Climate change and agricultural land use in Sweden

The purpose of this literature review is to create a base of information to identify gaps of knowledge in the assessment of the effects of climate change on agriculture in Sweden, and related effects of agricultural adaptation and mitigation measures. The review is a part of a project (FANAN, Fogelfors et al. 2008) at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences aiming at making a strategic analysis of future research needs for agriculture in Sweden, and should help in answering the following questions: What are the expected impacts of climate change on agricultural production and its effects on environment, which are the suggested methods for mitigation and adaptation, and what is the scientific base on which these assessments stands? The work has been done in the following way: Literature has basically been searched for on the “Web of Science”. The review has focused on scientific literature, although the literature has also been searched on the whole “Web”, and several references have been found elsewhere in a non-systematic way. The limited number of researchers involved and time available for the study allowed only a few topics to be thoroughly examined. References within many topics are though cited, but the list is incomplete. Thus the reference list should not be regarded to be complete. Mainly abstracts have been read and analysed for results, conclusions and methods. The text has basically the character of citations using expressions close to those of the authors of the articles, although our own analyses were now and then unavoidable. All evaluations by us, the authors of this report, are intended to be concentrated to the summary. The citations are structured in relation to the questions they give answers to. The reader is recommended to use the questions to find the information of her/his interest. The study was financed by the Faculty of Natural Resources and Agricultural Science at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences and the authors would like to thank colleagues at the Departments for Crop Production Ecology, Economy, Animal Nutrition and Management, and Soil and Environment for contributions and kind help

Modelling radiation use, water and nitrogen in willow forest

In this paper it was investigated to what extent it is necessary to include estimates of site nitrogen (N) conditions for prediction of biomass production of short rotation willow (Salix sp.) forests in Sweden. At the same time it was tested a growth model, that can be parameterised from a very limited amount of soil information of the site concerned and still is believed to mimic major effects of N dynamics on growth. The willow growth model consists of three main modules: one for simulation of annual biomass production, one for daily water conditions and one for daily soil nitrogen conditions. Stem biomass production is predicted from the fraction of solar radiation intercepted, radiation use efficiency, shoot age and mortality and water and nitrogen availability. Nitrogen limitation to biomass production, was estimated as a seasonal N availability factor. This factor is estimated as the difference between seasonal plant N demand, and the seasonal net supply of N to the soil mineral N pool. The water and nitrogen modules were parameterised and calibrated for a clay soil and for a loamy sandy soil, as simulated by detailed soil heat, water, nitrogen and carbon models (SOIL and SOILN), that were tested elsewhere. Parameter values of other soil types were estimated with help of USDA soil classification. The model was applied to 22 field experiments located at five different sites in southern Sweden. They differed in weather conditions, soil type and fertilisation level (N treatment). The model was able to explain 82 - 86 % of the observed variations in harvested biomass and 33 - 41 % of the variations in annual production. Taking into account the soil N conditions improved the model predictions of variations in harvested biomass as caused by N treatments, from 70 % to 82 %. Model predictions of the variations in annual production, or in harvest production of stands within the same N treatment, were not improved. It is concluded, that for site conditions of willow forest plantations in Sweden, differences in N treatments are more important than differences in natural soil N availability between sites, and that differences in N availability between sites, due to fertilisation, are more important than differences in water availability or solar energy absorption, in determining variations in harvested biomass

54 An Evaluation of Climate Change Effects on Crop Production

Ecosystem Health and Sustainable Agricultur

54 An Evaluation of Climate Change Effects on Crop Production

Ecosystem Health and Sustainable Agricultur

54 An Evaluation of Climate Change Effects on Crop Production

Ecosystem Health and Sustainable Agricultur