A Long-Term Electricity Dispatch Model with the TIMES Framework

A new Swiss TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) electricity model with an hourly representation of inter-temporal detail and a century-long model horizon has been developed to explore the TIMES framework's suitability as a long-term electricity dispatch model. To understand the incremental insights from this hourly model, it is compared to an aggregated model with only two diurnal timeslices like in most MARKAL/TIMES models. Two scenarios have been analysed with both models to answer the following questions: Are there differences in model solutions? What are the benefits of having a high number of timeslices? Are there any computational limitations? The primary objective of this paper is to understand the differences between the solutions of the two models, rather than Swiss policy implication or potential uncertainties in input parameters and assumptions. The analysis reveals that the hourly model offers powerful insights into the electricity generation schedule. Nevertheless, the TIMES framework cannot substitute for a dispatch model because some features cannot be represented; however, the long model time horizon and integrated system approaches of TIMES provide features not available in conventional dispatch models. The methodology of the model development and insights from the model comparison are describe

CO2 emission mitigation and fossil fuel markets: Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies

This paper explores a multi-model scenario ensemble to assess the impacts of idealized and non-idealized climate change stabilization policies on fossil fuel markets. Under idealized conditions climate policies significantly reduce coal use in the short- and long-term. Reductions in oil and gas use are much smaller, particularly until 2030, but revenues decrease much more because oil and gas prices are higher than coal prices. A first deviation from optimal transition pathways is delayed action that relaxes global emission targets until 2030 in accordance with the Copenhagen pledges. Fossil fuel markets revert back to the no-policy case: though coal use increases strongest, revenue gains are higher for oil and gas. To balance the carbon budget over the 21st century, the long-term reallocation of fossil fuels is significantly larger—twice and more—than the short-term distortion. This amplifying effect results from coal lock-in and inter-fuel substitution effects to balance the full-century carbon budget. The second deviation from the optimal transition pathway relaxes the global participation assumption. The result here is less clear-cut across models, as we find carbon leakage effects ranging from positive to negative because trade and substitution patterns of coal, oil, and gas differ across models. In summary, distortions of fossil fuel markets resulting from relaxed short-term global emission targets are more important and less uncertain than the issue of carbon leakage from early mover action

Locked into Copenhagen pledges - Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals

This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE modeling comparison project with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Nine modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier assessments are the explicit consideration of near-term 2030 emission targets as well as the systematic sensitivity analysis for the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a 2030 mitigation effort comparable to the pledges would result in a further “lock-in” of the energy system into fossil fuels and thus impede the required energy transformation to reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450 ppm CO2e). Major implications include significant increases in mitigation costs, increased risk that low stabilization targets become unattainable, and reduced chances of staying below the proposed temperature change target of 2 °C in case of overshoot. With respect to technologies, we find that following the pledge pathways to 2030 would narrow policy choices, and increases the risks that some currently optional technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) or the large-scale deployment of bioenergy, will become “a must” by 2030

A Long-Term Electricity Dispatch Model with the TIMES Framework

ISSN:1420-2026ISSN:1573-296

Sustainable Automobile Transport

Transport, and in particular road transport, represents a significant global threat to long-term sustainable development, and is one of the fastest-growing consumers of final energy and sources of greenhouse gas emissions. In this book, long-term energyâeconomyâenvironment scenarios are used to identify the key technological developments required to address the challenges passenger car transport poses to climate change mitigation and energy security. It also considers possible targets for policy support and examines some of the elements that contribute to the significant levels of uncertainty â particularly social and political conditions. The book then builds on this long-term scenario analysis with a broad review of recent empirical examples of relevant policy implementation to identify near-term options for the passenger transportation sector which may promote a shift towards a more sustainable transport system over the longer term

Climate change scenarios and Technology Transfer Protocols

We apply a specific version of MERGE-ETL, an integrated assessment model, to study global climate policies supported by Technology Transfer Protocols (TTPs). We model a specific formulation of such a TTP where donor countries finance via carbon tax revenues, the diffusion of carbon-free technologies in developing countries (DCs) and quantify its benefits. Industrialized countries profit from increased technology exports, global diffusion of advanced technology (leading to additional technology learning and cost reductions) and reduced climate damages through the likelihood of greater global participation in a new international agreement. DCs experience increased welfare from access to subsidized technology, and profit from the reduction of damages related to climate change and expected secondary benefits of carbon abatement (such as reduced local and regional air pollution). The analysis identifies potential candidate technologies that could be supported under a TTP, and the impact of a TTP on economic development (including the flow of transfer subsidies) and global emissions. Although a TTP may encourage additional participation, such a proposal is only likely to be successful if an increased willingness to pay to avoid climate damages is accepted, first by the present and future generations of the industrialized world and later on, when sufficient economic growth is accumulated, by today's developing countries.Climate change Burden sharing Technology Transfer Protocol

Impact assessment of energy-related policy instruments on climate change and security of energy supply

Impact assessment of policy instruments is an important element of the policy development process. It represents a systematic attempt to shed light on the possible effects of policy proposals. This paper assesses the impact of two representative policy instruments, namely energy-related Demonstration and Deployment (D&D) programmes and a carbon-equivalent (C-eq) tax, on sustainability indicators in the areas of climate change and security of energy supply, two important dimensions of sustainable development. Specifically, we pay attention to the effectiveness of these policy instruments in stimulating technological change that could lead to a more secure and climate-benign global energy system in the long-term future. Although the numerical results presented here are specific to our particular analysis and highly dependent on the characteristics and limitations of our modelling tools, we offer this analysis as a contribution towards the development of more comprehensive methodologies for the assessment of impacts of policy instruments in the context of the quest towards a sustainable global energy system.impact assessment; policy instruments; climate change; security of energy supply; technological learning; energy policy; carbon-equivalent tax; demonstration and deployment programmes; sustainability indicators; sustainable development; technological change; global energy; modelling.

Population policy and environmental degradation: sources and trends in greenhouse gas emissions

The impact of population growth on the state of the environment has become a subject of vigorous public debate and has led to a number of official reports. This paper is the first systematic analysis of the implications of population growth in Australia on one of the most important environmental problems, the emission of greenhouse gases that are associated with climate change. This is especially important since Australia has signed up to international emission reduction obligations under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol