17 research outputs found

    Assessing Agricultural Drought Vulnerability by a VSD Model: A Case Study in Yunnan Province, China

    No full text
    Drought vulnerability of agriculture is significant to economic development and sustainable food production. In this paper, we proposed a framework to evaluate the regional agricultural-eco environment in the face of drought caused by climate change. Based on a vulnerability scoping diagram (VSD) model, we built up a comprehensive system to evaluate the agricultural drought vulnerability of Yunnan Province in China. The model highlights the human-land relationship by considering both natural conditions and human activities. Twelve indicators were generated to construct three components of the model: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. During the construction of the VSD model, the entropy and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) comprehensive analysis method were adopted to generate the weights and to compute the composite index for each section. Furthermore, the factor analysis method was used to determine the dominant factors of different cities and the main indicators driving the system. The results indicated a spatial pattern that the vulnerability value was high on the eastern and western sides, but low in the middle of Yunnan Province. Most of the vulnerable regions were concentrated in remote areas. Indicators such as population density, irrigation level, annual average precipitation, cultivation land ratio, and difficulty of water supply were the main driving factors. This means that there is a deep connection between agricultural drought vulnerability and urbanization. The evaluation system developed during this research will provide guidance for drought mitigation in regions of complex terrain

    A predictive model combining clinical characteristics and nutritional risk factors for overall survival after umbilical cord blood transplantation

    No full text
    Abstract Background Umbilical cord blood transplantation (UCBT) is a curable therapy for hematological disease; however, the impact of nutritional status on UCBT outcomes remains controversial. To evaluate the joint effect of clinical characteristics and nutritional status on the prognosis of patients who underwent UCBT, we screened various factors to establish a predictive model of overall survival (OS) after UCBT. Methods We performed an integrated clinical characteristic and nutritional risk factor analysis and established a predictive model that could be used to identify UCBT recipients with poor OS. Internal validation was performed by using the bootstrap method with 500 repetitions. Results Four factors, including disease status, conditioning regimen, calf skinfold thickness and albumin level, were identified and used to develop a risk score for OS, which showed a positive predictive value of 84.0%. A high-risk score (ā‰„ā€‰2.225) was associated with inferior 3-year OS post-UCBT [67.5% (95% CI 51.1ā€“79.4%), Pā€‰=ā€‰0.001]. Then, we built a nomogram based on the four factors that showed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.833 (95% CI 0.743ā€“0.922). The optimism-corrected C-index value of the bootstrapping was 0.804. Multivariate analysis suggested that a high calf skinfold thickness (ā‰„ā€‰20.5Ā mm) and a low albumin level (<ā€‰33.6Ā g/L) conferred poor disease-free survival (DFS). Conclusion The predictive model combining clinical and nutritional factors could be used to predict OS in UCBT recipients, thereby promoting preemptive treatment
    corecore