The prospects for African urban economies

Cities generally function as sources of economic development and human progress. One of the puzzles about Africa's urbanization is that it has not been accompanied by greater economic dynamism. The paper considers the distinctive development trajectory of African urban economies. It considers the applicability of the argument that cities are drivers of economic growth, and the idea that cities develop more complex, higher-value functions over time. It examines the recent revival of African economies, and asks whether the fashionable idea of enhanced international integration through cross-border collaboration might facilitate greater urban prosperity

Falling Incapacity Benefit claims in a former industrial city: policy impacts or labour market improvement?

This article provides an in-depth study of Incapacity Benefit (IB) claims in a major city and of the factors behind their changing level. It relates to the regime prior to the introduction of the Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) in 2008. Glasgow has had one of the highest levels of IB in Britain with a peak of almost one fifth of the working age population on IB or Severe Disablement Allowance (SDA). However, over the past decade the number of IB claimants in Glasgow, as in other high claiming areas, has fallen at a faster rate than elsewhere, and Glasgow now has twice the national proportion of working-age people on IB/SDA rather than its peak of three times. The rise in IB in Glasgow can be attributed primarily to deindustrialisation; between 1971 and 1991, over 100,000 manufacturing jobs were lost in the city. Policy response was belated. Lack of local statistics on IB led to a lengthy delay in official recognition of the scale of the issue, and targeted programmes to divert or return IB claimants to work did not begin on any scale until around 2004. Evidence presented in the article suggests that the reduction in claims, which has mainly occurred since about 2003, has been due more to a strengthening labour market than to national policy changes or local programmes. This gives strong support to the view that excess IB claims are a form of disguised unemployment. Further detailed evaluation of ongoing programmes is required to develop the evidence base for this complex area. However, the study casts some doubt on the need for the post-2006 round of IB reforms in high-claim areas, since rapid decline in the number of claimants was already occurring in these areas. The article also indicates the importance of close joint working between national and local agencies, and further development of local level statistics on IB claimants

Shaping educational attitudes and aspirations: the influence of parents, place and poverty: stage 1 report

An interim report of a study which aims to better understand the relationship between children’s aspirations in relation to education and employment, and the context in which they are formed. In particular, the study seeks to explore how parental circumstances and attitudes, the school as an institution, and the opportunity structures of the neighbourhood come together to shape aspirations in deprived urban areas. This report examines: • The assumptions of current policy that aspirations are a key ingredient of educational and labour market outcomes; • What aspirations are and how they can be understood; • What young people’s aspirations are for further and higher education and for future occupations in three secondary schools; • The main influences on those aspirations, including the roles of parents, schools and the neighbourhood context • Messages for the second stage of the research and emerging lessons for policy. The report provides some evidence to question the assumption among policy makers that there is a ‘poverty of aspirations’ among young people from disadvantaged backgrounds or living in disadvantaged neighbourhoods

Local Conformal Symmetry in Physics and Cosmology

We show how to lift a generic non-scale-invariant action in Einstein frame into a locally conformally invariant (or Weyl-invariant) theory and present a new general form for Lagrangians consistent with Weyl symmetry. Advantages of such a conformally invariant formulation of particle physics and gravity include the possibility of constructing geodesically complete cosmologies. We present a conformal-invariant version of the standard model coupled to gravity, and show how Weyl symmetry may be used to obtain unprecedented analytic control over its cosmological solutions. Within this new framework, generic Friedmann-Robertson-Walker cosmologies are geodesically complete through a series of big crunch-big bang transitions. We discuss a new scenario of cosmic evolution driven by the Higgs field in a “minimal” conformal standard model, in which there is no new physics beyond the standard model at low energies, and the current Higgs vacuum is metastable as indicated by the latest LHC data

Establishing the potential for using routine data on Incapacity Benefit to assess the local impact of policy initiatives

<i>Background</i>: Incapacity Benefit (IB) is the key contributory benefit for people who are incapable of work because of illness or disability. <i>Methods</i>: The aims were to establish the utility of routinely collected data for local evaluation and to provide a descriptive epidemiology of the IB population in Glasgow and Scotland for the period 2000–05 using data supplied by the Department for Work and Pensions. <i>Results</i>: Glasgow's IB population is large in absolute and relative terms but is now falling, mainly due to a decrease in on flow. Claimants, tend to be older, have a poor work history and suffer from mental health problems. The rate of decline has been greater in Glasgow than Scotland, although the rate of on flow is still higher. <i>Conclusions</i>: Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) data can be used locally to provide important insights into the dynamics of the IB population. However, to be truly useful, more work needs to be undertaken to combine the DWP data with other information

Effective Actions for Heterotic M-Theory

We discuss the moduli space approximation for heterotic M-theory, both for the minimal case of two boundary branes only, and when a bulk brane is included. The resulting effective actions may be used to describe the cosmological dynamics in the regime where the branes are moving slowly, away from singularities. We make use of the recently derived colliding branes solution to determine the global structure of moduli space, finding a boundary at which the trajectories undergo a hard wall reflection. This has important consequences for the allowed moduli space trajectories, and for the behaviour of cosmological perturbations in the model.Comment: 21 pages, 4 figures. References added and some discussions clarifie

Langevin Analysis of Eternal Inflation

It has been widely claimed that inflation is generically eternal to the future, even in models where the inflaton potential monotonically increases away from its minimum. The idea is that quantum fluctuations allow the field to jump uphill, thereby continually revitalizing the inflationary process in some regions. In this paper we investigate a simple model of this process, pertaining to inflation with a quartic potential, in which analytic progress may be made. We calculate several quantities of interest, such as the expected number of inflationary efolds, first without and then with various selection effects. With no additional weighting, the stochastic noise has little impact on the total number of inflationary efoldings even if the inflaton starts with a Planckian energy density. A "rolling" volume factor, i.e. weighting in proportion to the volume at that time, also leads to a monotonically decreasing Hubble constant and hence no eternal inflation. We show how stronger selection effects including a constraint on the initial and final states and weighting with the final volume factor can lead to a picture similar to that usually associated with eternal inflation.Comment: 22 pages, 2 figure

Bleeding changes after levonorgestrel 52-mg intrauterine system insertion for contraception in women with self-reported heavy menstrual bleeding.

BackgroundThe levonorgestrel 52-mg intrauterine system has proven efficacy for heavy menstrual bleeding treatment in clinical trials, but few data exist to demonstrate how rapidly the effects occur and the effects in women with self-reported heavy bleeding, as seen commonly in clinical practice.ObjectiveEvaluate changes in bleeding patterns in women with self-reported heavy menstrual bleeding before levonorgestrel 52-mg intrauterine system insertion.Study designA total of 1714 women aged 16-45 years old received a levonorgestrel 52-mg intrauterine system in a multicenter trial evaluating contraceptive efficacy and safety for up to 10 years. At screening, participants described their baseline menstrual bleeding patterns for the previous 3 months. Participants completed daily diaries with subjective evaluation of bleeding information for the first 2 years. For this analysis, we included women with at least 1 complete 28-day cycle of intrauterine system use and excluded women using a hormonal or copper intrauterine contraception in the month prior to study enrollment. We evaluated changes in menstrual bleeding and discontinuation for bleeding complaints per 28-day cycle over 26 cycles (2 years) in women who self-reported their baseline pattern as heavy. We also compared rates of amenorrhea, defined as no bleeding or spotting, within the entire study population in women with subjective heavy menstrual bleeding at baseline compared with those who did not complain of heavy menstrual bleeding.ResultsOf the 1513 women in this analysis, 150 (9.9%) reported baseline heavy menstrual bleeding. The majority of women reported no longer experiencing heavy menstrual bleeding by the end of cycle 1 (112/150, 74.7%) with even greater rates by cycle 2 (124/148, 83.8%). At the end of cycles 6, 13, and 26, 129 of 140 (92.1%; 95% confidence interval, 87.7%-96.6%), 114 of 123 (92.7%; 95% confidence interval, 88.1%-97.3%), and 100 of 103 (97.1%; 95% confidence interval, 93.8%-100%) women reported no heavy menstrual bleeding, respectively. After cycles 13 and 26, 63 of 123 (51.2%; 95% confidence interval, 42.4%-60.1%) and 66 of 103 (64.1%; 95% confidence interval, 54.8%-73.3%), respectively, reported their bleeding as amenorrhea or spotting only. A lower proportion of women with baseline self-reported heavy menstrual bleeding reported amenorrhea as compared with women in the overall study cohort without heavy menstrual bleeding at the end of 6 cycles (319 [25.5%] vs 21 [15.0%], P=.005) and 13 cycles (382 [34.4%] vs 26 [21.1%], P=.003); differences were not significant after 19 cycles (367 [37.2%] vs 36 [31.0%], P=.022) and 26 cycles (383 [43.5%] vs 38 [36.9%], P=.21). Only 4 (2.7%) women with baseline heavy menstrual bleeding discontinued for bleeding complaints (2 for heavy menstrual bleeding and 2 for irregular bleeding), all within the first year.ConclusionMost women who self-report heavy menstrual bleeding experience significant improvement quickly after levonorgestrel 52-mg intrauterine system insertion. Discontinuation for bleeding complaints among women with baseline heavy menstrual bleeding is very low

Towards a developmental state? Provincial economic policy in South Africa

This paper explores the meaning of the developmental state for spatial economic policy in South Africa. Two main questions are addressed: do provincial governments have a role to play in promoting economic prosperity, and to what extent do current provincial policies possess the attributes of a developmental state? These attributes are defined as the ability to plan longer term, to focus key partners on a common agenda, and to mobilise state resources to build productive capabilities. The paper argues that the developmental state must harness the power of government at every level to ensure that each part of the country develops to its potential. However, current provincial capacity is uneven, and weakest where support is needed most. Many provinces seem to have partial strategies and lack the wherewithal for sustained implementation. Coordination across government appears to be poor. The paper concludes by suggesting ways provincial policies could be strengthened

Ekpyrotic collapse with multiple fields

A scale invariant spectrum of isocurvature perturbations is generated during collapse in the scaling solution in models where two or more fields have steep negative exponential potentials. The scale invariance of the spectrum is realised by a tachyonic instability in the isocurvature field. We show that this instability is due to the fact that the scaling solution is a saddle point in the phase space. The late time attractor is identified with a single field dominated ekpyrotic collapse in which a steep blue spectrum for isocurvature perturbations is found. Although quantum fluctuations do not necessarily to disrupt the classical solution, an additional preceding stage is required to establish classical homogeneity.Comment: 13 pages, 1 figur