A methodological integrated approach to analyse climate change effects in agri-food sector: The TIMES water-energy-food module

The European Union’s 2030 climate and energy policy and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development underline the commitment to mitigate climate change and reduce its impacts by supporting sustainable use of resources. This commitment has become stricter in light of the ambitious climate neutrality target set by the European Green Deal for 2050. Water, Energy and Food are the key variables of the “Nexus Thinking” which face the sustainability challenge with a multi-sectoral approach. The aim of the paper is to show the methodological path toward the implementation of an integrated modeling platform based on the Nexus approach and consolidated energy system analysis methods to represent the agri-food system in a circular economy perspective (from the use of water, energy, biomass, and land to food production). The final aim is to support decision-making connected to climate change mitigation. The IEA-The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) model generator was used to build up the Basilicata Water, Energy and Food model (TIMES-WEF model), which allows users a comprehensive evaluation of the impacts of climate change on the Basilicata agri-food system in terms of land use, yields and water availability and a critical comparison of these indicators in different scenarios. The paper focuses on the construction of the model’s Reference Energy and Material System of the TIMES model, which integrates water and agricultural commodities into the energy framework, and on the results obtained through the calibration of the model β version to statistical data on agricultural activities.publishersversionpublishe

Digital work engagement among Italian neurologists

Background: Digital health, including telemedicine, is increasingly recommended for the management of chronic neurological disorders, and it has changed the roles of patients and clinicians. Methods: In this cross-sectional study we aimed to investigate the digital work engagement of Italian neurologists through a survey collected between September 2020 and January 2021. Questionnaires were anonymous and collected demographic characteristics, attitudes towards digital devices and social media, and details about the clinician–patient relationship. We used logistic-regression models to identify characteristics associated with the propensity to communicate with patients using social media. Results: Among the 553 neurologists who participated to the study, smartphones and computers were widely preferred compared with tablets; wearable devices were not common, although some neurologists desired them. A total of 48% of participants reported communicating with patients using social media but only a few were in favor of social friendship with patients; WhatsApp was the social media most popular for professional (86%) and personal (98%) purposes. Propensity to communicate with social media was significantly higher among those who were older (p < 0.001) and lived in regions outside northern Italy (center: p = 0.006; south and the islands: p < 0.001). For 58% of responders, social media improved their relationship with patients, but 72% usually warned patients about unreliable websites. Conclusions: The preferred social media were those which were rapid and which safeguard privacy more effectively; neurologists made many efforts to disprove fake news circulating online, providing help to patients in various ways. This analysis can help direct future interventions for the management of chronic neurological disorders

COVID-19 Severity in Multiple Sclerosis: Putting Data Into Context

Background and objectives: It is unclear how multiple sclerosis (MS) affects the severity of COVID-19. The aim of this study is to compare COVID-19-related outcomes collected in an Italian cohort of patients with MS with the outcomes expected in the age- and sex-matched Italian population. Methods: Hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and death after COVID-19 diagnosis of 1,362 patients with MS were compared with the age- and sex-matched Italian population in a retrospective observational case-cohort study with population-based control. The observed vs the expected events were compared in the whole MS cohort and in different subgroups (higher risk: Expanded Disability Status Scale [EDSS] score &gt; 3 or at least 1 comorbidity, lower risk: EDSS score ≤ 3 and no comorbidities) by the χ2 test, and the risk excess was quantified by risk ratios (RRs). Results: The risk of severe events was about twice the risk in the age- and sex-matched Italian population: RR = 2.12 for hospitalization (p &lt; 0.001), RR = 2.19 for ICU admission (p &lt; 0.001), and RR = 2.43 for death (p &lt; 0.001). The excess of risk was confined to the higher-risk group (n = 553). In lower-risk patients (n = 809), the rate of events was close to that of the Italian age- and sex-matched population (RR = 1.12 for hospitalization, RR = 1.52 for ICU admission, and RR = 1.19 for death). In the lower-risk group, an increased hospitalization risk was detected in patients on anti-CD20 (RR = 3.03, p = 0.005), whereas a decrease was detected in patients on interferon (0 observed vs 4 expected events, p = 0.04). Discussion: Overall, the MS cohort had a risk of severe events that is twice the risk than the age- and sex-matched Italian population. This excess of risk is mainly explained by the EDSS score and comorbidities, whereas a residual increase of hospitalization risk was observed in patients on anti-CD20 therapies and a decrease in people on interferon

DMTs and Covid-19 severity in MS: a pooled analysis from Italy and France

We evaluated the effect of DMTs on Covid-19 severity in patients with MS, with a pooled-analysis of two large cohorts from Italy and France. The association of baseline characteristics and DMTs with Covid-19 severity was assessed by multivariate ordinal-logistic models and pooled by a fixed-effect meta-analysis. 1066 patients with MS from Italy and 721 from France were included. In the multivariate model, anti-CD20 therapies were significantly associated (OR&nbsp;=&nbsp;2.05, 95%CI&nbsp;=&nbsp;1.39–3.02, p&nbsp;&lt;&nbsp;0.001) with Covid-19 severity, whereas interferon indicated a decreased risk (OR&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.42, 95%CI&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.18–0.99, p&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.047). This pooled-analysis confirms an increased risk of severe Covid-19 in patients on anti-CD20 therapies and supports the protective role of interferon

Decision-making support tools and scenario analysis for valorising endogenous resources and promoting energy efficiency

Climate change represents the greatest environmental challenge humanity has ever faced, whose effects today seem to be irreversible. In such a context, agriculture is facing four main challenges: (i) becoming more resilient and adapting to climate change, (ii) reducing its impact in terms of GHG emissions and soil degradation, (iii) increasing its carbon sink potential, (iv) providing sufficient and healthy food to meet the growing demand of the population. This requires a transition from current models of intensive production to new models based on sustainable resource management. The adoption of a holistic approach is therefore essential to effectively represent the main variables (energy, water, environment, food and soil) and their interrelationships, exploit the complex interconnections between them and the associated phenomena, reduce risks identify feasible strategies for sustainable resource management based on integrated policies. An integration of the Nexus approach with the IEA-TIMES framework has been proposed to develop an innovative land use driven model - the TIMES Land-WEF model, which ensures an optimal management of resources of the entire agricultural system in a circular economy perspective. The TIMES- Land-WEF model was validated in the Basilicata Region, a selected area of Mediterranean Europe, in order to evaluate the robustness of solutions under different conditions, namely to determine the effects of climate change on agricultural production and performing and assessment of the Farm to Fork strategy of the EU Green Deal

Aquaporin-4 autoantibodies in Neuromyelitis Optica: AQP4 isoform-dependent sensitivity and specificity.

Neuromyelitis Optica (NMO) is an autoimmune demyelinating disease, characterized by the presence of autoantibody (NMO-IgG) to Aquaporin-4 (AQP4). NMO-IgG identification supports NMO diagnosis and several diagnostic tests have been developed, but their sensitivity is too variable, and some assay show low sensitivity. This impairs correct diagnosis of NMO. By cell based assay (CBA) we here evaluate the efficacy of different strategies to express AQP4 in mammalian cells in terms of: a) AQP4 translation initiation signals; b) AQP4 isoforms (M1 and M23) and fluorescent tag position; c) NMO serum concentration and AQP4 degradation. Our results demonstrate that when using AQP4-M1, the nucleotide in position -3 of the AUG greatly affects the AQP4-M1/M23 protein ratio, NMO-IgG binding, and consequently test sensitivity. Test sensitivity was highest with M23 expressing cells (97.5%) and only 27.5% with AQP4-M1. The fluorescent tag added to the N-terminus of AQP4-M23 considerably affected the NMO-IgG binding, and test sensitivity, due to disruption of AQP4 suprastructures. Furthermore, sera used at high concentration resulted in AQP4 degradation which affected test sensitivity. To further evaluate the reliability of the M23 based CBA test, samples of one NMO patient collected during about 2 years clinical follow-up were tested. The results of serum titer correlated with disease activity and treatment response. In conclusion, we provide a molecular explanation for the contrasting CBA test data reported and suggest the use of M23 with a C-terminus fluorescent tag as the proper test for NMO diagnosis

Identification of two major conformational aquaporin-4 epitopes for neuromyelitis optica autoantibody binding

Neuromyelitis optica (NMO) is an autoimmune demyelinating disease characterized by the presence of anti-aquaporin-4 (AQP4) antibodies in the patient sera. We recently reported that these autoantibodies are able to bind AQP4 when organized in the supramolecular structure called the orthogonal array of particles (OAP). To map the antigenic determinants, we produced a series of AQP4 mutants based on multiple alignment sequence analysis between AQP4 and other OAP-forming AQPs. Mutations were introduced in the three extracellular loops (A, C, and E), and the binding capacity of NMO sera was tested on AQP4 mutants. Results indicate that one group of sera was able to recognize a limited portion of loop C containing the amino acid sequence (146)GVT(T/M)V(150). A second group of sera was characterized by a predominant role of loop A. Deletion of four AQP4-specific amino acids ((61)G(S/T)E(N/K)(64)) in loop A substantially affected the binding of this group of sera. However, the binding capacity was further reduced when amino acids in loop A were mutated together with those in loop E or when those in loop C were mutated in combination with loop E. Finally, a series of AQP0 mutants were produced in which the extracellular loops were progressively changed to make them identical to AQP4. Results showed that none of the mutants was able to reproduce in AQP0 the NMO-IgG epitopes, indicating that the extracellular loop sequence by itself was not sufficient to determine the rearrangement required to create the epitopes. Although our data highlight the complexity of the disease, this study identifies key immunodominant epitopes and provides direct evidence that the transition from AQP4 tetramers to AQP4-OAPs involves conformational changes of the extracellular loops