropics rather than one based on indexes only. We argue that seasonal precipitation forecasts should be central to Indonesia’s evolving fire management policy

New Constraints from PAMELA anti-proton data on Annihilating and Decaying Dark Matter

Recently the PAMELA experiment has released its updated anti-proton flux and anti-proton to proton flux ratio data up to energies of ~200GeV. With no clear excess of cosmic ray anti-protons at high energies, one can extend constraints on the production of anti-protons from dark matter. In this letter, we consider both the cases of dark matter annihilating and decaying into standard model particles that produce significant numbers of anti-protons. We provide two sets of constraints on the annihilation cross-sections/decay lifetimes. In the one set of constraints we ignore any source of anti-protons other than dark matter, which give the highest allowed cross-sections/inverse lifetimes. In the other set we include also anti-protons produced in collisions of cosmic rays with interstellar medium nuclei, getting tighter but more realistic constraints on the annihilation cross-sections/decay lifetimes.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, 3 table

Do Characteristics of Faces That Convey Trustworthiness and Dominance Underlie Perceptions of Criminality?

BACKGROUND: This study tested whether the 2D face evaluation model proposed by Oosterhof and Todorov can parsimoniously account for why some faces are perceived as more criminal-looking than others. The 2D model proposes that trust and dominance are spontaneously evaluated from features of faces. These evaluations have adaptive significance from an evolutionary standpoint because they indicate whether someone should be approached or avoided. METHOD: Participants rated the emotional state, personality traits, and criminal appearance of faces shown in photographs. The photographs were of males and females taken under naturalistic conditions (i.e., police mugshots) and highly controlled conditions. In the controlled photographs, the emotion display of the actor was systematically varied (happy expression, emotionally neutral expression, or angry expression). RESULTS: Both male and female faces rated high in criminal appearance were perceived as less trustworthy and more dominant in police mugshots as well as in photographs taken under highly controlled conditions. Additionally, emotionally neutral faces were deemed as less trustworthy if they were perceived as angry, and more dominant if they were morphologically mature. Systematically varying emotion displays also affected criminality ratings, with angry faces perceived as the most criminal, followed by neutral faces and then happy faces. CONCLUSION: The 2D model parsimoniously accounts for criminality perceptions. This study extends past research by demonstrating that morphological features that signal high dominance and low trustworthiness can also signal high criminality. Spontaneous evaluations regarding criminal propensity may have adaptive value in that they may help us to avoid someone who is physically threatening. On the other hand, such evaluations could inappropriately influence decision making in criminal identification lineups. Hence, additional research is needed to discover whether and how people can avoid making evaluations regarding criminality from a person's facial appearance