Achieving sustainable future objectives under uncertain conditions: Application of a learning framework to adaptation pathways in rural Mali

Adaptation Pathways have emerged as promising approaches for exploring sequences of actions to address challenges in uncertain conditions. This study elaborates on how pathway approaches operate in practice by applying a learning framework that identifies guiding propositions for successful adaptation pathways. The framework is used to analyze a transformative scenario planning case study from rural Mali. Findings confirm that adaptation pathways are highly context-specific, grounded in local institutions. The study also emphasizes that the adaptation pathways process requires a sufficient timeframe to allow for cross-level interactions and institutional changes to unfold as needed. The case demonstrates that the framework can be a useful tool for reflexive learning and identifying gaps in a structured way during pathway development. However, it needs to be adjusted to specific contexts to better capture the influence of and implications for power relations and social inequality in future adaptation plans

Use of the HEC RAS model for the analysis of exceptional floods in the Ouémé basin

The Ouémé River basin extends over almost half of Benin's territory, entirely located in a humid tropical climate. This river system includes a deltaic zone (delta of the Ouémé) known for its high agricultural potential and thus subject to a socio-economic development agenda. The Ouémé delta is facing recurrent floods that maintain rural agricultural population into a retrograding crisis with significant damages such as losses of properties. The objective of this study is to improve decision-making in the Ouémé basin through the simulation of exceptional floods using the HEC-RAS model. The HEC RAS model is a conceptual model, which works through mathematical and physical formulas to implement environmental phenomena for forecasting, understanding and analysis purposes. The model inputs used are basin GIS data, hydro-meteorological data, characteristics of existing hydraulic structures, etc. The targeted outputs include 1D/2D/3D view plans with support of satellite images, tables, graphs and curves. It is worth mentioning that the model provides outputs compatible with other tools, such as civil engineering (Civil 3D, Revit, Infraworks, etc.) and GIS, that help to expand the valorization fields. The implementation of the model in the Ouémé basin has made it possible to note: (i) that the recurring effect of losses and damages is justified by the settlement of the population on the river banks; (ii) that there is an important agricultural production in areas of high flood risk; (iii) that depending on the occurrence of the phenomenon, the flooded extent and the height of submersion remains variable, and more important for extreme flooding; (iv) about 12.07 % occurrence of river flood against 13.24 % for flash flood at a return period of 30 years. Moreover, it is very relevant to note that most of flood waters converge to the western part of the basin (an area with a low risk of flooding, stretched over 63.68 km2) and to the eastern part around the Damè-Wogon depression (an area at high risk of flooding, stretched over 10.49 km2).</p

Africa

Africa is one of the lowest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions causing climate change, yet key development sectors have already experienced widespread losses and damages attributable to human-induced climate change, including biodiversity loss, water shortages, reduced food production, loss of lives and reduced economic growth (high confidence1).// Between 1.5°C and 2°C global warming—assuming localised and incremental adaptation—negative impacts are projected to become widespread and severe with reduced food production, reduced economic growth, increased inequality and poverty, biodiversity loss, increased human morbidity and mortality (high confidence). Limiting global warming to 1.5°C is expected to substantially reduce damages to African economies, agriculture, human health, and ecosystems compared to higher levels of global warming (high confidence).// Exposure and vulnerability to climate change in Africa are multi-dimensional with socioeconomic, political and environmental factors intersecting (very high confidence). Africans are disproportionately employed in climate-exposed sectors: 55–62% of the sub-Saharan workforce is employed in agriculture and 95% of cropland is rainfed. In rural Africa, poor and female-headed households face greater livelihood risks from climate hazards. In urban areas, growing informal settlements without basic services increase the vulnerability of large populations to climate hazards, especially women, children and the elderly. // Adaptation in Africa has multiple benefits, and most assessed adaptation options have medium effectiveness at reducing risks for present-day global warming, but their efficacy at future warming levels is largely unknown (high confidence)./

Can scenario planning catalyse transformational change? Evaluating a climate change policy case study in Mali

The potential of participatory scenario processes to catalyse individual and collective transformation and policy change is emphasised in several theoretical reflections. Participatory scenario processes are believed to enhance participants’ systems understanding, learning, networking and subsequent changes in practices. However, limited empirical evidence is available to prove these assumptions. This study aimed to contribute to this knowledge gap. It evaluates whether these outcomes had resulted from the scenario planning exercise and the extent to which they can contribute to transformational processes. The research focused on a district level case study in rural Mali which examined food security and necessary policy changes in the context of climate change. The analyses of interviews with 26 participants carried out 12 months after the workshop suggested positive changes in learning and networking, but only limited influence on systems understanding. There was limited change in practice, but the reported changes occurred at the individual level, and no policy outcomes were evident. However, by building the adaptive capacity of participants, the scenario process had laid the foundation for ongoing collective action, and potential institutional and policy transformation. We conclude that to enhance the resilience of agricultural and food systems under climate change, participatory scenario processes require a broader range of cross-scale actors’ engagement to support transformational changes. Such process will both catalyse deeper learning and more effective link with national level policy-making process. In addition, individual scenario planning exercises are unlikely to generate sufficient learning and reflection, and instead they should form one component of more extensive and deliberate stakeholder engagement, learning and evaluation processes

Continental fishery and risk of contamination of the halieutic ecosystems in the gbaga lagoon channel (Benin-Togo coastal zone)

The coastal zones are areas where a very high number of lagoon-marine species reproduce, grow or transit, which are most often the object of halieutic exploitation. The present study aims to analyze the risk of contamination of fisheries ecosystems and its consequences on the evolution of aquatic resources in the coastal zone, more precisely from southwest Benin to southeast Togo. The methodology adopted is based on the collection and processing of raw data such as: hydrometric data, granulometric data, climatological data, data from fauna and flora inventories, completed by those from in situ measurements and those from laboratory analyses made from sediment samples and some species caught during fishing activities during the different hydrological seasons. The analysis of the results revealed that the pollution of the lagoon channel in Cd, As, Pb and some major ions such as Cl−, NO3- and PO43- are responsible for its eutrophication. Furthermore, organic matter and high concentrations of SS lead to the covering of aquatic environments, particularly spawning grounds and the smothering of eggs through the reduction of essential metabolic exchanges (oxygen and nutrient supply, evacuation of metabolic waste) through the reduction of the concentration of dissolved oxygen within the substrate. Trace element analysis in the flesh of Captain (Polydactylus quadrifilis), white grouper (Epinephelus aeneus), tilefish (Tilapia zillii), and white catfish samples revealed their trace element contamination levels. Behavioral effects (abandonment of shelter areas and avoidance reaction); sublethal effects (short-term reduction in feeding rate; minor physiological stress; increase in coughing frequency; increase in the breathing rhythm; moderate physiological stress; major; delayed hatching; reduced number of fish; mortality) were recorded. According to 89 % of the fishermen, the decrease of the fished fish species is registered during the dry periods, when the channel has a high level of contaminating heavy metals and major ions.</p

Multi-scale governance in agriculture systems: Interplay between national and local institutions around the production dimension of food security in Mali

Enforcement of rules and laws designed at the national level is still one of the dominant institutional mechanisms for effective multiscale governance in most countries. At times, such blanket regulations are not only unable to meet practical needs at local levels, but they may conflict with local institutional logics, thereby creating new challenges. This study looks at three institutional arrangements in the agriculture and food security sector in the district of Koutiala, Mali to analyse the institutional variety across scale and the underlying institutional logics. On one side, the Cooperative Law as well as the Seed Law both designed at national level to enable famers’ access to agriculture services and improved seeds have yielded mixed results with regard to anticipated outcomes. The cooperative law is believed to degrade the social cohesion and the mutual support on which vulnerable farmers rely when facing climatic and non-climatic risks whereas the new seed system is found onerous and unaffordable for farmers. On the other side, the local convention for the management of natural resources established as part of ongoing decentralised governance policy seems to resonate with local culture but challenged by other stakeholders. Through exploring these cases, this paper tests bricolage as an analytical framework for doing an institutional diagnostic. It aims at contributing to methodological and theoretical insights on the way sustainable institutions can be generated in conflicting institutional logics in the context of multi-scale governance

Differential household vulnerability to climatic and non-climatic stressors in semi-arid areas of Mali, West Africa

Semi-Arid Regions (SARs) of West Africa are considered climate change “hotspots” where strong ecological, economic and social impacts converge to make socio-ecological systems particularly vulnerable. While both climatic and non-climatic drivers interact across scales to influence vulnerability, traditionally, this inter-connectedness has received little attention in vulnerability assessments in the region. This study adopted the vulnerability patterns framework, operationalized using the Multidimensional Livelihood Vulnerability approach to include both climatic and nonclimatic stressors to analyze differential household vulnerability in SARs of Mali. Findings showed that while drought was the most mentioned climate-related stressor, households were also exposed to a diversity of environmental and socio-economic stressors, including food scarcity, livestock disease, labour unavailability, crop damage, and erratic rainfall patterns. The typology revealed three vulnerability archetypes differentiated by adaptive capacity and sensitivity. Availability of productive household members, household resource endowments, livelihood diversification and social networks were the main discriminant factors of household adaptive capacity, while challenges relating to food and water security make households more sensitive to stressors. The analysis highlighted the heterogeneity in household vulnerability patterns within and across communities. Failing to account for this heterogeneity in adaptation planning might result in a mismatch between adaptation needs and interventions, and potentially in maladaptation

Science-policy interfaces for sustainable climate-smart agriculture uptake: lessons learnt from national science-policy dialogue platforms in West Africa

Connecting science with policy has always been challenging for both scientists and policymakers. In Ghana, Mali and Senegal, multi-stakeholder national science-policy dialogue platforms on climate-smart agriculture (CSA) were setup to use scientific evidence to create awareness of climate change impacts on agriculture and advocate for the mainstreaming of climate change and CSA into agricultural development plans. Based on the platforms’ operations and achievements, we used semi-structured questionnaire interviews and reviewed technical reports produced by the platforms to analyse how their modes of operation and achievements improve understanding of the science-policy interfaces between agricultural and climate change decision making. Results showed that these platforms constitute an innovative approach to effectively engaging decision-makers and sustainably mainstreaming climate change into development plans. Effective science-policy interaction requires: (a) institutionalizing dialogue platforms by embedding them within national institutions, which improves their credibility, relevance and legitimacy among policymakers; (b) two-way communication, which contributes substantially to the co-development of solutions that address climate change vulnerabilities and impacts; and (c) relevant communication products and packaging of evidence that aligns with country priorities, which facilitates its uptake in policy-making processes. We conclude with a framework of sustainable operation for such platforms based on lessons learnt in the three countries

Processors' experience in the use of flash dryer for cassava-derived products in Nigeria

This study was designed and carried out to ascertain the situation and perceptions of end users of cassava flash drying equipment in Nigeria with the aim of giving suggestions to policies and approaches for improved technology. Forty-one processing firms were selected and interviewed. Descriptive analyses were used and a logistic regression model was estimated. The results revealed that 49% of the firms stopped using their flash dryers due to the low demand for high-quality cassava flour (HQCF) resulting from the high cost of processing occasioned by an inefficient heat-generating component. The estimated model provides evidence that cost effectiveness (p < 0.05) and energy cost (p < 0.10) are the two major determinants of the continuous usage of flash dryers in the study area. Forty-one percent of the firms indicated willingness to pay for any technical adjustment of their flash dryers, supposing such adjustment would improve on drying and the energy efficiency of the equipment up to 40%. The study recommends that machine fabricators in Nigeria and other African countries should be trained on the production of energy- and cost-efficient small-scale flash dryers. Again, the design and commercialization of flash dryers that can be mounted on mobile trucks for farm-gate processing should be encouraged to facilitate farm-gate processing, thereby reducing postharvest losses resulting from transporting perishable and bulky roots over a long distance

Advancing climate resilient development pathways since the IPCC’s fifth assessment report

Development processes and action on climate change are closely interlinked. This is recognised by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its fifth assessment report, which reports on climate-resilient pathways, understood as development trajectories towards sustainable development which include adaptation and mitigation. The upcoming sixth assessment report dedicates a chapter to climate resilient development pathways. In this context, this paper asks what conceptual and empirical advances on climate resilient development pathways were made since the fifth assessment report. Through a literature review, this paper analyses goals and approaches for climate resilient development pathways, and discusses what conceptual advances have and could still be made. We find little evidence of dedicated concept development. Rather, we observe conceptual ambiguity. Literature showed four non-exclusive clusters of approaches: (a) climate action oriented, (b) social-learning and co-creation oriented, (c) mainstreaming oriented and (d) transformation oriented. We recommend operationalising climate resilient development pathways as the process of consolidating climate action and development decisions towards long-term sustainable development. This process requires explicit engagement with aspirations of actors, and connecting past developments with future aspirations and understandings of risk. Working with multiple pathways allows us to embed flexibility, anticipation and learning in planning. A greater focus is needed on issues linked to justice and equity as climate resilient development pathways will inevitably involve trade-offs. Substantiating the concept of climate resilient development pathways has the potential to bridge climate and development perspectives, which may otherwise remain separated in development and climate policy, practice and science