Linear optimization of forest management for dynamic recursive model

Our study presents development of a forest management model based on LP which can be easily integrated into a large-scale dynamic recursive model and contain the instruments providing future consideration for harvesting plans under recursive limitations. We introduce a general structure and simulation algorithm of the model. The forest management algorithm was tested applying historical data of Ukrainian forests. Obtained modeling results demonstrate a correct age class transition. They prove as well adequacy of utilizing benefit losses and delay costs as regulative mechanisms for temporal allocation of forest harvesting. As far as statistic data concerning age structure of Ukrainian forests are not publicly available, FesT was validated by comparing projected forest age structure with results of Global Forest Model (G4M).The comparison shows that the projections of both models are fairly close to each other. The divergence between the results can be explained by difference in forest management modelling approach

Land-use impacts of Brazilian wind power expansion

While wind power is a low-carbon renewable energy technology with relatively little land footprint, the necessary infrastructure expansion still has land-related environmental impacts. Brazil has seen more than a ten-fold increase in wind power capacity in the last decade. However, little is known about these impacts of wind power generation in Brazil compared to other world regions, although Brazilian wind power infrastructure is concentrated in the least protected ecosystems that are prone to degradation, desertification and species extinction. This study focuses on land-use impacts of past wind power generation development in four Brazilian federal states, covering 80% of the country's installed capacity. We assessed their spatial installation patterns, associated land-use and land cover change in the period before installation until 2018, and potential alternative installation locations, using a detailed wind turbine location database in combination with a high-resolution land-use and land cover map. In contrast to wind parks built in Europe, we found that 62% of the studied wind park area was covered by native vegetation and coastal sands. Overall, 3.2% of the total wind cluster area was converted from native vegetation to anthropogenic use. Wind parks installed mainly on native vegetation, on average, underwent higher land-use change compared to other wind parks. As Brazil intends to more than double its current wind power capacities by 2029, we explored possibilities to reduce environmental risks due to wind power expansion. We showed that this is feasible by integrating wind parks into human-altered areas, as sufficient wind resources there are available

Pathway to a land-neutral expansion of Brazilian renewable fuel production

Biofuels are currently the only available bulk renewable fuel. They have, however, limited expansion potential due to high land requirements and associated risks for biodiversity, food security, and land conflicts. We therefore propose to increase output from ethanol refineries in a land-neutral methanol pathway: surplus CO2-streams from fermentation are combined with H2 from renewably powered electrolysis to synthesize methanol. We illustrate this pathway with the Brazilian sugarcane ethanol industry using a spatio-temporal model. The fuel output of existing ethanol generation facilities can be increased by 43%–49% or ~100 TWh without using additional land. This amount is sufficient to cover projected growth in Brazilian biofuel demand in 2030. We identify a trade-off between renewable energy generation technologies: wind power requires the least amount of land whereas a mix of wind and solar costs the least. In the cheapest scenario, green methanol is competitive to fossil methanol at an average carbon price of 95€ tCO2−1

A new perspective on global renewable energy systems: why trade in energy carriers matters

Recent global modelling studies suggest a decline of long-distance trade in energy carriers in future global renewable energy systems, compared to today's fossil fuel based system. In contrast, we identify four drivers that facilitate trade of renewable energy carriers. These drivers may lead to trade volumes remaining at current levels or even to an increase during the transition to an energy system with very high shares of renewables. First, new land-efficient technologies for renewable fuel production become increasingly available and technically allow for long-distance trade in renewables. Second, regional differences in social acceptance and land availability for energy infrastructure support the development of renewable fuel import and export streams. Third, the economics of renewable energy systems, i.e. the different production conditions globally and the high costs of fully renewable regional electricity systems, will create opportunities for spatial arbitrage. Fourth, a reduction of stranded investments in the fossil fuel sector is possible by switching from fossil fuels to renewable fuel trade. The impact of these drivers on trade in renewable energy carriers is currently under-investigated by the global energy systems research community. The importance of the topic, in particular as trade can redistribute profits and losses of decarbonization and may hence support finding new partners in climate change mitigation negotiations, warrants further research efforts in this area therefore

High-resolution large-scale onshore wind energy assessments: A review of potential definitions, methodologies and future research needs

The rapid uptake of renewable energy technologies in recent decades has increased the demand of energy researchers, policymakers and energy planners for reliable data on the spatial distribution of their costs and potentials. For onshore wind energy this has resulted in an active research field devoted to analysing these resources for regions, countries or globally. A particular thread of this research attempts to go beyond purely technical or spatial restrictions and determine the realistic, feasible or actual potential for wind energy. Motivated by these developments, this paper reviews methods and assumptions for analysing geographical, technical, economic and, finally, feasible onshore wind potentials. We address each of these potentials in turn, including aspects related to land eligibility criteria, energy meteorology, and technical developments of wind turbine characteristics such as power density, specific rotor power and spacing aspects. Economic aspects of potential assessments are central to future deployment and are discussed on a turbine and system level covering levelized costs depending on locations, and the system integration costs which are often overlooked in such analyses. Non-technical approaches include scenicness assessments of the landscape, constraints due to regulation or public opposition, expert and stakeholder workshops, willingness to pay/accept elicitations and socioeconomic cost-benefit studies. For each of these different potential estimations, the state of the art is critically discussed, with an attempt to derive best practice recommendations and highlight avenues for future research

Greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios for major emitting countries – Analysis of current climate policies and mitigation commitments: 2018 update

This report by NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 25 major emitting countries/regions up to 2030, taking into account the emission trajectories based on current policies and the implementation of nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The report concludes that 16 out of the 25 countries and regions analysed are not on track to achieve the NDC targets they have set for themselves. This report updates the 2017 report

A conceptual scheme for modelling forestry and LUC CO2 emissions in Ukraine

A number of global land-use change and forest management models for studying CO2 emissions in land-use change and forestry, in particular: G4M, GLOBIOM, Land-SHIFT, GTM and GCOMAP are considered. The main issues and features of forestry in Ukraine (e.g. illegal forest harvesting, lack of reliable and consistent data on forestry, difference between concepts of Ukrainian and international legislation in forestry) are analyzed. A conceptual scheme for modelling forestry and land-use CO2 emissions in Ukraine is developed

Assessment of efficiency of a policy on reduction of CO2 emissions in Ukrainian forests for three socio-economic scenarios

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector is one of the main reasons why conventional energy sources are being replaced by renewables. Obviously, changes of state's energy balance will affect energy sector as well as contiguous sectors of economy. We consider the issues of utilizing the renewables, in particular wood biomass in order to observe the impact on CO2 emissions changes in forestry and efficiency of implementation of emission reduction policies. It is necessary to find reasons and possible ways for changing the amount of utilized wood biomass as the primary energy source. We developed three socio-economic scenarios to project possible directions of energy policy and economy development considering utilizing renewables and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. We evaluate carbon dioxide emissions in forestry sector for the scenarios applying Global Forest Model (G4M) which was adopted for Ukraine. Scenario A (initial). We assume that there are no significant changes in the law which can impact the amount of utilized renewables. Increase of biomass energy usage is slow and it is based on local incentives. Harmonization of Ukrainian legislation with EU directives towards environment protection is low. Carbon tax remains unchanged - 0.26 UAH per ton of carbon dioxide. Scenario B (optimistic). Adopted legislative incentives will obtain encouraging conditions for utilizng renewables (improved "green tariff" for heat and electricity). The new goals for utilizing different energy sources will be set up as well. In paricular, the share of renewables in Energy Balance of Ukraine will increase due to proposed level of the new project of Energy Strategy of Ukraine till 2035. Carbontax may be increased. Scenario D (agricultural). Development of agricultural sector of Ukrainian economy is a priority for the state. Therefore, production and export of agricultural commodities will increase. However, legislative incentives will target agricultural sector as well as energy sector, in particular increasing utilizing renewables (improved "green tariff" for heat and electricity). Carbon tax may be increased. According to simulation results of G4M we can conclude that increasing of wood demand drives its production and reduces forest carbon sequestration. In particular, in 2030 with zero carbon price for Scenario A carbon sequestration is 4.76 MtCO2/year and for Scenario B sequestration is reduced to 1.19 MtCO2/year due to high wood demand. Reducing CO2 emissions in the energy sector by utilizing wood biomass causes reduction of carbon sequestration by forests. However, increasing the carbon taxes can cause increasing of carbon sequestration. Scenario B is the most sensitive to carbon taxes, additional sequestration can reach 7.2 MtCO2/year while in Scenario A it is not larger than 3.7 MtCO2year at 2030. Increased carbon taxes force forest owners to sequester the carbon. In order to minimize negative effect of increasing wood production, it is reasonable to intensify forest management at the same time with increasing carbon taxes. Estimation of more accurate optimal carbon price requires additional studies