An integrated statistical model of Emergency Department length of stay informed by Resilient Health Care principles

Background Hospital Emergency Departments (EDs) face variable demand and capacity issues affecting timely discharge of patients. This is due in part to a lack of integration of routine monitoring data, affecting anticipation and response. Methods Patient flow was modelled (four hour target breaches; time to decision-to-admit; subsequent time to admit-to-hospital) in a busy ED. Patient and organisational data were collated, screened and conceptualised using Resilient Health Care (RHC) theory. Data were collected for all patients presenting during a 24-month period (May 2014–April 2016; n = 232,920) and analysed via multivariable logistic regression for four hour target breaches, and ordinary least squares regression for time. A measure of effect size was calculated for each independent variable. Overall model fit was assessed using percent concordant. Results Length of stay is related to demand, capacity and process indicators including: number of patients; night shift; first location being resuscitation or major injury area(s); urgent or very urgent triage patients; patients readmitting from up to 7 days previous; bed capacity; recent ambulance arrivals; and patients where the primary presenting complaint (PPC) is related to mental health or difficult to ascertain. Conclusions Understanding variation in performance through RHC theory can support staff and organisations in monitoring, anticipating and responding. A set of reliable core predictors has been identified to help design future ways to facilitate resilient performance through early indicators of pressure

International evaluation of an AI system for breast cancer screening.

Screening mammography aims to identify breast cancer at earlier stages of the disease, when treatment can be more successful1. Despite the existence of screening programmes worldwide, the interpretation of mammograms is affected by high rates of false positives and false negatives2. Here we present an artificial intelligence (AI) system that is capable of surpassing human experts in breast cancer prediction. To assess its performance in the clinical setting, we curated a large representative dataset from the UK and a large enriched dataset from the USA. We show an absolute reduction of 5.7% and 1.2% (USA and UK) in false positives and 9.4% and 2.7% in false negatives. We provide evidence of the ability of the system to generalize from the UK to the USA. In an independent study of six radiologists, the AI system outperformed all of the human readers: the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) for the AI system was greater than the AUC-ROC for the average radiologist by an absolute margin of 11.5%. We ran a simulation in which the AI system participated in the double-reading process that is used in the UK, and found that the AI system maintained non-inferior performance and reduced the workload of the second reader by 88%. This robust assessment of the AI system paves the way for clinical trials to improve the accuracy and efficiency of breast cancer screening.Professor Fiona Gilbert receives funding from the National Institute for Health Research (Senior Investigator award)

Game Plan: What AI can do for Football, and What Football can do for AI

The rapid progress in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning has opened unprecedented analytics possibilities in various team and individual sports, including baseball, basketball, and tennis. More recently, AI techniques have been applied to football, due to a huge increase in data collection by professional teams, increased computational power, and advances in machine learning, with the goal of better addressing new scientific challenges involved in the analysis of both individual players' and coordinated teams' behaviors. The research challenges associated with predictive and prescriptive football analytics require new developments and progress at the intersection of statistical learning, game theory, and computer vision. In this paper, we provide an overarching perspective highlighting how the combination of these fields, in particular, forms a unique microcosm for AI research, while offering mutual benefits for professional teams, spectators, and broadcasters in the years to come. We illustrate that this duality makes football analytics a game changer of tremendous value, in terms of not only changing the game of football itself, but also in terms of what this domain can mean for the field of AI. We review the state-of-the-art and exemplify the types of analysis enabled by combining the aforementioned fields, including illustrative examples of counterfactual analysis using predictive models, and the combination of game-theoretic analysis of penalty kicks with statistical learning of player attributes. We conclude by highlighting envisioned downstream impacts, including possibilities for extensions to other sports (real and virtual)

Low exposure long-baseline neutrino oscillation sensitivity of the DUNE experiment

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) will produce world-leading neutrino oscillation measurements over the lifetime of the experiment. In this work, we explore DUNE's sensitivity to observe charge-parity violation (CPV) in the neutrino sector, and to resolve the mass ordering, for exposures of up to 100 kiloton-megawatt-years (kt-MW-yr). The analysis includes detailed uncertainties on the flux prediction, the neutrino interaction model, and detector effects. We demonstrate that DUNE will be able to unambiguously resolve the neutrino mass ordering at a 3$\sigma$ (5$\sigma$) level, with a 66 (100) kt-MW-yr far detector exposure, and has the ability to make strong statements at significantly shorter exposures depending on the true value of other oscillation parameters. We also show that DUNE has the potential to make a robust measurement of CPV at a 3$\sigma$ level with a 100 kt-MW-yr exposure for the maximally CP-violating values \delta_{\rm CP}} = \pm\pi/2. Additionally, the dependence of DUNE's sensitivity on the exposure taken in neutrino-enhanced and antineutrino-enhanced running is discussed. An equal fraction of exposure taken in each beam mode is found to be close to optimal when considered over the entire space of interest

The DUNE Far Detector Interim Design Report, Volume 3: Dual-Phase Module

The DUNE IDR describes the proposed physics program and technical designs of the DUNE far detector modules in preparation for the full TDR to be published in 2019. It is intended as an intermediate milestone on the path to a full TDR, justifying the technical choices that flow down from the high-level physics goals through requirements at all levels of the Project. These design choices will enable the DUNE experiment to make the ground-breaking discoveries that will help to answer fundamental physics questions. Volume 3 describes the dual-phase module's subsystems, the technical coordination required for its design, construction, installation, and integration, and its organizational structure

A Gaseous Argon-Based Near Detector to Enhance the Physics Capabilities of DUNE

This document presents the concept and physics case for a magnetized gaseous argon-based detector system (ND-GAr) for the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) Near Detector. This detector system is required in order for DUNE to reach its full physics potential in the measurement of CP violation and in delivering precision measurements of oscillation parameters. In addition to its critical role in the long-baseline oscillation program, ND-GAr will extend the overall physics program of DUNE. The LBNF high-intensity proton beam will provide a large flux of neutrinos that is sampled by ND-GAr, enabling DUNE to discover new particles and search for new interactions and symmetries beyond those predicted in the Standard Model

Snowmass Neutrino Frontier: DUNE Physics Summary

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is a next-generation long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment with a primary physics goal of observing neutrino and antineutrino oscillation patterns to precisely measure the parameters governing long-baseline neutrino oscillation in a single experiment, and to test the three-flavor paradigm. DUNE's design has been developed by a large, international collaboration of scientists and engineers to have unique capability to measure neutrino oscillation as a function of energy in a broadband beam, to resolve degeneracy among oscillation parameters, and to control systematic uncertainty using the exquisite imaging capability of massive LArTPC far detector modules and an argon-based near detector. DUNE's neutrino oscillation measurements will unambiguously resolve the neutrino mass ordering and provide the sensitivity to discover CP violation in neutrinos for a wide range of possible values of δCP. DUNE is also uniquely sensitive to electron neutrinos from a galactic supernova burst, and to a broad range of physics beyond the Standard Model (BSM), including nucleon decays. DUNE is anticipated to begin collecting physics data with Phase I, an initial experiment configuration consisting of two far detector modules and a minimal suite of near detector components, with a 1.2 MW proton beam. To realize its extensive, world-leading physics potential requires the full scope of DUNE be completed in Phase II. The three Phase II upgrades are all necessary to achieve DUNE's physics goals: (1) addition of far detector modules three and four for a total FD fiducial mass of at least 40 kt, (2) upgrade of the proton beam power from 1.2 MW to 2.4 MW, and (3) replacement of the near detector's temporary muon spectrometer with a magnetized, high-pressure gaseous argon TPC and calorimeter

Scintillation light detection in the 6-m drift-length ProtoDUNE Dual Phase liquid argon TPC

DUNE is a dual-site experiment for long-baseline neutrino oscillation studies, neutrino astrophysics and nucleon decay searches. ProtoDUNE Dual Phase (DP) is a 6  ×  6  ×  6 m 3 liquid argon time-projection-chamber (LArTPC) that recorded cosmic-muon data at the CERN Neutrino Platform in 2019-2020 as a prototype of the DUNE Far Detector. Charged particles propagating through the LArTPC produce ionization and scintillation light. The scintillation light signal in these detectors can provide the trigger for non-beam events. In addition, it adds precise timing capabilities and improves the calorimetry measurements. In ProtoDUNE-DP, scintillation and electroluminescence light produced by cosmic muons in the LArTPC is collected by photomultiplier tubes placed up to 7 m away from the ionizing track. In this paper, the ProtoDUNE-DP photon detection system performance is evaluated with a particular focus on the different wavelength shifters, such as PEN and TPB, and the use of Xe-doped LAr, considering its future use in giant LArTPCs. The scintillation light production and propagation processes are analyzed and a comparison of simulation to data is performed, improving understanding of the liquid argon properties