The Influence of Fire, Herbivores and Rainfall on Vegetation Dynamics in the Mallee: a Long-term Experiment

Fire regimes, grazing regimes and climatic variation potentially influence the distribution and abundance of plant species in the mallee over long time scales. For example, the timing of fires and rainfall events influences the establishment of many plant species, while herbivory and drought have selective effects on plant survival. Rainfall events influence short-term bushfi re fuel dynamics and, with herbivores, determine landscape flammability. The frequency and spatial pattern of fire regimes have been identified as important management tools that may influence the persistence of mallee biota. A long term ecological experiment has been established in the Tarawi-Scotia-Danggali reserves to improve understanding of the mechanisms that influence vegetation change and the ability of the ecosystem to sustain its characteristic biota. Herbivore-specific grazing exclosures were established in tandem with planned management burning and some unplanned fires over a 12-year period. In this paper we outline the management issues and research questions that the study seeks to address, describe the design of the experiment and the data collected from the treated sites. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the experiment and the valuable insights that long term ecological studies of this type can produce

Population Dynamics of Xanthorrhoea resinosa Pers. Over Two Decades: Implications for Fire Management

Fire has an important influence on the biota of Royal National Park and is a factor over which park managers exert some control. Fire management guidelines for biodiversity conservation are expressed as thresholds that define fire-regimes associated with elevated risks of extinction that management must aim to avoid. These thresholds strongly reflect fire-interval effects on fire-sensitive (non-resprouting) species. In contrast, the guidelines are less prescriptive about the characteristics of particular fire events (e.g. intensity, season, post-fire rainfall) or competition because the long-term importance of these factors is less well understood. On-going monitoring is required to determine if conservation goals will be met by management actions under these guidelines, or if they should be adapted to counter previously unidentified negative trends. In particular, populations of resprouting species which appear to be relatively resilient to interval-dependent effects must be monitored to detect subtle, but ultimately dangerous declines. We describe population trends in the iconic grass-tree Xanthorrhoea resinosa based on observations of over 3000 individual plants over a period of 23 years. We identify divergent population trends predicted to result in either local extinction within 200 years or slight declines depending on rates of mortality. Experimental evidence is presented for a strong impact of competition on survival which, at one of the study sites, led to local extinction following a single fire interval of 17 years. The relative importance of mortality associated with heat shock during fire, the effort of post-fire resprouting and flowering and other factors such as disease and competition are discussed. Our results suggest that a focus on minimum fire intervals alone will not guarantee the long-term persistence of key understorey species and that fire regime thresholds should more directly consider functional groups containing species with low potential for population growth

Vegetation Dynamics in Coastal Heathlands of the Sydney Basin

Heathlands are dynamic ecosystems that change in response to fire regimes and climate variations, as well as endogenous processes such as competition between component species. An understanding of how heathlands change through time is central to the development of management strategies that aim to conserve them and maintain coexistence of their plants and animals. We briefly review the development of this understanding for Sydney’s coastal heathlands from the emergence of the first published work in the 1930s. In our previous work, we focussed on fire regimes and interspecific competition between plants as important processes that drive ecosystem dynamics (succession) and mediate species coexistence and diversity. Here, we synthesise our understanding of heathland dynamics into a state and transition framework. We first develop a simple classification of heathland states based on their composition of plant functional types and developmental stage with time since fire. We then propose a qualitative model that predicts transitions between states conditional upon intervals between fires, fire-mediated life cycle processes of component plant species and interactions between species. We applied the model to predict qualitative changes in heathland state under contrasting fire regime scenarios, and tested example predictions using a long-term study of heathland dynamics in Royal National Park. Empirical observations of overstorey and understorey change were generally consistent with model predictions, subject to variability between sites. Importantly, the model helps to identify fire scenarios that promote dynamic coexistence of multiple heathland states that each support different components of heathland biota. We conclude that simple process models can be very useful for informing management decisions by describing expected responses to alternative management strategies. These predictions lend themselves to testing in adaptive management experiments that seek to spread risks and improve understanding of ecosystem dynamics for future management

Native vegetation of southeast NSW: a revised classification and map for the coast and eastern tablelands

Native vegetation of the NSW south coast, escarpment and southeast tablelands was classified into 191 floristic assemblages at a level of detail appropriate for the discrimination of Threatened Ecological Communities and other vegetation units referred to in government legislation. Assemblages were derived by a numerical analysis of 10832 field sample quadrats including 8523 compiled from 63 previous vegetation surveys. Past bias in the distribution of field data towards land under public tenure was corrected by extensive surveys carried out on private land. The classification revises and integrates the units described in recent vegetation studies of Eden, Cumberland Plain and Sydney-south coast into a single, consistent classification. Relationships between floristic assemblages and climate, terrain, substrate and vegetation structure were used to map the distribution of communities prior to clearing at 1:100 000 scale. The extent of clearing was mapped using interpretations of remote imagery (1991–2001) from previous work, standardised and merged into a single coverage and supplemented with additional work. Profiles for each assemblage, which we term ‘communities’ or ‘map units’, describe their species composition, vegetation structure, environmental habitat, the extent of clearing and conservation status. Lists of diagnostic species were defined using a statistical fidelity measure and a procedure for using these for community identification is described. Approximately 66% of the study area retains a cover of native vegetation, primarily in areas with low fertility soils and dissected topography. Communities subject to over-clearing (>70%) are concentrated in a few large areas characterised by clay/loam soils and flat to undulating terrain. These include the Sydney metropolis, Wingecarribee Plateau, Illawarra Plain, Shoalhaven floodplain, Araluen Valley and Bega Valley, and various smaller river valleys. Forty-one percent of remaining native vegetation is protected within conservation reserves while 31% occurs on private land, 20% in State Forests and 8% on other Crown lands. Forty-five Threatened Ecological Communities (TECs) were recorded in the study area. The majority of TECs are represented by a single map unit, although in some cases a TEC is included within a broader map unit. Twelve TECs are represented by combinations of two or more map units

Multiscale modelling of vascular tumour growth in 3D: the roles of domain size & boundary condition

We investigate a three-dimensional multiscale model of vascular tumour growth, which couples blood flow, angiogenesis, vascular remodelling, nutrient/growth factor transport, movement of, and interactions between, normal and tumour cells, and nutrient-dependent cell cycle dynamics within each cell. In particular, we determine how the domain size, aspect ratio and initial vascular network influence the tumour's growth dynamics and its long-time composition. We establish whether it is possible to extrapolate simulation results obtained for small domains to larger ones, by constructing a large simulation domain from a number of identical subdomains, each subsystem initially comprising two parallel parent vessels, with associated cells and diffusible substances. We find that the subsystem is not representative of the full domain and conclude that, for this initial vessel geometry, interactions between adjacent subsystems contribute to the overall growth dynamics. We then show that extrapolation of results from a small subdomain to a larger domain can only be made if the subdomain is sufficiently large and is initialised with a sufficiently complex vascular network. Motivated by these results, we perform simulations to investigate the tumour's response to therapy and show that the probability of tumour elimination in a larger domain can be extrapolated from simulation results on a smaller domain. Finally, we demonstrate how our model may be combined with experimental data, to predict the spatio-temporal evolution of a vascular tumour

A function-based typology for Earth’s ecosystems

As the United Nations develops a post-2020 global biodiversity framework for the Convention on Biological Diversity, attention is focusing on how new goals and targets for ecosystem conservation might serve its vision of ‘living in harmony with nature’(1,2). Advancing dual imperatives to conserve biodiversity and sustain ecosystem services requires reliable and resilient generalizations and predictions about ecosystem responses to environmental change and management(3). Ecosystems vary in their biota(4), service provision(5) and relative exposure to risks(6), yet there is no globally consistent classification of ecosystems that reflects functional responses to change and management. This hampers progress on developing conservation targets and sustainability goals. Here we present the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Global Ecosystem Typology, a conceptually robust, scalable, spatially explicit approach for generalizations and predictions about functions, biota, risks and management remedies across the entire biosphere. The outcome of a major cross-disciplinary collaboration, this novel framework places all of Earth’s ecosystems into a unifying theoretical context to guide the transformation of ecosystem policy and management from global to local scales. This new information infrastructure will support knowledge transfer for ecosystem-specific management and restoration, globally standardized ecosystem risk assessments, natural capital accounting and progress on the post-2020 global biodiversity framework

Developing a core outcome set for fistulising perianal Crohn's disease

OBJECTIVE: Lack of standardised outcomes hampers effective analysis and comparison of data when comparing treatments in fistulising perianal Crohn's disease (pCD). Development of a standardised set of outcomes would resolve these issues. This study provides the definitive core outcome set (COS) for fistulising pCD. DESIGN: Candidate outcomes were generated through a systematic review and patient interviews. Consensus was established via a three-round Delphi process using a 9-point Likert scale based on how important they felt it was in determining treatment success culminating in a final consensus meeting. Stakeholders were recruited nationally and grouped into three panels (surgeons and radiologists, gastroenterologists and IBD specialist nurses, and patients). Participants received feedback fromtheir panel(in the second round) andall participants(in the third round) to allow refinement of their scores. RESULTS: A total of 295 outcomes were identified from systematic reviews and interviews that were categorised into 92 domains. 187 stakeholders (response rate 78.5%) prioritised 49 outcomes through a three-round Delphi study.The final consensus meeting of 41 experts and patients generated agreement on an eight domain COS. The COS comprised three patient-reported outcome domains (quality of life, incontinence and a combined score of patient priorities) and five clinician-reported outcome domains (perianal disease activity, development of new perianal abscess/sepsis, new/recurrent fistula, unplanned surgery and faecal diversion). CONCLUSION: A fistulising pCD COS has been produced by all key stakeholders. Application of the COS will reduce heterogeneity in outcome reporting, thereby facilitating more meaningful comparisons between treatments, data synthesis and ultimately benefit patient care

Imaging biomarker roadmap for cancer studies.

Imaging biomarkers (IBs) are integral to the routine management of patients with cancer. IBs used daily in oncology include clinical TNM stage, objective response and left ventricular ejection fraction. Other CT, MRI, PET and ultrasonography biomarkers are used extensively in cancer research and drug development. New IBs need to be established either as useful tools for testing research hypotheses in clinical trials and research studies, or as clinical decision-making tools for use in healthcare, by crossing 'translational gaps' through validation and qualification. Important differences exist between IBs and biospecimen-derived biomarkers and, therefore, the development of IBs requires a tailored 'roadmap'. Recognizing this need, Cancer Research UK (CRUK) and the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) assembled experts to review, debate and summarize the challenges of IB validation and qualification. This consensus group has produced 14 key recommendations for accelerating the clinical translation of IBs, which highlight the role of parallel (rather than sequential) tracks of technical (assay) validation, biological/clinical validation and assessment of cost-effectiveness; the need for IB standardization and accreditation systems; the need to continually revisit IB precision; an alternative framework for biological/clinical validation of IBs; and the essential requirements for multicentre studies to qualify IBs for clinical use.Development of this roadmap received support from Cancer Research UK and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (grant references A/15267, A/16463, A/16464, A/16465, A/16466 and A/18097), the EORTC Cancer Research Fund, and the Innovative Medicines Initiative Joint Undertaking (grant agreement number 115151), resources of which are composed of financial contribution from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) and European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA) companies' in kind contribution

Developing a core outcome set for fistulising perianal Crohn's disease

Objective Lack of standardised outcomes hampers effective analysis and comparison of data when comparing treatments in fistulising perianal Crohn’s disease (pCD). Development of a standardised set of outcomes would resolve these issues. This study provides the definitive core outcome set (COS) for fistulising pCD. Design Candidate outcomes were generated through a systematic review and patient interviews. Consensus was established via a three-round Delphi process using a 9-point Likert scale based on how important they felt it was in determining treatment success culminating in a final consensus meeting. Stakeholders were recruited nationally and grouped into three panels (surgeons and radiologists, gastroenterologists and IBD specialist nurses, and patients). Participants received feedback from their panel (in the second round) and all participants (in the third round) to allow refinement of their scores. Results A total of 295 outcomes were identified from systematic reviews and interviews that were categorised into 92 domains. 187 stakeholders (response rate 78.5%) prioritised 49 outcomes through a three-round Delphi study. The final consensus meeting of 41 experts and patients generated agreement on an eight domain COS. The COS comprised three patient-reported outcome domains (quality of life, incontinence and a combined score of patient priorities) and five clinician-reported outcome domains (perianal disease activity, development of new perianal abscess/sepsis, new/recurrent fistula, unplanned surgery and faecal diversion). Conclusion A fistulising pCD COS has been produced by all key stakeholders. Application of the COS will reduce heterogeneity in outcome reporting, thereby facilitating more meaningful comparisons between treatments, data synthesis and ultimately benefit patient care

Humidity-regulated dormancy onset in the Fabaceae: a conceptual model and its ecological implications for the Australian wattle Acacia saligna

Background and aims Seed dormancy enhances fitness by preventing seeds from germinating when the probability of seedling survival and recruitment is low. The onset of physical dormancy is sensitive to humidity during ripening; however, the implications of this mechanism for seed bank dynamics have not been quantified. This study proposes a model that describes how humidity-regulated dormancy onset may control the accumulation of a dormant seed bank, and seed experiments are conducted to calibrate the model for an Australian Fabaceae, Acacia saligna. The model is used to investigate the impact of climate on seed dormancy and to forecast the ecological implications of human-induced climate change. Methods The relationship between relative humidity and dormancy onset was quantified under laboratory conditions by exposing freshly matured non-dormant seeds to constant humidity levels for fixed durations. The model was field-calibrated by measuring the response of seeds exposed to naturally fluctuating humidity. The model was applied to 3-hourly records of humidity spanning the period 1972-2007 in order to estimate both temporal variability in dormancy and spatial variability attributable to climatic differences among populations. Climate change models were used to project future changes in dormancy onset. Key Results A sigmoidal relationship exists between dormancy and humidity under both laboratory and field conditions. Seeds ripened under field conditions became dormant following very short exposure to low humidity (%). Prolonged exposure at higher humidity did not increase dormancy significantly. It is predicted that populations growing in a temperate climate produce 33-55 % fewer dormant seeds than those in a Mediterranean climate; however, dormancy in temperate populations is predicted to increase as a result of climate change. Conclusions Humidity-regulated dormancy onset may explain observed variation in physical dormancy. The model offers a systematic approach to modelling this variation in population studies. Forecast changes in climate have the potential to alter the seed bank dynamics of species with physical dormancy regulated by this mechanism, with implications for their capacity to delay germination and exploit windows for recruitment