Non-homogenous Poisson Process for Evaluating Stage I & II Ductal Breast Cancer Treatment

Non-Homogenous Poisson Process (NHPP), also known as the Power Law process (PLP) or the Weibull Process, is used to evaluate the effectiveness of a given treatment for Stage I & II ductal breast cancer patients. The behavior of the shape parameter of the intensity function is examined to evaluate the response of a given treatment with respect to its effectiveness for a cancer subject

Markov Modeling of Breast Cancer

Previous work with respect to the treatments and relapse time for breast cancer patients is extended by applying a Markov chain to model three different types of breast cancer patients: alive without ever having relapse, alive with relapse, and deceased. It is shown that combined treatment of tamoxifen and radiation is more effective than single treatment of tamoxifen in preventing the recurrence of breast cancer. However, if the patient has already relapsed from breast cancer, single treatment of tamoxifen would be more appropriate with respect to survival time after relapse. Transition probabilities between three stages during different time periods, 2-year, 4-year, 5-year, and 10-year, are also calculated to provide information on how likely one stage moves to another stage within a specific time period

Predicting Survival Time of Localized Melanoma Patients Using Discrete Survival Time Method

Melanoma is the most fatal type of skin cancer. It is ranked first in death of skin cancer diseases. This study establishes a statistical model that can predict the survival time of localized melanoma patients, as a function of age at diagnosis, tumor thickness, and extension of the tumor (tumor invasion). The discrete time survival method was used to build the statistical model. The patients involved in the current study were observed from the SEER database. Patients were divided into nine groups according to age at diagnosis. Variation in survival time was found to be significant among some of the age groups

A Weighted Moving Average Process for Forecasting

The object of the present study is to propose a forecasting model for a nonstationary stochastic realization. The subject model is based on modifying a given time series into a new k-time moving average time series to begin the development of the model. The study is based on the autoregressive integrated moving average process along with its analytical constrains. The analytical procedure of the proposed model is given. A stock XYZ selected from the Fortune 500 list of companies and its daily closing price constitute the time series. Both the classical and proposed forecasting models were developed and a comparison of the accuracy of their responses is given

A Weighted Moving Average Process for Forcasting

A forecasting model for a nonstationary stochastic realization is proposed based on modifying a given time series into a new k-time moving average time series. The study is based on the autoregressive integrated moving average process along with its analytical constrains. The analytical procedure of the proposed model is given. A stock XYZ selected from the Fortune 500 list of companies and its daily closing price constitute the time series. Both the classical and proposed forecasting models were developed and a comparison of the accuracy of their responses is given

Application of the Truncated Skew Laplace Probability Distribution in Maintenance System

A random variable X is said to have the skew-Laplace probability distribution if its pdf is given by f(x) = 2g(x)G(λx), where g (.) and G (.), respectively, denote the pdf and the cdf of the Laplace distribution. When the skew Laplace distribution is truncated on the left at 0 it is called it the truncated skew Laplace (TSL) distribution. This article provides a comparison of TSL distribution with twoparameter gamma model and the hypoexponential model, and an application of the subject model in maintenance system is studied

Regularized Neural Network to Identify Potential Breast Cancer: A Bayesian Approach

In the current study, we have exemplified the use of Bayesian neural networks for breast cancer classification using the evidence procedure. The optimal Bayesian network has 81% overall accuracy in correctly classifying the true status of breast cancer patients, 59% sensitivity in correctly detecting the malignancy and 83% specificity in correctly detecting the non-malignancy. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.7940) shows that this is a moderate classification model

Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Model of Lung Cancer Mortality

Background The objective of this study was to analyze the time trend for lung cancer mortality in the population of the USA by 5 years based on most recent available data namely to 2010. The knowledge of the mortality rates in the temporal trends is necessary to understand cancer burden.Methods Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was fitted using Poisson regression with histogram smoothing prior to decompose mortality rates based on age at death, period at death, and birth-cohort.Results Mortality rates from lung cancer increased more rapidly from age 52 years. It ended up to 325 deaths annually for 82 years on average. The mortality of younger cohorts was lower than older cohorts. The risk of lung cancer was lowered from period 1993 to recent periods.Conclusions The fitted Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model with histogram smoothing prior is capable of explaining mortality rate of lung cancer. The reduction in carcinogens in cigarettes and increase in smoking cessation from around 1960 might led to decreasing trend of lung cancer mortality after calendar period 1993