Impact of Rising World Rice Prices on Poverty and Inequality in Burkina Faso

Between January 2006 and April 2008, the prices of most of the agricultural products considerably rose in international markets. Empirical studies show that this spike in world food prices has increased the number of poor households in developing countries, but the magnitude is not the same in all countries. This paper assesses the impact of rising rice price on poverty and income inequality in Burkina Faso. We use a methodology based on the concept of compensating variation combined with the net benefit ratio (NBR) developed by Deaton (1989) and living standard survey (QUIBB, 2003). The results show that higher rice prices have a negative impact on income and poverty in the regions with a large proportion of households who are net buyers of rice. The poverty rate increases by 2.2 to 2.9 percentage points depending on the assumptions. The increase in poverty increase is higher in urban areas than in rural areas. Rising rice prices also increase income inequality. Income inequality particularly increases in urban areas and in relatively rich regions, but it decreases in poor regions with an important proportion of rice producers

L'impact des aides américaines et européennes sur le marché du coton : résultats d'un modèle d'équilibre partiel dynamique

L'objectif est d'évaluer l'impact des subventions américaines et européennes sur le marché international du coton à partir d'un modèle d'équilibre partiel dynamique. L'originalité de ce travail est de prendre en compte de façon détaillée les différentes mesures d'aides et, notamment, le nouveau dispositif européen applicable à partir de 2006. Une autre originalité réside dans le choix de deux campagnes de référence permettant de saisir le caractère contra cyclique des aides. L'originalité réside également dans la prise en compte du risque de prix au niveau de l'offre de coton et l'estimation économétrique des fonctions d'offre de demande et de stockage. Les résultats, en termes de variation du prix mondial du coton s'inscrivent dans une fourchette relativement large (4 à 17 %) qui dépend de façon cruciale : du montant initial des aides aux USA, de l'évolution des coûts de production au USA et de la perception par les cotonculteurs du caractère plus ou moins découplé des aides

L'impact des aides américaines et européennes sur le marché du coton : résultats d'un modèle d'équilibre partiel dynamique

L'objectif est d'évaluer l'impact des subventions américaines et européennes sur le marché international du coton à partir d'un modèle d'équilibre partiel dynamique. L'originalité de ce travail est de prendre en compte de façon détaillée les différentes mesures d'aides et, notamment, le nouveau dispositif européen applicable à partir de 2006. Une autre originalité réside dans le choix de deux campagnes de référence permettant de saisir le caractère contra cyclique des aides. L'originalité réside également dans la prise en compte du risque de prix au niveau de l'offre de coton et l'estimation économétrique des fonctions d'offre de demande et de stockage. Les résultats, en termes de variation du prix mondial du coton s'inscrivent dans une fourchette relativement large (4 à 17 %) qui dépend de façon cruciale : du montant initial des aides aux USA, de l'évolution des coûts de production au USA et de la perception par les cotonculteurs du caractère plus ou moins découplé des aides.coton;subventions;modèle d'équilibre partiel

A Global Trading System in Turmoil: What is at Stake for Africa

The trade war between the United States and China involves the two largest players in the world economy (i.e., the two countries with the largest GDPs, and the largest exporters and importers). Consequently, increasing trade tensions between these two giants are a major stake and it is expected that these tensions will negatively affect third countries through spillover effects. Trade tensions may also become even more important and may potentially concern other players in the world economy. This is why the global trading system appears to be today in turmoil

Foreign aid shocks and macroeconomic adjustment mechanisms in WAEMU countries : an approach based on a computable general equilibrium model

This paper assesses consequences of foreign aid reduction on WAEMU economies and the various adjustment mechanisms that must be implemented internally to support this situation. Indeed, using a computable dynamic recursive general equilibrium model of Décaluwé et al., (2013) calibrated on each countries SAMs, results indicate that 30% decrease in foreign aid will affect government's saving, income and expenditures, and consequently public and private investment as well as the GDP growth rate. Offsetting this foreign aid drop through an adjustment of direct and indirect taxation leads to a slight decline in income, consumption and a deterioration of household welfare. Thus, overall, the results show that a drastic reduction of foreign aid in WAEMU countries will have more perverse repercussions in countries which are the most dependent on foreign aid. However, some economies such as Ivory Coast, Senegal and Burkina Faso would adjust more rapidly than those of other countries. One of the main contributions of this study is to provide economic policy makers in WAEMU countries with evidence of the possibility of budgetary arbitrage and fiscal adjustments for the financing of WAEMU countries economies facing a situation of partial or complete abolishment of foreign aid

MIRAGRODEP 2.0: Documentation

MIRAGRODEP is a recursive-dynamic, multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model, devoted to trade and agricultural policy analysis. It is developed for AGRODEP and draws upon the MIRAGE model built by CEPII. It incorporates specific features such as foreign direct investment and runs with a tariff aggregation module that allows the user to capture the exclusion effects at a detailed level and the variance of tariffs. The model also includes a submodule allowing to test different closures for the public sector as well as the inefficiency of the tax collection system. MIRAGRODEP 2.0 includes an improved demand system. Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and trade data in MIRAGRODEP are based on the GTAP database. Additional sources such as MacMap are used for protection data. This technical note presents an expanded documentation, with instructions on how to run the model and an illustrative application

Measuring food price volatility

Over the past two decades, the prices of agricultural commodities have experienced large and unpredictable fluctuations that have attracted the attention of researchers, policymakers and the media to better understand the mechanisms that govern this phenomenon. It is therefore important to acquire basic tools to assess the level of price volatility to warn of abnormal movements. The main objective of this technical note is to provide an overview of this literature in constant evolution, and tools for measuring food price volatility. The tools developed in this technical note help understand the complexity of measuring volatility and the caution required in their use. Thus, the application of these tools requires their adaptation to the nature of the data generating process and the use of appropriate tests and criteria in order to choose the best approach.Non-PRIFPRI1; AGRODEPMTI