Development of Hesitant Fuzzy-Based Project Selection Method with Consideration of Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks

PT X, a power generation company, hasn’t been able to meet their target in the business development segment over the past few years. This is due to a problem detected in their Project Portfolio Management, in which PT X’s project selection method hasn’t considered the ambiguity nature of project’s information and risks. This study is going to develop a project selection method for PT X using MCDM (multi criteria decision making) with BOCR (benefit, opportunity, cost, risk) Concept to evaluate many criteria that need to be considered by the company, especially conflicting criteria such as benefit with cost and opportunity with risk. Not only that, hesitant fuzzy will be used because project itself has many uncertain or ambiguous information, so stakeholder will face difficulties in determining the value for the evaluation. From the integration of those things in this study, it is found that for PT X, Benefit has the biggest priority, followed by Opportunity, Risk, and Cost in Project Selection for PT X. It is also found that based on additive-BOCR, Project C gives the optimal value for PT X, followed by Project B, Project A, Project D, dan Project E.

Pengembangan Metode Pemilihan Proyek Pembangkit Tenaga Listrik Berbasis Hesitant Fuzzy Dengan Pertimbangan Benefits, Opportunities, Costs Dan Risks Untuk PT X

PT X, sebuah perusahaan pembangkitan tenaga listrik di Indonesia, melakukan pengembangan usaha untuk menghadapi kompetisi. Meskipun begitu, PT X belum pernah mencapai target yang ditentukan selama beberapa tahun terakhir. Hal tersebut dikarenakan adanya masalah pada Manajemen Portfolio Proyek PT X, di mana metode pemilihan proyek PT X belum mempertimbangkan ketidakpastian atau ambiguitas informasi dan risiko proyek, serta pandangan seluruh manajemen perusahaan terkait pengembangan usaha PT X. Penelitian ini akan mengembangkan metode pemilihan proyek PT X dengan menggunakan MCDM (multi criteria decision making) dengan Konsep BOCR (benefit, opportunity, cost, risk) untuk dapat mengevaluasi kriteria yang perlu dipertimbangkan oleh perusahaan, terutama kriteria yang saling bertolak belakang seperti manfaat dengan biaya, serta peluang dengan risiko. Selain itu, hesitant fuzzy akan digunakan dikarenakan proyek memiliki banyak informasi yang tidak pasti dan ambigu, sehingga stakeholder mengalami kesulitan dalam menentukan nilai evaluasi dengan optimal. Dengan integrasi dari hal-hal tersebut, diidentifikasi bahwa Manfaat (33.127%) memiliki prioritas paling besar, disusul dengan Peluang (23.930%), Risiko (22.054%), dan Biaya (20.889%) dalam Pemilihan Proyek PT X. Didapatkan pula bahwa berdasarkan nilai negative additive-BOCR, Proyek C (0.039) memberikan hasil optimal, disusul dengan Proyek B (0.032), Proyek A (0.026), Proyek D (0.023), dan Proyek E (0.021). ========================================================= In order to improve a decision quality process of project evaluation at a company of PT X, this model is developed. The practices of Project Porto folio Management at the company have not taken yet the ambiguity nature’s project information and risk as well as its opinion judgment regarding the performance business development of the company. Consequently, it was found that the performance of the company over past few years before had not been able to achieve planned target due to incomplete decision factors of project selection regarding of company business development. Project selection process should take into account all its decisive factors in order to have a good decision and best solution, in doing so a qualitative and quantitative criterion as well ambiguity and risk information are important to consider in process decision making. This study aims to develop a project selection model based on MCDM (multi criteria decision making) and BOCR (benefit, opportunity, cost, risk). This model consists of development to conceptualize of evaluating criteria especially conflicting criteria such as benefit with cost and opportunity with risk. To do so, Hesitant Fuzzy concept is proposed to represent many uncertain or ambiguous information regarding projects, in order to facility the stakeholders and decision maker to determine an exact value for their evaluation, this research develop a new model that is an integration of MCDM, BOCR, and hesitant fuzzy. Based on implementation of model to project folio selection at the PT X, it is found that factors preferences are weighted for project selection subsequently Benefit (33.127%) which has the biggest priority, followed by Opportunity (23.930%), Risk (22.054%), and Cost (20.889%). Considering 5 alternative projects to be evaluation, projects selected based on implementation of model developed-negative additive-BOCR subsequently are Project C of 0.039 value as the best optional project for the company, followed by Project B (0.032), Project A (0.026), Project D (0.023), dan Project E (0.021)