GENERAL POPULATION PROJECTION MODEL WITH CENSUS POPULATION DATA

The US Census Bureau offers a wide range of data, and within this array, the American Community Survey 5-Year Estimate (ACS5) serves as a valuable resource for understanding the US population. This project embarks on an exploration of Machine Learning and the Software Development process with the goal of generating effective population projections from ACS5 data. The project aims to provide methods to make predictions for every city and town in the US, encompassing their total population and population divided into 5-year age groups. It\u27s worth noting that while the generation of these projections is grounded in the generalized statistical likelihood computed by the machine learning models, there remains an expected margin of error for each prediction. To effectively convey this margin of error alongside the series of predictions, the project leverages a technique known as conformal prediction, which delivers the error range in the form of conformalized quantile regression. The modeling process encompasses a variety of approaches, including both Statistical Machine Learning Models and Deep Learning Models. The ultimate results take the form of visualizations, comprising combined plots featuring selected statistics for specific cities and towns within the County of Riverside, serving as the test dataset. These final machine learning models successfully yield persuasive population growth projection curves

Accounting for Persistence and Volatility of Good-level Real Exchange Rates: The Role of Sticky Information

Volatile and persistent real exchange rates are observed not only in aggregate series but also in the individual good level data. Kehoe and Midrigan (2007) recently showed that, under a standard assumption on nominal price stickiness, empirical frequencies of micro price adjustment cannot replicate the time-series properties of the law- of-one-price deviations. We extend their sticky price model by combining good specific price adjustment with information stickiness in the sense of Mankiw and Reis (2002). Under a reasonable assumption on the money growth process, we show that the model fully explains both persistence and volatility of the good-level real exchange rates. Furthermore, our framework allows for multiple cities within a country. Using a panel of U.S.- Canadian city pairs, we estimate a dynamic price adjustment process for each 165 individual goods. The empirical result suggests that the dispersion of average time of information update across goods is comparable to that of average time of price adjustment.Good-level Real Exchange Rates, Law of One Price, Sticky Information, Dynamic Panel

Noisy Information, Distance and Law of One Price Dynamics Across US Cities

Using micro price data across US cities, we provide evidence that both the volatility and persistence of deviations from the law of one price (LOP) are positively correlated with the distance between cities. A standard, two-city, equilibrium model with time-varying technology under homogeneous information can predict the relationship between the volatility and distance but not between the persistence and distance. To account for the latter fact, we augment the standard model with noisy signals about the state of nominal aggregate demand that are asymmetric across cities. We further establish that the interaction of imperfect information and sticky prices improves the fit of the model.

Hump-shaped Behavior of Inflation and Dynamic Externality

This paper develops a model which can explain the hump-shaped impulse response of inflation to a monetary shock. A standard New Keynesian (NK) model is augmented so as to include dynamic externality with sticky wages and variable capital utilization. In our analysis, we assume purely forward-looking nominal rigidities in nominal prices and wages a la Calvo(1983). Nevertheless, we can show that inflation is hump-shaped under a reasonable range of parameters. It will be also shown that, in order for inflation to be hump-shaped, sticky wages and variable capital utilization are important as well as dynamic externalities.Inflation; New Keynesian Phillips curve; Sticky-price model; Sticky wages; Variable capital utilization; Dynamic Externality

<ORIGINAL ARTICLE>Tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase activity induced by pre-incubation with tartrate in mouse embryonic mandibles

The present study used mouse embryonic mandibles to examine the characteristics of tartrate in tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase (TR-ACPase) histochemistry. Short-term incubation (30 min) in substrate-containing reaction medium showed intense and specific activity of TR-ACPase only in a small number of mononuclear cells, presumably pre-osteoclasts, present around a population of differentiating osteoblasts. Pre-incubation with tartrate and subsequent incubation of reaction medium resulted in slightly increased intensity in the preosteoclasts and also weak enzyme activity in other cells such as oral and dental epithelia, osteoblasts, and chondrocytes of Meckel\u27s cartilage. Pre-incubation with tartrate and subsequent incubation with reaction medium may result in overestimation of the histochemical products. Therefore short-term incubation is important to estimate the enzyme activity exactly in TR-ACPase histochemistry. especially in osteoblasts

Recent advances in deuterium permeation induced transmutation experiments using nano-structured Pd/CaO/Pd multilayer thin film

Permeation induced transmutation reactions, which we originally found in the nanostructured Pd multilayer film composed of Pd and CaO thin film and Pd substrate, have been observed in our laboratory and other research institutes. Recently, Toyota R&D centre reported almost complete replication experiments on the transmutation of Cs into Pr at ICCF-17. We observed transmutation reactions of Cs into Pr, Ba into Sm, W into Pt up to now. Especially, transmutation of Cs into Pr has been confirmed by "in-situ" measurements using x-ray fluorescence spectrometry (XRF) at SPring-8 in Japan. Experimental data that indicates the presence of transmutation have been accumulated and the underlying mechanism for inducing low energy transmutation reactions is gradually becoming clear, although systematic experimental study is still insufficient. The permeation induced transmutation technology would be expected as an innovative nuclear transmutation method for radioactive waste and a new energy source if we would be able to increase the amount of transmutation products. We have been trying to increase the amount of transmutation products these years for the practical application. The following factors are assumed to be important for inducing deuterium permeation transmutation. 1) Local Deuteron Density 2) Electronic Structure Based on this assumption, we applied an electrochemical method to increase the local deuteron density near the surface of the nano-structured Pd multilayer film. We also tried to increase the transmutation products by changing surface electronic state. These recent experimental methods gave us increased transmutation products, gamma-ray emissions, and new implications on Deuterium Permeation Induced Transmutation

How well do the sticky price models explain the disaggregated price responses to aggregate technology and monetary policy shocks?

This paper documents empirically and analyzes theoretically the responses of disaggregated prices to aggregate technology and monetary policy shocks. Based on the price data of US personal consumption expenditure, we find that disaggregated price responses have features across shocks and across sectors that are difficult to explain using standard multi-sector sticky price models. In terms of shocks, a substantial fraction of disaggregated prices initially rise in response to a contractionary monetary policy shock, while most prices fall immediately in response to an aggregate technological improvement. In terms of sectors, the disaggregated price responses are correlated weakly with the frequency of price changes. To reconcile these observations, we extend the standard model. We find that the cost channel of monetary policy and cross-sectional heterogeneity in real rigidity are possible avenues in accounting for these facts.Disaggregated Prices, Technology Shocks, Monetary Policy Shocks, Sticky Price Models