Forecasting airport passenger traffic: the case of Hong Kong International Airport

Hong Kong International Airport is one of the main gateways to Mainland China and the major aviation hub in Asia. An accurate airport traffic demand forecast allows for short and long-term planning and decision making regarding airport facilities and flight networks. This paper employs the Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methodology to build and estimate the univariate seasonal ARIMA model and the ARIMX model with explanatory variables for forecasting airport passenger traffic for Hong Kong, and projecting its future growth trend from 2011to 2015. Both fitted models are found to have the lower Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) figures, and then the models are used to obtain ex-post forecasts with accurate forecasting results. More importantly, both ARIMA models predict a growth in future airport passenger traffic at Hong Kong

Entry patterns of low‐cost carriers in Hong Kong and implications to the regional market

This study aims to provide a better understanding of Asia’s lowcost carriers (LCCs) by empirically analysing their route entry patterns in Hong Kong. Two alternative models have been tested, namely a standard probit model and a generalized least squares estimation. Consistent findings from the two models suggest that LCCs in Asia have a clear preference for high density routes, and the dominance of incumbent full service airlines (FSAs) and the lack of secondary airports are not critical to the growth of LCCs. However, government regulations and airport access are main impediment factors. Despite the adoption of long-distance lowcost models by the region’s airlines, geographic distance still plays an important role in LCCs’ entry decisions. For the growth of low-cost travel and associated benefits in the tourism industry and overall economy, it is important for governments in the region to liberalize aviation markets, provide sufficient airport capacity, and promote efficient allocation of airport slots

Investigating Hong Kong's role as the main air transport hub in the Asia-Pacific region : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctorate of Philosophy in Aviation at Massey University, Manawatu Campus, New Zealand

Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) has experienced growth in air traffic volumes since its opening in 1998, and has established itself as one of the main international hub airports in the Asia-Pacific region and China’s primary gateway. However, it is concerned about losing this position due to increased competition from alternative international gateway hub airports in Mainland China and around the Asia-Pacific region. In particular, HKIA’s growth in passenger numbers started to show a declining trend and was smaller relative to other regional airports. The objective of this research was to investigate HKIA’s relative operational efficiency and network position and forecast its ability to maintain its role as the main air transport hub in the Asia-Pacific region and the primary passenger gateway to Mainland China. The research in this thesis undertook three separate but related empirical studies to answer several questions that contribute to addressing the overall research objective. The first study used Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to assess the operational efficiency of HKIA compared to other major Asia-Pacific airports. HKIA was found to reside on the efficiency frontier as one of the most efficient airports in the Asia-Pacific region. In the second study, the NetScan Connectivity Units (CNU) model measured and compared the direct, indirect, and hub connectivity of the major Asia-Pacific airports. HKIA was found to have a competitive position offering larger direct and hub connectivity to other international regions relative to other airports. Furthermore, the market share analysis showed that HKIA maintained its role as China’s primary passenger gateway handling a significant share of China’s inbound international visitors from several regions around the world. In the third study, the Box-Jenkins Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and ARIMAX models were modelled to forecast Hong Kong airport’s future passenger throughput, and its future passenger throughput were projected to grow. The findings of the research suggested that HKIA has maintained its position as the main air transport hub in the Asia-Pacific region and China’s primary passenger gateway with the support of efficient operations and competitive international flight connectivity networks. Given that HKIA maintains this relative position, its airport passenger throughput is forecasted to grow in the future

Forecasting of Hong Kong airport\u27s passenger throughput

Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) is one of the main gateways to Mainland China and the major aviation hub in Asia. An accurate airport traffic demand forecast allows for short and long-term planning and decision making regarding airport facilities and flight networks. This paper employs the Box–Jenkins Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model and the ARIMAX model to forecast airport passenger traffic for Hong Kong, and projecting its future growth trend to 2015. Both models predict a steady growth in future airport passenger traffic at Hong Kong. In addition, scenario analysis suggests that Hong Kong airport\u27s future passenger traffic will continue to grow in different magnitudes

Compound Brands and the Multi-Creation of Brand Associations: Evidence from Airports and Shopping Malls

The authors identify a new type of brand concept, which they term as a compound brand. Compound brands have their brand associations multi-created such that the focal brand entity, their tenants, and ancillary entities all act as sources of primary brand associations. To test the possibility of compound brands, two potential compound brands are studied, airports and shopping malls. This was completed by undertaking 480 semi-structured interviews (240 for each entity) to identify the underlying brand association structure and which associations are important for consumer brand choice. Thematic analysis was used to analyse the qualitative data. Participant responses support that compound brand association structures are created by the focal branded entity (e.g., an airport), its tenants (e.g., shops and restaurants), as well as ancillary entities (e.g., location and customers). The contributions of tenants and ancillary entities towards the brand association structures of airports and shopping malls were also statistically significant with large effect sizes. A continuum exists as to how much of the compound brand’s association structure is created by its tenants, with statistically significant differences between airports and shopping malls in terms of how much tenants contribute to overall brand association structures for the compound brand

New Zealand business tourism: Exploring the impact of economic policy uncertainties

Business tourism has brought significant benefits to New Zealand’s tourism industry and economy. This study aims to provide a better understanding of the impact of economic uncertainty on New Zealand’s business tourism. The panel data gravity model and the maximally correlated portfolio are used to investigate the impacts of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices of New Zealand and its key trading partners, along with tourism and aviation-related factors, on New Zealand’s business tourist flows from 2008 to 2015. The findings suggest that two economic factors (New Zealand’s EPU index and bilateral trade volumes) and two noneconomic factors (flying distance and total direct flight seats) are statistically significant in explaining some of the variations in business tourism flows. The results have important policy implications for New Zealand’s policymakers in understanding business visitor demands and planning their tourism strategies. </jats:p